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Do you support the establishment of a municipal sales tax to offset business & residential property taxes in Anchorage?

Issue Question #2:

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

SPONSORED BY

Business

Do you agree with the following statement,

"The only reasonable solution to achieve long-term fiscal stability for the State of Alaska is a measured combination of cuts, new revenues and growth."

Issue Question #1:

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

2017

Index (BCi) Report

CONFIDENCE

COMPILED BY

2017

Cook Inlet resource development

Retaining & expanding existing Anchorage businesses

Community & neighborhood safety

48%

Declining North Slope oil production

53%

Sustainability of State of Alaska operating budget

AEDC ECONOMIC

60%

Issues & Projects Important for the

Future of Anchorage's Economy

69%

86%

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

FORECAST LUNCHEON

56%

58%

61%

Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2017

Cost of labor

67%

Condition of the national economy

Availability of professional/technical workforce

Health insurance

87%

Condition of the state economy

BARRIERS TO GROWTH

Moderate to Significant

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

INDICATORS

Anchorage’s Weaknesses

50.5

50.1

COMPOSITE INDEX

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

56.6

33.7

ANCHORAGE ECONOMY INDEX

2017 Business Confidence Index Report

52.2

@AEDCweb live tweeting #AEDCLunch

• Cost and availability of housing

• Cost of health care

• Continuing shortage of skilled/technical workers

• Significant reliance on oil and government

57.6

Anchorage’s Threats

• The State fails to solve the fiscal crisis

• Potential health care jobs bubble

• Lack of long-term view of the economy

• Trends in violent crime & property crimes

• The uncertain global future for oil & gas industry

A Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for Anchorage

Anchorage’s Opportunities

• Partnership between the Municipality of Anchorage and AEDC

• Driven by survey of businesses and the community that ends 02/28

• Steering Committee will develop SWOT and 5-year plan

• Targeted for completion by October 2017

Anchorage’s Strengths

Sponsored by

  • Air cargo-based industries
  • Downtown
  • U-Med District
  • Girdwood
  • Chugiak-Eagle River
  • Entrepreneurship
  • Craft brewing/distilling
  • Marijuana manufacturing/retail

2016 Q4

Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index (ANCi) Results

CEDS

Compiled by

2017 Business Confidence Index Survey

  • Q4 composite rose to 52.0, the first rise in confidence since 2014 Q3
  • Personal Financial Confidence rose to 63.2
  • Expectations of the Future rose to 45.2

OVERALL MESSAGE

THE

VIRTUOUS

CYCLE

• Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport

• Alaska Native Corporations

• Expertise about the environment we live in

• Tourism

• JBER

• K12 and post-secondary schools

• The diversity of Anchorage

• Growing health care industry jobs

Businesses somewhat optimistic about their own profits and revenues, but remain very pessimistic about the broader economy.

AREAS OF FOCUS

  • WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
  • HOUSING
  • WORKPLACE WELL-BEING
  • COMMUNITY SAFETY
  • TRAILS INITIATIVE
  • CREATIVE PLACEMAKING
  • ONE ANCHORAGE, ONE ECONOMY

By 2025, Anchorage is the #1 city in America to LIVE, WORK & PLAY.

Business leaders want a complete set of solutions to the state fiscal issues this year.

2016

Anchorage Cost of Living Index (COLI)

20th

{130.2}

Overall Index.............

6th

{132.4}

20th

{149.9}

facebook.com/AnchorageLWP

112th

{100.1}

compiled by

36th

Grocery Items....................

Housing...............................

Utilities................................

Transportation..................

Health Care........................

Misc. Goods & Services

{112.9}

3rd

{143.5}

5th

{125.8}

instagram.com/iloveanchorage

By 2025, Anchorage will be the #1 city in America to

Live, Work and Play.

www.AEDCweb.com/Live-Work-Play

2017 Forecast

BIG

picture

#37

Anchorage will lose 2,200 jobs in 2017.

LAST YEAR, 2015:

#13

Business and consumer optimism positive but fragile

#2

The future rests on:

Live. Work. Play.

Metrics are available in the LWP Report Card

2016

RECAP

  • Solving the state fiscal crisis
  • Improving Anchorage’s foundations
  • Laying out a plan to expand our economy
  • Stable oil prices and higher production

2016

#27

2016

-2,700 jobs

Of 9 metrics, 4 improved & 3 declined.

LIVE

DECLINED

5.3% avg.

  • Diversity Index
  • Violent crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
  • Property crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)

unemployment

IMPROVED

#17

Of 13 metrics, 2 improved & 8 declined.

2016

  • Apartment rental cost
  • Cost of Living Index
  • Share of homes affordable for median income households
  • Percentage of population reporting health as "good" or "better"

WORK

DECLINED

  • Percent of population 25 & older who are high school graduates or higher
  • Mean travel time to work
  • Unemployment rate
  • Percent of population 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree or higher
  • Per capita personal income
  • Average monthly earnings
  • Net job flows
  • Gender pay equity

#13

IMPROVED

  • Median household income
  • Percent of population above poverty level

2016

Of 10 metrics, 2 improved & 2 declined.

PLAY

DECLINED

  • Arts-related jobs per 1,000 city residents
  • Performing arts establishments per 100,000 residents

2016 Anchorage Employment Numbers

IMPROVED

  • Library visits per capita
  • Percent of respondents who are not obese

Health Care +900

Leisure & Hospitality -100

Financial Activities -100

Government -100

Transportation -100

Retail Trade -300

Oil & Gas -700

Construction -700

Professional & Business Services -1,100

AEDC Monthly Employment Reports

Available at www.AEDCweb.com

2017 ECONOMIC

Other 2016 Key Indicators

-8% from 2015/51st in U.S.

FORECAST FOR ANCHORAGE

-4% from 2015/50th in U.S.

406 total Alaska bankruptcies

616 total Alaska foreclosures

2,917 single family home sales in 2016

$364,132 avg. sale price single family home

3rd best year since 2007

-0.3% from 2015

Thank you!

SPONSORED BY

Find all of today's reports online

2017 Forecast

LEISURE & HOSPITALITY

Growth +400

2017 Forecast

Decline -300

FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES

PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES

HEALTH CARE

Decline -200

2017 Forecast

"OTHER" SECTORS

Decline -300

2017 Forecast

GOVERNMENT

Decline -200

Other sectors include:

  • Private Education
  • Wholesale Trade
  • Information
  • Manufacturing
  • Other Services

2017 Forecast

Decline -400

www.AEDCweb.com

RETAIL TRADE

2017

2016*

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2017 Forecast

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

Decline -400

CONSTRUCTION

Decline -200

OIL & GAS

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

2017 Forecast

Decline -200

TRANSPORTATION

Anchorage Oil & Gas Employment and ANS Price per Barrel, 2004-2016

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

*Estimate based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Department of Revenue, U.S. Energy Information Administration and McDowell Group.

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

Join us July 26, 2017

AEDC 2017 Three-Year Outlook Luncheon

0.4%

2017 Forecast

Anchorage Inflation Rate

Decrease -1,500

POPULATION

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

2017

Employment Forecast

Decline -2,200 jobs

*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.

Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.

YEAR OF THE KYZER

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