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How COVID-19 affected on Great Britain's tourism
Shegenov Eldar
Sungatolla Sultangali
02.05.2020
Introduction
SUMMARY
Tourism is considered one of the hardest hits by the COVID-19 outbreak. The sector is experiencing a rapid and sharp drop in demand and a surge in job losses at global level, putting many SMEs at risk. Despite tourism’s proven resilience in responses to other crisis, the depth and breadth of the current pandemic will likely have a longer lasting effect on international tourism compared to other industries, more likely to recover once major restrictions will be lifted. This is also due to the potential long-term changes in behaviors with people likely to become more cautious about travelling overseas in the future.
Our initial forecast for 2020, released in December 2019, was for inbound visits to the UK to grow by 2.9% to 39.7m and for spending by inbound visitors to grow by 6.6% to £26.6bn, setting new records in each case. Since March, COVID-19 has triggered a near-total shutdown in international tourism to/from the UK. Forecasting at this time is difficult, given the fast-moving situation and the unique circumstances. Our central scenario for inbound tourism to the UK in 2020, as of mid-April, is for a decline of 54% in visits to 17.8m and 55% in spend to £11.6bn. This would represent a loss vs the pre-COVID forecast of 21.9m visits and £15.1bn spend.