Do you support the establishment of a municipal sales tax to offset business & residential property taxes in Anchorage?
Issue Question #2:
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
SPONSORED BY
Business
Do you agree with the following statement,
"The only reasonable solution to achieve long-term fiscal stability for the State of Alaska is a measured combination of cuts, new revenues and growth."
Issue Question #1:
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
2017
Index (BCi) Report
CONFIDENCE
COMPILED BY
2017
Cook Inlet resource development
Retaining & expanding existing Anchorage businesses
Community & neighborhood safety
48%
Declining North Slope oil production
53%
Sustainability of State of Alaska operating budget
AEDC ECONOMIC
60%
Issues & Projects Important for the
Future of Anchorage's Economy
69%
86%
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
FORECAST LUNCHEON
56%
58%
61%
Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2017
Cost of labor
67%
Condition of the national economy
Availability of professional/technical workforce
Health insurance
87%
Condition of the state economy
BARRIERS TO GROWTH
Moderate to Significant
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
INDICATORS
Anchorage’s Weaknesses
50.5
50.1
COMPOSITE INDEX
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
56.6
33.7
ANCHORAGE ECONOMY INDEX
2017 Business Confidence Index Report
52.2
@AEDCweb live tweeting #AEDCLunch
• Cost and availability of housing
• Cost of health care
• Continuing shortage of skilled/technical workers
• Significant reliance on oil and government
57.6
Anchorage’s Threats
• The State fails to solve the fiscal crisis
• Potential health care jobs bubble
• Lack of long-term view of the economy
• Trends in violent crime & property crimes
• The uncertain global future for oil & gas industry
A Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy for Anchorage
Anchorage’s Opportunities
• Partnership between the Municipality of Anchorage and AEDC
• Driven by survey of businesses and the community that ends 02/28
• Steering Committee will develop SWOT and 5-year plan
• Targeted for completion by October 2017
Anchorage’s Strengths
Sponsored by
- Air cargo-based industries
- Downtown
- U-Med District
- Girdwood
- Chugiak-Eagle River
- Entrepreneurship
- Craft brewing/distilling
- Marijuana manufacturing/retail
2016 Q4
Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index (ANCi) Results
CEDS
Compiled by
2017 Business Confidence Index Survey
- Q4 composite rose to 52.0, the first rise in confidence since 2014 Q3
- Personal Financial Confidence rose to 63.2
- Expectations of the Future rose to 45.2
OVERALL MESSAGE
• Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport
• Alaska Native Corporations
• Expertise about the environment we live in
• Tourism
• JBER
• K12 and post-secondary schools
• The diversity of Anchorage
• Growing health care industry jobs
Businesses somewhat optimistic about their own profits and revenues, but remain very pessimistic about the broader economy.
- WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
- HOUSING
- WORKPLACE WELL-BEING
- COMMUNITY SAFETY
- TRAILS INITIATIVE
- CREATIVE PLACEMAKING
- ONE ANCHORAGE, ONE ECONOMY
By 2025, Anchorage is the #1 city in America to LIVE, WORK & PLAY.
Business leaders want a complete set of solutions to the state fiscal issues this year.
2016
Anchorage Cost of Living Index (COLI)
20th
{130.2}
Overall Index.............
6th
{132.4}
20th
{149.9}
facebook.com/AnchorageLWP
112th
{100.1}
compiled by
36th
Grocery Items....................
Housing...............................
Utilities................................
Transportation..................
Health Care........................
Misc. Goods & Services
{112.9}
3rd
{143.5}
5th
{125.8}
instagram.com/iloveanchorage
By 2025, Anchorage will be the #1 city in America to
Live, Work and Play.
www.AEDCweb.com/Live-Work-Play
2017 Forecast
BIG
picture
#37
Anchorage will lose 2,200 jobs in 2017.
LAST YEAR, 2015:
#13
Business and consumer optimism positive but fragile
#2
The future rests on:
Live. Work. Play.
Metrics are available in the LWP Report Card
2016
RECAP
- Solving the state fiscal crisis
- Improving Anchorage’s foundations
- Laying out a plan to expand our economy
- Stable oil prices and higher production
2016
#27
2016
-2,700 jobs
Of 9 metrics, 4 improved & 3 declined.
LIVE
DECLINED
5.3% avg.
- Diversity Index
- Violent crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
- Property crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
unemployment
IMPROVED
#17
Of 13 metrics, 2 improved & 8 declined.
2016
- Apartment rental cost
- Cost of Living Index
- Share of homes affordable for median income households
- Percentage of population reporting health as "good" or "better"
WORK
DECLINED
- Percent of population 25 & older who are high school graduates or higher
- Mean travel time to work
- Unemployment rate
- Percent of population 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree or higher
- Per capita personal income
- Average monthly earnings
- Net job flows
- Gender pay equity
#13
IMPROVED
- Median household income
- Percent of population above poverty level
2016
Of 10 metrics, 2 improved & 2 declined.
PLAY
DECLINED
- Arts-related jobs per 1,000 city residents
- Performing arts establishments per 100,000 residents
2016 Anchorage Employment Numbers
IMPROVED
- Library visits per capita
- Percent of respondents who are not obese
Health Care +900
Leisure & Hospitality -100
Financial Activities -100
Government -100
Transportation -100
Retail Trade -300
Oil & Gas -700
Construction -700
Professional & Business Services -1,100
AEDC Monthly Employment Reports
Available at www.AEDCweb.com
2017 ECONOMIC
Other 2016 Key Indicators
-8% from 2015/51st in U.S.
FORECAST FOR ANCHORAGE
-4% from 2015/50th in U.S.
406 total Alaska bankruptcies
616 total Alaska foreclosures
2,917 single family home sales in 2016
$364,132 avg. sale price single family home
3rd best year since 2007
-0.3% from 2015
Thank you!
Find all of today's reports online
2017 Forecast
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
Growth +400
2017 Forecast
Decline -300
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES
HEALTH CARE
Decline -200
2017 Forecast
"OTHER" SECTORS
Decline -300
2017 Forecast
GOVERNMENT
Decline -200
Other sectors include:
- Private Education
- Wholesale Trade
- Information
- Manufacturing
- Other Services
2017 Forecast
Decline -400
www.AEDCweb.com
RETAIL TRADE
2017 Forecast
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
Decline -400
CONSTRUCTION
Decline -200
OIL & GAS
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2017 Forecast
Decline -200
TRANSPORTATION
Anchorage Oil & Gas Employment and ANS Price per Barrel, 2004-2016
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimate based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Department of Revenue, U.S. Energy Information Administration and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
Join us July 26, 2017
AEDC 2017 Three-Year Outlook Luncheon
0.4%
2017 Forecast
Anchorage Inflation Rate
Decrease -1,500
POPULATION
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2017
Employment Forecast
Decline -2,200 jobs
*Estimated based on preliminary 2016 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.