PNWC Sep 1 Lecture

No Change

No

• Pakistan has a historically consistent position on Kashmir. There is no change
• Says: the UN should be approached to intervene on humanitarian grounds to push India to free locked up Kashmiri people and leaders.

Going to the UN & waiting for results is a slow process. Results will not be swift. Requires patience.

Nothing has changed.

We did not believe in 370.

Doesn't matter if it has ceased to exist.

Everything Changed

Yes

• You can talk all that you want about the UN Resolutions on Kashmir but it wouldn't matter

There is simply no leverage that Pakistan has with India. The UN does not matter.

• IF, and IF, India reverses its position on Kashmir, it would do so out of its own compulsions and not cos Pakistan or international community has made it.

There is a new reality in Kashmir post 5-8-19 whether Pakistan acknowledges it or not.

Denial

• There is a new reality in Kashmir post 5-8-19 whether Pakistan acknowledges it or not
• The sooner we acknowledge it, the better able we be to strategize
• Cannot have both: Denial & Strategy
• Inaction will be damaging Pakistan's reputation. It already has.

Inaction cannot be Pakistan's endgame in Kashmir

Denial

Indo-Pak Relations

Indo-Pak

• Future of Dialogue?
• Indian military modernization
• Indo-U.S. Relations and its implications for Pakistan
• Two-front war?

Sino-Indo Relations

• LAC Skirmishes
• Two front War?
• Quad vs China
• Sino-Indo Bilaterational Equation

Sino-Indo

Afghan Peace Process

• U.S.-Taliban Deal &

U.S. -Afghan Agreement

• Pakistan's Role
• Regional Stakeholders
• Peace Process?

Afghan

Peace Process

Abraham Accords

IWT

I

• Today it is Kashmir, death of the Shimla Agreement, tomorrow the casualty will be the Indus Water Treaty.
• Will the abrogation of IWT mean war?Is it that automatic?
• What will be the last straw?
• Will India not learn anything about us from our inaction in Kashmir and adjust its next move accordingly?

Indian NFU

II

• Modi's recent most statement about defeating Pakistan in 10 days
• Statements about gaining jurisdiction on AJ&K
• Are we complacent or confident post-Balakot strikes?
• Visible signs of Indian narrative building on taking Kashmir
• They know it will have to be by force!
• Are we ready?

Engaging Pakistan Militarily

• LoC is on fire since 5-8-19
• False flag scare
• Crisis escalation scare
• Broken economic back and war-fighting
• Keeping Pakistan busy enough to derail its diplomatic game internationally

Other Fronts

Short Term

• Keep up the diplomatic pressure on India.
• Keep the international community engaged to generate pressure on India on the deteriorating Human Rights conditions in Kashmir.
• Don’t let the NRC & CBA bill debate in India overshadow or push Kashmir on the back burner.
• Keep China engaged on Kashmir.
• Need for a comprehensive media and communication strategy

Short Term

Medium to Long Term

• The long haul.
• Wait for diplomacy to work? Do we have the time to wait it out?
• Discussion about the provincial status of Gilgit and Baltistan through constitutional amendment is inevitable. When is the right time for it?
• Pak-India Bilateral Dialogue? If there is mutual push for it, can conditionalities be added?
• Will talking help?
• How long will/can you avoid talking to India?
• Pakistan needs to see if there is a minus-Modi formula that can be explored with other parties and politicians in India. If yes, time to identify and engage them is now.