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Nordic Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
49
Growth in Nordic transport demand
Presentation of key results
30 years ahead on electricity decarbonisation
2
Global carbon intensity of electricity (gCO /kWh)
Partners
Demand sectors most challenging
Three Strategic Actions
Space heating energy intensity
in Nordic buildings
126
0.8%
2
annual improvement, 1990-2013
kWh/m in 2013
60
2.2%
2
annual improvement, 2013-2050
kWh/m in 2050
More variable electricity supply
Transforming the energy system
Decoupling emissions from transport activity
Nordic Total Primary Energy Supply in the CNS
Rapid electrification of transport
Nordic stock of cars and light commercial vehicles in the CNS
Early nuclear phase-out increases emissions
Nordic nuclear capacity in the CNS and a fast phase-out sensitivity analysis
Decoupling energy demand from floor area
2050
2015
Electricity trade:
Long-distance transport
23 GW
5 GW
- Interconnectors to Europe -
125 TWh
28 TWh
- Trade activity with Europe -
53 TWh
- Net export to Europe -
14 TWh
15%
Supply
import dependency
for biomass in 2050,
up from 8% in 2013
System
Oslo
Urban leadership in transport electrification
Transport final energy demand
Demand
5-6 GW
1-2 GW
5-6 GW
in 2050
CCS critical in industry
Nordic industrial emissions in 2050
Policy recommendations
Three Strategic Actions
1. Strengthen incentives for flexibility
2. Nordic cooperation on grids and markets
3. Ramp up industrial innovation
4. Utilise proven policies in transport
Thank you
www.nordicetp.org
www.iea.org/etp/nordic
- Download figures, data and slides
Total
Captured
20 Mt CO
7 Mt CO
2
7%
today
Ramp up decarbonisation of long-distance transport and the industrial sector
3.
Process emissions as a share
of industrial CO emissions
2
Ramp up decarbonisation of long-distance
transport and the industrial sector
3.
2
Point sources of CO ,
2013
Visualisation of Nordic CO emissions, 2013
2
31%
in 2050
Tap into the positive momentum of cities in transport and buildings
2.
3-4 GW
of utility-scale
heat pumps in 2050
(10x today's level)
Incentivise and plan for a more distributed, interconnected and flexible energy system
1.
Incentivise and plan for a more distributed, interconnected and flexible energy system
1.
Tap into the positive momentum of cities
in transport and buildings
2.
Global and Nordic CO emissions (indexed)
2
Tap into the positive momentum of cities in transport and buildings
2.
Nordic CO emissions in the CNS
2
3-4 GW
of utility-scale
heat pumps in 2050