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M. King Hubbert came up with the theory of peak oil- which is a period of time when oil production reaches its climax. When this point is reached, oil production will steadily decline and eventually cease to exist. Oil drilling, the extraction of oil from the earth, began in the 1860’s in the U.S. Oil is used for transportation, fertilizers, plastics, heating, machinery, and military defense- among many other things.
The main thing to realize is that we will not run out of oil overnight- it will come gradually. In the beginning, when people start realizing the situation, there may be panic. Millions of jobs in the oil industry and others will be lost. Millions of people using air travel will need to find other ways to get to places. Then there may be food shortages as groceries cannot make it to the stores. Then electricity shortages will occur more and more often until whole metropolitan areas enter blackouts because coal cannot be transported to generate power. Eventually alternatives such as soy beans, lithium-ion batteries, and solar energy with be obtained, but how quick we can get there is the question.
Since the cost of transporting crops and other foods across the nation or between countries might become too expensive, there may be growing focus on local farms and people might start growing their own food.
Oil is used in fertilizers, so crops would suffer. Large animals like cows may also not be able to be fed because they require huge amounts of food daily.
Because of this, fast food may become nearly impossible, since it requires large amounts of a variety of ingredients to be transported, fast.
Our fields, which would normally be growing crops for us, might be used for growing corn for ethanol instead. Sugar cane and soy beans are also major crops used as alternative fuel sources.
Pros
Con
Electricity: Coal is converted to energy in power plants, and trains need oil to transport that coal. A lack in oil causes difficulties in transportation which doesn't allow the coal to reach the power plants, therefore preventing electricity from being generated. Also, oil is needed to power the machines that get the coal in the first place, let alone transport it.
Major agricultural industries would go out of business: oil is used to run tractors and devices that spray herbicides and pesticides, to power vehicles that provide just-in-time shipment to markets, and to process food containers.
Environment: The air and water pollution caused by oil will be diminished. Instead of oil, using solar power would provide cleaner and renewable energy
Growth in alternative transport: Without oil, citizens are forced to find different ways to transport materials and themselves. This can lead to increases in old fashioned transport, such as walking, cycling, and public transport. Not only would this help the environment (decrease in CO2 emissions), the population would have increasingly healthy lifestyles, as this type of transportation requires movement.
Without oil, old fashioned ways of transportation would be adopted, such as cycling and public transport. The decrease in CO2 emissions would create a greener environment with less pollution. Also, adjustments in transportation may result in trade becoming more difficult. International trade routes would vary, the 3000 mile Caesar salad would become a more expensive commodity, products from overseas such as electronics, or even varieties of food would become harder to reach. People in the work force would increasingly apply for jobs in the quaternary sector- research and development- in order to find alternatives. Without oil, electricity would become harder to generate. Without oil, cities would change. Citizens out in the suburbs would have to move closer into the city because they wouldn’t be able to pay for the transportation costs. A world without oil means a world without plastic that we know and love to use in many of our products such as electronics, bags, bottles, furniture, tools, and more would be impossible to produce without petroleum.
Firstly, there will be an increase in oil prices and
since oil prices will be too high, public transportation will grow along with other forms of transportation such as cycling and walking.
A world without oil wouldn’t cause just one change in a single aspect of the world, and we’ve discovered that in this experience of learning about the possibilities for the future. A lack of oil would mean dramatic changes in transportation- planes, trucks, trains, and cars would all be rendered useless without gasoline or jet fuel, unless we are able to find alternative fuel sources.
Oil is used for powering our cars, trucks, motorcycles, trains, planes, and ships, without them, how do we transport anything?
For example, trains are used to transport coal to power plants to generate power for electricity. Without them, we wouldn't have electricity.
Virtually all goods, such as food and clothing, require transportation of some sort. In a world without oil scenario, the products that are inexpensive and easy to come by may become costly and hard to access.
“What you will save on labor costs you will more than lose on transport costs.”
People who live in the suburbs would have to move closer to the center of the city or closer to their jobs because transportation costs would be too high.
Land use patterns would also change because of this, with some areas having very high populations while others have very low populations
Unemployment- when cars are no longer being used, the people who work in the oil industry, factories that manufacture and assemble car parts, and workers who retrieve the raw materials for the parts may all lose their jobs is cars,planes, and ships are not longer used as much.
People who live in rural areas may not be able to access resources anymore, so they would have to move to urban areas.
There will be an increase in the quaternary sector-research and development- because many people will be working on trying to find efficient alternative fuel and energy sources such as solar energy and lithium-ion batteries.
This would result in new public infrastructure, whether it be a new system of public transportation or housing or accessibility of markets.
We may also have to modify the energy and transportation infrastructure in our cities, like replacing gas stations with charging stations.
Manufacturing wise, there may come a shift towards making electric cars, and developing lithium-ion batteries, or producing more solar panels.
Some actually predict an increase in jobs due to economies becoming more local and providing small local businesses.
Since industrialized economies run on oil, a lack of oil can cause a decline in economic growth or possibly, a destabilization of the global economy.
To have a globalized economy, you need cheap oil prices and low transportation costs, if oil becomes scarce or too expensive, deglobalization will start to occur.
Oil consumption is a major factor in GDP. If oil production goes down, so does this global GDP. This can lead to a smaller global economy.
Works Cited
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Apr. 2005. Web. 26 May 2015. <http://www.resilience.org/stories/2005-04-01/why-our-food-so-dependent-oil>.
Cooke, Ronald R. PDF. N.p.: NY Times, n.d.
Fontinelle, Eric. "Top 5 Oil-Producing Countries In 2011." Investopedia. N.p., 16 Mar. 2011. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0311/top-5-oil-producing-countries-in-2011.aspx>.
Hanely, John. "Peak Oil: What To Do When The Wells Run Dry." Investopedia. N.p., 21 Oct. 2007. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/peak-oil.asp>.
Hornby, Scott. "Peak Oil: Problems And Possibilities." Investopedia. N.p., 24 Oct. 2007. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/peak-oil-reality.asp>.
Orlov, Dmitry. "Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation." The Permaculture Research Institute. N.p., 10 Dec. 2010. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://permaculturenews.org/2010/12/10/definancialisation-deglobalisation-relocalisation/>.
Pettinger, Tejvan R. "World Without Oil Scenario." Economics Help. Economics Help, 21 Apr. 2012. Web. 26 May 2015. <http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/5128/economics/world-without-oil-scenario/>.
Rubin, Jeff. "High Energy Prices Will Fracture The World and End Globalization." US News. U.S.News & World Report, 29 May 2009. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2009/05/29/high-oil-prices-will-fracture-the-world-and-end-globalization>.
Smith, Noah. "Get Ready For Life Without Oil." BloombergView.com. Bloomberg, 16 Jan. 2015. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-16/get-ready-for-life-without-oil>.
"A World without Oil." Docsity.com. N.p., 22 May 2014. Web. 27 May 2015. <http://en.docsity.com/news/energy/world-oil>.
Smaller economies would form and some communities may create their own currencies in the case of a world without oil.
Issues can also occur with countries claiming oil in their EEZ's.