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Soft Brexit
Sydney Casteel, Eric Goodwin, Walter Williams
12/13/2018
History of The UK and Europe
The United Kingdom has had a long and interesting relationship with the rest of the European continent. Since the end of World War II, the UK and the rest of Europe have been through three stages of relationships.
The UK and Europe
Post WWII
Following the events of World War II
The start of a United Europe
Unite Europe
In 1946, Winston Churchill gave a speech in Zurich noting that he would like to see a United States of Europe in the aftermath of World War II.
Eleven years after his speech, The Treaty of Rome was signed creating the European Economic Community (EEC).
The goal of the EEC was to take away trade barriers within its countries borders.
After EEC
The UK had no interest in giving up their sovereignty to join the EEC, so they created their own "club", the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which failed miserably.
The EFTA included Denmark, Sweden, Portugal, Norway, Switzerland, and Austria.
While countries in the EEC saw economic groeth, the countries in the EFTA saw economic failure.
UK and EEC
The UK joins the rest of Europe
Victory
in 1963, the UK applied to join the EEC, but they were denied by Charles De Gaulle because he questioned their commitment to the EEC.
They were accepted when De Gaulle was no longer in power in 1973, but two years later there were talks of backing out.
In 1984, Margaret Thatcher negotiates a "rebate" due to the unfair economic treatment that the UK was receiving.
The beginning
The UK and the EU
The Maastricht Treaty was signed in 1993 creating the European Union, which the main component was the EEC.
The main goal of the EEC was to integrate the politics and economies of the nations that were a part of it.
After years of tension due to chocolate and "mad cow" disease, in 1997, Tony Blair, the Labour Prime Minister began to work on rebuilding and strenghtening ties with the EU.
In the early 2000's talks of a constitution fell through, and the Lisbon Treaty was signed giving more border power to Brussels, Belgium.
The beginning of Brexit
The UK and Brexit
in 2011, Dave Cameron became the first UK Prime Minister to veto an EU treaty. At the time there was financial unrest in the eurozone.
With the financial unrest came the rise of the UK Independence Party, who had a anti EU stance. They also didn't like that they had to take in migrants due to being a part of the EU. The tensions grew until a referendum was held in 2016 stating the UK wanted to leave the EU.
Once the referendum was passed, Dave Cameron resigned and Theresa May was appointed the new PM.
In 2017, she invoked Article 50 of the Treaty of the EU stating the intent to break away from the EU.
Britain today is A House Divided, and has been ever since the Brexit vote.
Brexit today
Hard
Soft
Soft vs Hard Brexit
Britain gives up membership of EU single market (subsequently, its free trade w/ EU)
Negotiates its own trade deals.
Britain leaves the EU but remains closely aligned.
Possibly stay in the single market (EEA) and customs union.
Compromises on immigration.
Sets own immigration policy.
“The deal we have achieved is the best deal possible, it is the only possible deal.” Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president.
May's Deal in Peril
- Approved by EU
- UK subject to EU rules, but businesses have time to adapt
- Only addresses withdrawal (21 months), not future relationship
- Disliked by both sides
- Jürgen Maier: "Only deal we've got"
May's Current Deal
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbBUPBHG4wo
If a deal can't be reached, May's plan says N. Ireland will (kind of) remain in the single market and temporarily keep the UK in the EU customs union.
Backstop
Plan wins
Plan fails
- Soft Brexit. UK leaves EU and follows EU regulations for 21 months.
- No-deal Brexit
- Vote of no-confidence against May
- Second vote?
- Major renegotiation (may push back Brexit date)
- Another referendum (likely after March 29)
What Next?
May could also call for a general election before the vote (approved by Parliament)
Shifting Public Opinion?
- Citizens Assembly on Brexit: Most Brits want frictionless border with EU (only attainable with soft Brexit)
- Majority would prefer to remain if no deal
- Pew Research: 62% of British adults say membership in the EU good for their economy
Public Opinion
Reasons for a soft Brexit
- Financial stability for EU and UK
- No extra stress for UK citizen in the EU and vice versa
- Collaboration for science, medicine, technology, and defense.
- Protects the rights of workers
- Helps both economies
- Shows a more united Europe
- It keeps the interest of all parties involved
- No time will be spent on making new agreements and treaties.
Why a soft Brexit?
Conclusion
Conclusion
Due to what history has shown and the potential to lose so much in a fallout between the UK, it would be wise for both the UK and EU to push for a Soft Brexit.