Outcome bias

Outcome bias

What it looks like

How Not be bias?

If one wishes to not fall victim to Outcome bias, one should always consider the all possibilities or even question the decision as a whole. Major factors such as risk or anything involving chance should be taken in consideration immensely. Ask yourself questions such as "What if..." or "How should..." when you weigh your options.

Place yourself in a scenario where you are planning a heist to rob a multi- trillion bank. After months of careful planning, you bring your crew to rob it with you. You are positive that your plan is clean and successful. You meet up with your buds and spring into action, hoping you'll come out as a very wealthy man. Now fast forward and a member of the crew triggers a silent alarm as the money was being bagged. The SWAT team shows up and everyone gets cuffed. Was robbing the bank a bad decision in the end? What about if you got away with money?

What is it?

Outcome bias is a bias that focuses solely on the results. It is the cognitive habit of judging an already made decision based on the quality of the outcome with no regards to any factors that led up to the decision itself. This includes any decision involving RISK and or CHANCE. Basically, it's just a way of saying it's a bad or good decision because things didn't or did go accordingly to YOU.

Personal Experience

Examples of Outcome Bias

Bad decision? OR Good decision?

I gambled on a Counter Strike website using skins or cosmetics that alters the appearance of guns. I deposited 120$ and won up to 650$. I felt it was a good decision to gamble during the train that got me up to 650$. However.... towards the end, where I lost all my money is where I started to feel it was a terrible idea....

• A child is sick and there's no cure to be found, however a doctor has invented a drug that has a 50% chance to cure the child's disease or kill him. If the drug works, the doctor will be praised. Should the child died as a result of the drug, the doctor will be blamed for "killing" the child.

• You and a friend decides to invest into the stock market, each starting with 500$. At the end of the month, your friend's investment doubles while you lost all of your money. To your friend, investing was a good decision because he made money. To you, however, was a bad decision because you lost money.

• You and your friend decides to play poker Friday night for money. A best of 3 game for 50$. You won a round but your friend caught up and snatched the win away from you. Now he boasts he is the best poker player because he won 50$.

BY: Johnny Wang