NAMA e-learning CH7 - Identification of NAMAs

Module 3: NAMA Design

Chapter 7: Identification of NAMAs

Initiating the Identification Process

NAMA Identification

National GHG Inventories

Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up

Sectoral Approaches

Central Coordination Unit

Baseline and GHG Emission Scenarios

Evaluation of Co-Benefits

Congratulations on Completing Chapter 7

Aligning NAMA Proposals to

National Priorities and Strategies

Referneces and Complementary Reading Material:

Source: Lütken et. al., 2013: Guidance for NAMA Design – Building on Country Experiences

http://www.uneprisoe.org/PUBLICATIONS

In many cases, what ends up being proposed as a NAMA can be found in earlier versions of policy proposals and under different labels in government development plans.

National GHG inventories can provide an important input for the identification of NAMAs.

In accordance with Article 4.1 (a) of the UNFCCC all countries shall, Develop, periodically update, publish and make available to the Conference of the Parties, in accordance with Article 12, national anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, using comparable methodologies to be agreed upon by the Conference of the Parties.

Two main approaches to identification:

• Top-down, where one central organization is given the responsibility by the government to identify and prioritize the mitigation options

• Bottom- up, where – line ministries/regional governments, and private actors and civil society, are invited to identify mitigation options. These are then considered and prioritized by a body at the policy level in the context of national development and mitigation priorities

ETC/ACM, 2012: Analysis of co-benefits of air pollution, noise and

climate change policies on a local scale

The baseline scenario is made to identify how several parameters, including GHG emissions, would develop in the absence of the NAMA.

The baseline scenario specifies:

• NAMA boundaries
• Scope
• Sector
• Current financial flows
• Technology base
• Value chain

NAMAs should result in and be driven by socio-economic and environmental benefits other than merely GHG reduction, depending on the initiative:

Direct co-benefits:

• Energy access
• Water conservation
• Improved traffic flows
• More efficient farming

Other benefits may be indirect

• Positive health impacts
• Reduced pollution
• Job creation etc.

Many of these effects may be labelled as sustainable development benefits.

http://acm.eionet.europa.eu/docs/ETCACM_TP_2012_3_cobenefits-AP-CC-noise_local-scale.pdf

Most NAMAs will probably result from government-led campaigns, initiatives or policies at the highest levels.

A central coordinating unit or mechanism could be established to:

• Give guidance on identifying and developing mitigation options
• Supporting the prioritization across sectors/regions
• Preparing a national list of priority actions

Also, NAMAs need to be endorsed as nationally appropriate by the national NAMA approver to be registered in the UNFCCC NAMA Registry.

The NAMA approver could be a Central Coordinating Unit or another entity.

These plans might not be synchronized or following a national programme or a Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS) approach.

Ecofys, TÜV-SÜD, FIELS, 2009: Guidance on Sustainability Assessment

The IPCC categorizes GHG emissions along seven emitting sectors:

1) Energy supply

2) Residential and commercial buildings

3) Transport and its infrastructure

4) Forestry

5) Waste management

6) Agriculture

7) Industry

The identification and prioritization process for NAMAs should be country-owned and country-driven.

This implies government coordination, possibly through a NAMA coordination office to liaise and support NAMA related efforts among:

• Ministries and governmental agencies

• Regional/local institutions

• Research and training organisations

www.cdmgoldstandard.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Annex_I.pdf‎

Source: UNEP Risoe Centre 2013

Potential Inputs Provided

by GHG Inventories

Important to identify the political and economic context in which the NAMAs will be developed.

Equally important is the national GHG emission trends; the past, current, and expected future GHG emissions, their growth and speed in different sectors, and the drivers of GHG emissions.

Main drivers of GHG emissions identified in literature are:

• Economic growth
• Population growth
• Structural change
• Energy consumption

Once the analysis of existing or derived information is complete, it is possible to assess future trends of emissions, and a baseline of expected emissions can be constructed.

Alternative actions to deviate from the baseline can be considered by defining action constraints and identifying selection criteria like:

• Cost minimisation
• Sustainable development contribution
• Predefined political commitment, etc.

UN, 2007: Indicators of Sustainable Development: Guidelines and Methodologies

The scope of the possible NAMAs is determined by the origin of the identification process, and usually takes place within the scope of a sector or ministry, agency, authority or other public administrative entity within a given economic sector, and its immediate counterparts.

The NAMA options listed will therefore typically be a mixture of sub-sector specific options and different modalities for implementing a given initiative.

Even though NAMAs usually stem from a confined sector or Ministry.

It is advisable to perform a cross-sectoral analysis of the potential mitigation actions to assess the cost-effectiveness later in the selection process.

http://www.un.org/esa/sustdev/natlinfo/indicators/guidelines.pdf

Example:

To quantify the impact of the NAMA, the baseline must also define the parameters for which an impact assessment is desired. These can be economic parameters, such as wealth generated; development parameters such as employment and improved health, among others; or environmental parameters, such as GHG emission reductions and improved water or air quality.

Contributor:

Documents to Support NAMA Identification and Synchronization

• Service institutions (private and public entities)

• Non-governmental organisations

• Financial institutions

If, for instance, one objective is to meet growing energy demand, an energy efficiency agenda may be a viable option instead of investing in a new coal fired power station.

In this case, a programme of support for energy efficiency in industry and households could contribute to save the equivalent of the expected increase in demand.

Top-down

National GHG inventories cover 7 GHG gases:

Three major GHG

• CO - Carbon dioxide
• CH – Methane, and
• N O - Nitrous oxide

There are other gases that are covered by the UNFCCC,

which can thus be targeted by NAMAs. These are:

• SO – Sulphur dioxide, and three other indirect GHGs
• CO - carbon monoxide,
• NO - oxides of nitrogen, and
• NMVOCs - non-methane volatile organic compounds

Daniel Puig

The lack of synchronization arises when different sectors follow different planning processes that do not match in:

• Timing
• Design considerations
• Implementation mechanisms
• Accountability and reporting procedures

Defining Baseline Emissions

Energy Models for Project Emission Trajectory

The GHG inventory can be used for several purposes, among these:

• As an integrated part of the National communications and Biennial Update Reports to the UNFCC
• To define desired emission reduction outcomes
• Input to the National Change Response Policy

Transition to Low Carbon Society

• Measuring and Reporting System and basis for Verification
• Input in local and provincial mitigation planning
• Input to a carbon tax regime

GHG Inventories can be used as a starting point to develop mitigation priorities and to design policies to effectively contribute to GHG emission reductions.

They are also a central input to NAMA identification and for a country's development priorities in general.

CDM Methods and Methodologies for GHG Emission Estimation

Data Challenges in Baseline Emissions Projections

Models can be used to outline GHG emission trajectories in the energy sector.

Makes it possible to estimate the GHG emissions scenario at country and possibly also sectoral level.

The following documents could provide useful information

about national strategies and mitigation potential:

• The current national budget
• National communications (national GHG inventories and mitigation assessments)
• National development strategies (e.g. Poverty Reduction Strategies)
• National climate change strategy or policy papers
• Relevant sector specific policies
• Specific laws and regulations that influence the flows of financing in the sector
• National investment policies, etc.
• Other NAMA proposals submitted to the UNFCCC
• Technology Needs Assessments and Technology Action Plans
• Low emissions development strategies
• Other relevant documents for inspiration, including :
• Emissions reductions studies completed by multilateral development agencies
• GEF project database
• NAMA databases

Bottom-up

Designated National Authorities (DNA) for CDM have routinely considered sustainable development benefits for CDM projects and may be consulted in this respect.

When developing the evaluation framework for co-benefits inspiration may be found in the CDM sustainable development tool.

The tool can be found following the link: http://www.research.net/s/SD_tool_vers8

Sustainable development criteria and indicators can also be identified in national development priorities formulated in development plans and sector strategies or national responses to international initiatives like Agenda 21 and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

• MESSAGE: An energy model developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that has been used by over 80 countries for developing their energy plans.

• MARKAL/TIMES: I s another model developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) made to represent the evolution over a period of usually 40 to 50 years of a specific energy system at the national, regional, state or province, or community level. http://www.iea-etsap.org/web/Markal.asp

Test Your Knowledge:

Methodologies approved for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) mostly focus on estimating baseline emissions and emissions reductions from project activities.

May not be directly applicable and appropriate for establishing the BAU scenario for a wide range of activities proposed under a NAMA.

CDM methodologies may be adjusted to account for the implementation of multiple measure policies.

Inspiration may be sought in the way in which multiple methodologies are combined for instance in CDM Programme of Activities (PoA).

• Baseline emissions are the expected trajectory of emissions (not a constant value) for a period of time, typically to 2020 or 2030 or even longer if it is so considered by the country.

NAMAs should be aligned to national policies and could benefit from being aligned with any set timeframe for a national goal that might exist. For example, if there is a national goal of 20% emissions reduction from BAU levels by 2025, the baseline projection for the NAMA could use that same period.

• Baseline emissions within the defined boundaries of a NAMA are country-specific, resulting from economic activity, and therefore cannot be generalised, but for GHG emissions reduction estimates, IPCC standard values may be applied in calculations.

Generally, GHG Accounting Protocols and Standards can provide guidance on the tracking of progress on specific NAMA objectives. GHG accounting protocols and standards for determining baseline emissions and emissions reduction will be presented later in the MRV section of the course.

• Projections of baseline emissions are subject to various factors, such as changing national and sectorial priorities and trends; general economic development leading to economic advancement, access to finance and local capacity.

Baselines are also subject to methodological choices, from the projections used for output in the sectors, and the choice of policies considered ‘baseline policies’, to the input, or lack thereof from other stakeholders. Also, potential indirect increases or decreases in GHG emissions as a consequence of implemented actions must be considered, even if they are beyond the boundary of the NAMA.

The central coordinating unit or mechanism may also be charged with other important tasks further down in the NAMA development and implementation process.

• The availability of data may either be non-existing, incomplete or outdated

Rectifying the shortcomings may require technical capacity and/or budget for national or international technical assistance.

Building the data set should be seen in conjunction with the future demand for data acquisition and maintenance, ensuring that the data established once for the baseline scenario can also be acquired regularly as part of the MRV system.

Data should be aligned with the national GHG inventory, using the inventory as data source if relevant, alternatively adding more detail to the inventory through the upgrading of data acquisition for the NAMA.

In the absence of reference to existing data, standards or methodologies, baseline emissions may be estimated on the basis of simple assumptions, as long as they are transparently documented and published.

At a smaller scale, companies may run campaigns among their employees for them to help identify areas, where energy is wasted; or external energy audits may be undertaken with the same purpose.

• LEAP: Developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), is also widely used to plan energy systems to meet sustainable development goals. http://www.sei-international.org/leap-the-long-range-energy-alternatives-planning-system

http://www.classmarker.com/online-test/start/?quiz=njf536cccd0bc954

Tool for Selecting CDM Methodolgies and Technologies:

http://www.cdm-meth.org/

Existing forums such as National Environmental Committees could provide a good basis to initiate a process.

Important to have policy makers and technical experts in the identification process to ensure that the NAMAs identified have both political and a technical foundation.

The relevant information to be extracted from the above mentioned documents is:

• Mitigation actions that fit into the national context
• Existing or planned relevant domestic policies and their prime objectives
• Emission baseline establishment and future emissions and mitigation scenarios
• Potential barriers preventing the (full) implementation of the relevant domestic policies
• Central stakeholders that may hinder or promote development of the initiative

The overall objective – energy access – has not changed, but the way to identify options has.