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Hurricanes and Gas Prices SFAR
Gas Prices Likely To Increase If Hurricanes Hit The Gulf Coast Within The Next 24 Months
Executive Summary
It is likely that gas prices will increase if a hurricane hits the Gulf Coast within the next 24 months.
Key Findings
Key Findings
- Oil and gas refineries are highly likely to shut down due to a hurricane strike in the Gulf Coast.
- Oil and gas operators from off shore sites on the Gulf Coast evacuated due to safety.
- Example: Exxon Mobil5
The US is responsible for producing 17 MILLION barre...
The US is responsible for producing 17 MILLION barrels of crude oil per day1
Key Findings
Key Findings
- There are exactly 58 oil refineries are located on the Gulf Coast2
- In the event of a hurricane, oil refineries are highly likely to shut down2
- Less gas means higher gas prices
So what are the effects of gas inflation?
Correlations
Correlations
- If oil refineries slow down oil production, the prices of gas will highly likely increase due to cost and demand trends
- Vehicles NEED gas!
- If there is a gas shortage the prices will likely go up to make sure profit rates for gas companies stay stable
What are the affects of gas inflation continued...
It is likely that a hurricane would increase the Consumer Pri...
It is likely that a hurricane would increase the Consumer Price Index in the US
- An increase in CPI will raise the Social Security cost of living adjustments (COLA)3
- Example: in 2005, Hurricanes Katrina and Rita's aftermath on Texas and Louisiana's coastline
- RAISED CPI-W index on gas to 17.4 percent in ONE MONTH4
Occurrences
Hurricane destruction, gas prices, and CPI
Occurrences
Occurrences
- During the hurricane spell in September 2017, the CPI rose 0.5 percent for the second time in eight months.7
- January 2009 COLA was registered at 5.8 percent due to INCREASED gas prices
- Highest cost of living adjustment recorded in over 20 YEARS4
- In the event of a hurricane, it is likely that due to an increase of gas prices, the Consumer Price Index is also likely to rise.
Analytic Confidence
- Analytic confidence: High
- Source reliability: High
- The research time was adequate
- The analyst is not an expert on the subject matter
Thank You
For questions ...
Thank You
For questions or comments, please contact the author: Gregory Durr II
Email:
References
1http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/08/28/good-question-hurricane-harvey-gas-prices/ (High)
2https://market.biz/news/climate-change-and-the-economy/ (High)
3http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/inflation-rises-to-22-percent-in-september-as-hurricanes-push-up-gas-prices/article/2637399 (High)
4https://www.fedsmith.com/2017/08/25/hurricane-harvey-gas-prices-cola/ (High)
5https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/25/hurricane-harvey-likely-to-boost-gas-prices-for-us-drivers.html (High)
6https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/25/hurricane-harvey-likely-to-boost-gas-prices-for-us-drivers.html (High)
7http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-inflation-surges-again-after-hurricane-boosts-gas-prices-cpi-shows-2017-10-13 (High)