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Classical, Empirical, & Subjective Probability
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Classical, Empirical, & Subjective Probability
Empirical Probability
Classical Probability
- observes the number of occurrences through experimentation
- calculates probability from a relative frequency distribution
- through the equation:
Subjective Probability
- We know the number of possible outcomes of the interested event
- through the equation:
P[A]= number of outcome in the event
total number of possible outcomes
P[A]= frequency of the event
- based on personal judgement through experience and intuition
- no calculation needed
total number of observations
For example...
3 1 6 3 2 4 5 3 2 6
2 5 3 1 5 2 4 1 5 3
percentage
# of observations
{1,1} {2,1} {3,1} {4,1} {5,1} {6,1}
{1,2} {2,2} {3,2} {4,2} {5,2} {6,2}
{1,3} {2,3} {3,3} {4,3} {5,3} {6,3}
{1,4} {2,4} {3,4} {4,4} {4,5} {4,6}
{1,5} {2,5} {3,5} {4,5} {5,5} {6,5}
{1,6} {2,6} {3,6} {4,6} {5,6} {6,6}
# on dice
3/20=0.15
4/20=0.20
5/20=0.25
2/20=0.10
4/20=0.20
2/20=0.10
1
2
3
4
5
6
3
4
5
2
4
2
total=20
P[A]=6/36=0.16