Demographic Transition of Greece

How could the population potentially go back into an increasing rate?

1. Population could be boosted by the Greek economy adapting to make it where workers, (such as primary-sector workers) will immigrate more into Greece to boost the population

2. Greek government encouraging people to have families through various propaganda campaigns

Estimated Demographic Transition Stage in 2050

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It seems like Greece in 2050 will be in Stage 4, due to the estimated low CBR and CDR statistics belonging to the year 2050

Demographic Transition of Greece

Alexander Yazji - A

What are some potential reasons that the population of Greece is going into decline?

DTM Analysis

1. The economy has fallen drastically, meaning that older people dont have much funds to pay for life support, along with those struggling income families supporting children.

2. Greece hasn't always had the highest declining birth rate, as it has been under 12 since 1985 and hasnt went higher since then

3. People have recently been emigrating, possibly due to their financial status and the limited job and career oppurtunities. For Example: Education

The Demographic Transition of Greece from 1960 to 2015

The demographic transition for Greece is showing that the percent of those older people are increasing in comparison to those of the youth ages in the population pyramid, as Greece is currently in stage 4 of the demographic transition. This cause of stage 4 could be the drastic economic downfall in Greece, or the opportunities are very limited

According to the population pyramids regarding Greece from the years 1960-2015, it shows that the stages of the DTM beginning to alter a bit. In 1960, it seems to be that it has a high CBR of 18.9, however a low CDR of 7.3, suggesting that it is in stage 3 of the DTM. In the year 2015, it seems to be that it the CBR has significantly decreased to 8.5 , while the CDR has increased to 11.2. It can be suggested that the population of Greece in 2015 has transitioned into stage 4, as the population pyramid has bulked out evenly, along with a low CBR and CDR.

Population Pyramid Analysis

The population pyramids in the years 1985 and 2015 show that the population is going into a declining rate. For reference, the population pyramid of the year 1985 seems equal, as the youth has a slight advantage over the elders. However, in the population pyramid for Greece in 2015 displays the percentages of the middle-aged people seem to bulk out, in fact even more than the youth, showing how Greece currently has an aging population

Population Pyramid - Greece 1960 and 2015

CBR, CDR, and NIR of Greece 1960-2015

Population Pyramid Statistics

What is Demographic Transition?

2015:

1960:

What is Dependency Ratio?

Dependency Ratio is the statistic that shows the people by age group who are in the age group from around 15-39, which is the approximate age of those in the labor force. People from the ages 0-14, or 60 and above are usually considered in the age range that are usually not in the labor force.

How does the dependency ratio idea effect the population in Greece?

According to statistics, it has been shown that the dependency ratio in 1985 was approximately 53.58, while in 2015 it had decreased to 52.7. A possible reason could be that people may be retiring at a later age, meaning that they would not be considered part of this dependency ratio. Even though the difference is minor, it still shows how less people are in the work force, meaning that there could be an income decrease.

CBR (Crude Birth Rate): 8.5

CDR (Crude Death Rate): 11.2

NIR (Natural Increase Rate): -2.7

TFR (Total Fertility Rate): 0.54

Sex Ratio:

0-14 years: 1.04 men/women

15-29 years: 1.07 men/women

30-44 years: 1.03 men/women

45-59 years: 0.95 men/women

60+ years: 0.82 men/women

The "Demographic Transition Model" is a model that is able to represent whether a population is going to increase rapidly, stay stable, or decrease. These statements can be determined by the 4 stages of the DTM, which shows the percentage of age groups in a population, along with the percentages of males and females

CBR (Crude Birth Rate): 18.9

CDR (Crude Death Rate): 7.3

NIR (Natural Increase Rate): 11.6

TFR (Total Fertility Rate): 2.23

Sex Ratio:

0-14 years: 1.07 men/women

15-29 years: 0.98 men/women

30-44 years: o.92 men/women

45-59 years: 0.96 men/women

60+ years: 0.75 men/women

Sex Ratio Analysis

In 2015, all age groups under 45 have a sex ratio of men/women which is above 1, meaning that the Greek population is rapidly changing. In the past 50 years before 2015, the majority of the Greek population had consisted of women. Greece will be impacted due to men outnumbering women as jobs may become male-favored. As of 2017, service jobs (most of whom are women) made up 79.1% of the GDP of Greece. Over time this might decrease, as there will be less women in service jobs. This could possibly be hurting the economy even more, as service jobs make up most of the economy of Greece.