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AEDC's 2017 Economic Forecast for Anchorage, Alaska

AEDC Economic Forecast Luncheon on Feb. 1, 2017
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AEDC Anchorage, AK

on 11 February 2017

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Transcript of AEDC's 2017 Economic Forecast for Anchorage, Alaska

50.5
BIG
SPONSORED BY
AEDC ECONOMIC
Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2017
2016
-2,700 jobs
5.3% avg.
2016
RECAP
unemployment
FORECAST FOR ANCHORAGE
Decline
-2,200 jobs

OIL & GAS
Decline
-200
HEALTH CARE
Growth
+400
TRANSPORTATION
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES
Decline
-400
CONSTRUCTION
Decline
-400
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
Decline
-300
RETAIL TRADE
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
GOVERNMENT
Decline
-300
picture
Business
CONFIDENCE
Index (BCi) Report
SPONSORED BY
INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEX
OVERALL MESSAGE
FORECAST LUNCHEON
www.AEDC
web
.com

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Department of Revenue, U.S. Energy Information Administration and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
By 2025, Anchorage is the #1 city in America to
LIVE
,
WORK
&

PLAY
.
YEAR OF THE KYZER
Health Care
+900
Leisure & Hospitality
-100
Financial Activities
-100
Government
-100
Transportation
-100
Retail Trade
-300
Oil & Gas
-700
Construction
-700
Professional & Business Services
-1,100
2016 Anchorage Employment Numbers
BARRIERS TO GROWTH
Thank you!
Join us July 26, 2017
AEDC 2017 Three-Year Outlook Luncheon

Find all of today's reports online
2017
@AEDCweb
live tweeting
#AEDCLunch
By 2025, Anchorage will be the #1 city in America to
Live, Work and Play.

LAST YEAR, 2015:
#37
#2
#13
2017 ECONOMIC
Employment Forecast
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2017
Decline
-200
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
2017 Forecast
"OTHER" SECTORS
Decline
-200
2017 Forecast
Other sectors include:
Private Education
Wholesale Trade
Information
Manufacturing
Other Services
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
2017
2017 Business Confidence Index Survey
2017 Forecast
Anchorage will lose 2,200 jobs in 2017.
Do you agree with the following statement,
"The only reasonable solution to achieve long-term fiscal stability for the State of Alaska is a measured combination of cuts, new revenues and growth."
facebook.com/AnchorageLWP
instagram.com/iloveanchorage
COMPILED BY
compiled by
Anchorage Oil & Gas Employment and ANS Price per Barrel, 2004-2016
*Estimate based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
ANCHORAGE ECONOMY INDEX
The future rests on:
Solving the state fiscal crisis
Improving Anchorage’s foundations
Laying out a plan to expand our economy
Stable oil prices and higher production
2016 Q4
Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index (ANCi) Results
Sponsored by
Compiled by
Q4 composite rose to 52.0, the first rise in confidence since 2014 Q3
Personal Financial Confidence rose to 63.2
Expectations of the Future rose to 45.2
52.2
56.6
57.6
2016
LIVE
2016
2016
WORK
PLAY
#27
#17
#13
Apartment rental cost
Cost of Living Index
Share of homes affordable for median income households
Percentage of population reporting health as "good" or "better"
IMPROVED
Library visits per capita
Percent of respondents who are not obese
Diversity Index
Violent crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
Property crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
DECLINED
Percent of population 25 & older who are high school graduates or higher
Mean travel time to work
Unemployment rate
Percent of population 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree or higher
Per capita personal income
Average monthly earnings
Net job flows
Gender pay equity

IMPROVED
Median household income
Percent of population above poverty level
DECLINED
Arts-related jobs per 1,000 city residents
Performing arts establishments per 100,000 residents
Live.

Work.

Play.

Metrics are available in the LWP Report Card
33.7
Anchorage Cost of Living Index (COLI)
2016
Grocery Items....................
Housing...............................
Utilities................................
Transportation..................
Health Care........................
Misc. Goods & Services
{130.2}
{132.4}
{149.9}
{100.1}
{112.9}
{143.5}
{125.8}
20th
6th
Overall Index.............
20th
112th
36th
3rd
5th
www.AEDC
web
.com/
Live
-
Work
-
Play
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
Issues & Projects Important for the
Future of Anchorage's Economy
Sustainability of State of Alaska operating budget
86%
Retaining & expanding existing Anchorage businesses
53%
60%
Community & neighborhood safety
Declining North Slope oil production
69%
48%
Cook Inlet resource development
Do you support the establishment of a municipal sales tax to offset business & residential property taxes in Anchorage?
Issue Question #2:
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
Issue Question #1:
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
Businesses somewhat optimistic about their own profits and revenues, but remain very pessimistic about the broader economy.
Business leaders want a complete set of solutions to the state fiscal issues this year.
Of 9 metrics, 4 improved & 3 declined.
Of 13 metrics, 2 improved & 8 declined.
Of 10 metrics, 2 improved & 2 declined.
THE
VIRTUOUS
CYCLE
AREAS OF FOCUS
WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
HOUSING
WORKPLACE WELL-BEING
COMMUNITY SAFETY
TRAILS INITIATIVE
CREATIVE PLACEMAKING
ONE ANCHORAGE, ONE ECONOMY
POPULATION
Decrease
-1,500
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2017 Forecast
50.1
87%
67%
61%
Condition of the state economy
Health insurance
Condition of the national economy
IMPROVED
DECLINED
Decline
-200
Decline
-400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016*
2017
AEDC Monthly Employment Reports
Available at www.AEDCweb.com
Anchorage Inflation Rate
0.4%
Moderate to Significant
58%
Availability of professional/technical workforce
56%
Cost of labor
A Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for Anchorage
• Partnership between the Municipality of Anchorage and AEDC
• Driven by survey of businesses and the community that ends 02/28
• Steering Committee will develop SWOT and 5-year plan
• Targeted for completion by October 2017

CEDS
Anchorage’s Strengths
• Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport
• Alaska Native Corporations
• Expertise about the environment we live in
• Tourism
• JBER
• K12 and post-secondary schools
• The diversity of Anchorage
• Growing health care industry jobs
Anchorage’s Weaknesses
• Cost and availability of housing
• Cost of health care
• Continuing shortage of skilled/technical workers
• Significant reliance on oil and government

Anchorage’s Opportunities
Air cargo-based industries
Downtown
U-Med District
Girdwood
Chugiak-Eagle River
Entrepreneurship
Craft brewing/distilling
Marijuana manufacturing/retail

Anchorage’s Threats
• The State fails to solve the fiscal crisis
• Potential health care jobs bubble
• Lack of long-term view of the economy
• Trends in violent crime & property crimes
• The uncertain global future for oil & gas industry

Business and consumer optimism positive but fragile
Other 2016 Key Indicators
406 total Alaska bankruptcies

616 total Alaska foreclosures

2,917 single family home sales in 2016

$364,132 avg. sale price single family home

-8% from 2015/51st in U.S.
-4% from 2015/50th in U.S.
3rd best year since 2007
-0.3% from 2015
Full transcript