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DISPLACE - Introduction to Model Architecture & Parameterization
16
DISPLACE
A Dynamic Individual-Vessel based Modelling for Fishing Planning and Spatial Displacement
Introduction to model architecture
& parameterisation
DISPLACE
like a flight simulator...
...economic and ecological performance
of alternative spatial plans
...a simulator is needed because likely no analytical solution when user react to the controls
a modelling approach to anticipate interlinked effects on fish and fisheries of alternative management and spatial plans
Do you need
www.displace-project.org
tutorials
fba@aqua.dtu.dk
The template:
Images used under license from Shutterstock.com and colourbox.com
http://prezi.com/7txrmkstwsze/free-fall-template/
Mistakes or uncertain parameterization is likely to create crashes...which are still hard to detect (WIP)
Help?
Hands in the c++ code?
Look at individual vessels
<>
...and account for diversity
...and individual footprint
from Tamás Székely Jr. and Kevin Burrage 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um255Aud2Nkhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Um255Aud2Nk
Agent-Based Modelling....
....type of
...doesn´t stick to the law of the large numbers...
instead it is recognized that the dynamic of the system can be strongly non-linear therefore sometime leading to some bifurcations from divergent individual trajectories magnified by different initial conditions..So the final statistics/risk probabilities should reflect large uncertainty interval when e.g. two different modes are produced!
In our case ABM is to go beyond an *average* vessel approach by saying that all the uncertainties at the individual scales do not compensate to statistically leading to the median outcome....
Law of large numbers does not apply e.g. in the case of the Simpson paradox justifying that ABM + decision trees approach to capture non linearity is a way forward to avoid bias from high level of aggregation models...
other uses
A graphical user interface to help parameterize, run several simulations, compare and explore the outcomes, store in sql databases and replay simulations, etc.
....type of
...or all outputs in simple text files and use R post-processing routines to produce table & figures......
outcomes
Code repository
10 steps
...alteratively to the ui, a large number of simulations/replicates can be generated using shell scripts in command line mode and making benefit of High Performance Computing facilities
....for parameterization
Logbooks coupled to VMS data (at best)
Geographical arena crafting (grid of cells/nodes at sea e.g. of 4 by 4 km and harbour nodes)
Stock biological features (N at size, Wt at size, growth transition matrix, etc.)
Spatial distribution of stocks
Fish prices on harbour nodes
Metier building for size-based selectivity accounting for gear type
Individual vessel building incl. specific fishing grounds and harbours
Stock-, vessel-, and metier- specific spatial catch rate
Other non-explicit vessels depleting on stocks
Scenario crafting including TAC mngt, fishing closure, (fishing credits), etc. and decision trees possibly indexed on external time series
...to understand the intertwined dynamics
DISPLACE
input data
but still possible to look at spatial
e.g. lgbooks, VMS, ICES, fishbase,
surveys like IBTS , GIS layers
Parameterisation
routines
Raw input data
Model structure
Graphical/GIS
User Interface
detail...
Simulator
core model
High Performance
Computing
report
Plots &
tables
post processing routines
...for Windows and Linux
...then take a
bird's eye
For users, testing the software with an illustrative dataset:
view
of the bigger picture
http://displace-project.org/blog/download/
...emerging outcomes (local knowledge to overall statistics)
https://github.com/frabas/DISPLACE_input
...and individual decision-making
...e.g. where and when to go fishing, when return to port, to which port?
IsInAreaClosure
no
For users, parameterizing a new app:
yes
smartCatch
no
KnowledgeOfThisGround
yes
no
0.00
https://github.com/frabas/DISPLACE_R_inputs
yes
notThatFar
no
yes
KnowledgeOfThisGround
notThatFar
no
1.00
no
yes
1.00
yes
notThatFar
0.50
no
https://github.com/frabas/DISPLACE_R_outputs (Not Yet Public)
yes
0.50
notThatFar
no
0.70
Folder hierarchy
yes
0.70
...from the analysis of fishermen´s behaviour
0.70
For (c++) developers, looking at core simulator and GUI:
https://github.com/frabas/DISPLACE_GUI (Not Yet Public)