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  • First used in the Trinity test in 1945 and then for Hiroshima
  • U-238 naturally occurring and in great abundance
  • Only U-235 is usable in the production of nuclear weapons
  • Uranium must be enriched
  • 2% Natural Uranium
  • 3-19% Low Enriched Uranium
  • 20-90% Highly Enriched Uranium
  • >90% Weapons Grade Uranium
  • Need a significant quantity (SQ) to sustain a chain reaction
  • 25 kg
  • Gun Type Device

Nuclear Arsenals

Nuclear Weapons & War

(Early Contributors to Nuclear Strategy)

USA, USSR/Russia, United Kingdom, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan, South Africa, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine

Herman Kahn

Bernard Brodie

One of the foremost strategists on the use of nuclear weapons in war

Worked at the RAND corporation

Utilized game theory to study nuclear war

Published "On Thermonuclear War" (1960)

"Thus far the chief purpose of our military establishment has been to win wars. From now on its chief purpose must be to avert them." (1946)

Russia

USA

Other States

Approximately 1,480 deployed strategic warheads. The Federation of American Scientists estimates Russia has another 1,022 nondeployed strategic warheads and approximately 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads. Additional thousands are awaiting dismantlement.

Approximately 5,113 nuclear warheads, including tactical, strategic, and nondeployed weapons. According to the latest official New START declaration, the United States deploys 1,654 strategic nuclear warheads on 792 deployed ICBMs, SLBMs, and strategic bombers

  • China: About 240 total warheads.
  • France: Fewer than 300 operational warheads.
  • United Kingdom: Fewer than 160 deployed strategic warheads, total stockpile of up to 225.
  • India: Up to 100 nuclear warheads.
  • Israel: Between 75 to 200 nuclear warheads.
  • Pakistan: Between 90 to 110 nuclear warheads.

Thomas Schelling

  • Wrote seminal texts "The Strategy of Conflict" (1960) and "Arms and Influence" (1966)
  • Argued that conflicts are bargaining situations
  • Introduced the "brinkmanship" game
  • Introduced the logic of deterrence
  • Argued that the goal of war was no longer defeat your enemy, but to be able to threaten their destruction regardless of victory

Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear Testing since 1945

Nuclear Deterrence is simultaneously:

  • a strategy
  • a policy
  • and a theory

Nuclear Weapons & Nuclear Deterrence

Nuclear Deterrence Strategy

Dates of First

Nuclear Tests

Israel &

South Africa

1979? (the

Vela Incident)

  • Deterrence is trying to stop a foe from taking a certain action; it is passive and cedes initiative to the opponent
  • Requires 2 things: capability and credibility of commitment (and the communication of this commitment)
  • Compellence, by contrast, is more active, and typically involves administering punishment until the adversary acts, rather than if he acts.
  • Tactical vs. Strategic Nukes
  • 1st vs. 2nd Strike

USA - 1945

USSR - 1949

UK - 1952

France - 1960

China - 1964

India - 1974

Pakistan - 1998

North Korea - 2006

Nuclear Weapons 101

Nuclear Deterrence Policy

Can be categorized by their fuel source

  • Uranium
  • Plutonium

their design

  • Fission
  • Boosted Fission
  • Fusion (two-stage)

or their altitude

  • Surface Burst
  • Air Burst
  • Subsurface Burst
  • High Altitude Burst

Actions to achieve the predicted effects of deterrence theory, including:

  • Force deployment
  • Platform diversity and redundancy
  • Command and control

Widespread variation in deterrence policy

  • Massive retaliation
  • Flexible response
  • Minimal deterrence

Altitude (and why it matters)

Air Burst

  • Above ground level, below 30km
  • Maximizes blast effects and dispersion of radiation

Surface Burst

  • Fireball touches ground, causes "fallout," radiation highly localized and intense, highly affected by wind patterns

Subsurface Burst

  • Highly localized, create large craters, extreme fallout

High Altitude Burst

  • Fireball expands much more rapidly, can cause extensive damage to communication and electrical systems

Plutonium Bombs

  • First used on Nagasaki
  • Plutonium produced as a byproduct of the irradiation of uranium
  • Produced in some amount in virtually every nuclear reactor
  • Any isotope of plutonium can be used in the production of nuclear weapons (US proved this)
  • P-239 most valued because of its low spontaneous fission rate
  • Implosion type devices
  • 12 kg for an SQ

Uranium Bombs

Boosted Fission Device

Fusion Device

  • Also called a two-stage device
  • Consists of Primary and Secondary
  • Most conducive for miniaturization
  • Necessary for higher yields
  • Virtually no limit to max yield (tzar bomba - 50MT)

Nuclear Deterrence Theory

Nuclear Explosions 101

  • Numerous versions of deterrence theory exist
  • Originated with Herman Kahn, Thomas Schelling, Albert Wohstetter (mostly at the RAND corporation)
  • Each country had their own particular version, some similar, some not

What is a nuclear explosion?

  • A rapid exponentially increasing release of energy resulting from the fissioning of fissile material
  • Fissile material is any element capable of fissioning when subject to relatively low values of energy.

Kahn's 3 Types

Consequences of Deterrence

  • Type I deterrence as “deterrence against a direct attack” (1960; 126)
  • Type II deterrence as “using strategic threats to deter an enemy from engaging in very provocative acts, other than a direct attack on the United States itself” (1960)
  • Type III, or “tit-for-tat” deterrence, he defines as “graduated,” or “controlled” deterrence, and “refers to acts that are deterred because the potential aggressor is afraid that the defender or others will then take limited actions, military or nonmilitary, that will make the aggression profitable” (1960; 126).

Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)

Stability-Instability Paradox

Other Forms

Elements of A Nuclear Explosion

  • 50% of the energy is in the blast
  • 35% as thermal radiation; made up of a wide range of the electromagnetic spectrum, including infrared, visible, and ultraviolet light and some soft x-ray emitted at the time of the explosion
  • 15% as nuclear radiation; including 5% as initial ionizing radiation consisting chiefly of neutrons and gamma rays emitted within the first minute after detonation, and 10% as residual nuclear radiation. Residual nuclear radiation is the hazard in fallout.

General Deterrence - Deterring aggresive action in general against yourself or an ally, aka strategic deterrence

Immediate Deterrence - Deterring specific instances of aggression

Extended Deterrence (both general and immediate forms) - Deterring aggresive action against an ally

Does Deterrence Deter?

Was the Cold War cold only because nuclear weapons existed?

Mueller - "Essential Irrelevance" argument

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