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presents:

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NAVIGATING ATMOSPHERIC

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CLIMATE CHANGE

The science & data

Grades: 6-9

Duration: 120 minutes

Standards: NGSS - MS-ESS3-5

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THIS PRESENTATION IS A SUPPLEMENT FOR TWO LESSONS:

This Prezi presentation follows the lesson plans listed below. Use them to guide your class. Feel free to copy and adapt this presentation to suit your needs! The lesson:

  • Provides a simple re-introduction to climate change with simulations
  • Discusses the idea of projections and uncertainty
  • Engages in working with the Keeling Curve
  • Guides the graphing of data to look at seasonal variation of CO2 levels

Interactions within Earth’s Atmospheres by National Geographic

Click below for the teacher’s guide.

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/activity/interactions-earths-atmosphere/

TEACHER NOTES

Graphing Global Temperature Trends

by NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Click below for the teacher’s guide.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/teach/activity/graphing-global-temperature-trends/

Teacher Overview

Overview & refresher

Click here!

https://prezi.com/v/n6uv3evsgmfn/navigating-atmospheric-climate-change/

WATCH THIS VIDEO

Greenhouse gases cause a warming in the Earth’s atmosphere.

Discuss: What are greenhouses gases and how do they warm the atmosphere?

GREENHOUSE GASES

LEARN MORE

LEARN MORE

For further information beyond what you already now, read this short article to learn more about greenhouse gases and prep for our deeper study ahead.

Try paired reading where two students take turns reading 1-2 paragraphs to each other. While one reads, the other listens and formulates a question about the text. The listener poses the question. The reader quickly answers it, and then they swap roles.

Click here for the reading:

https://www.nationalgeographic.org/news/greenhouse-effect/12th-grade/

PROCESS OF LEARNING

There are lots of ways that greenhouse gases contribute to global warming. Science is a process of learning how the world works. Scientists do not know the “right” answers when they start their research.

And there is still uncertainty in climate forecasting. We are all trying to understand this thing we call “climate change.” Data and data trends are super important to understanding the climate change phenomena.

PROCESS OF LEARNING

LET’S TALK ABOUT COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

COMPUTATIONAL MODELS

We all know that there is a difference between weather and climate.

But to refresh our memories:

Weather is the day-to-day conditions we see outside, e.g., sunny, rainy or snowy; hot, warm or cold; dry or humid.

Climate is the long term conditions of a particular region, e.g., the desert of the southwest US or the tropics of the Amazon

LET’S TAKE A LOOK AT DATA IN ACTION WITH A DAILY WEATHER REPORT:

What do you notice?

What is the value in collecting this type of data?

What do the lines mean?

What does the shading mean?

DATA IN ACTION

How do they know where to draw?

How do they know how to project changes over time?

For the most recent computational model see:

https://www.nws.noaa.gov/outlook_tab.php

Past climate models are used to build climate models.

Data collected over time is extremely useful!

DATA COLLECTED

Scientists test their climate models by using them to forecast past climates.

When scientists can accurately forecast past climates, they can be more confident about using their models to predict future climates.

PREDICTIONS

LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT UNCERTAINTY WHEN WE TRY TO MAKE PREDICTIONS.

THIS GRAPH SHOWS SEVERAL DIFFERENT MODELS OF FORECAST TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

What do you notice?

FORECAST

Why is there less variation

(spread) between the models from past dates and more variation with dates in the future?

http://resources.has.concord.org/resources/climate/Screen-shot-2012-10-05-at-3.25.12-PM.png

TERMS

Past or present

More data = less variance

Future

Less data = more variance

VS.

In this example from weather tracking, the cone shows the scientific uncertainty of a storm’s track. Similarly, climate models show the scientific uncertainty of how much Earth's temperature will change in the future. We know the general direction, just not precisely. The white line illustrates the uncertainty and the possible area that will affected by the hurricane.

EXAMPLE

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutcone.shtml

CONFIDENCE

When are scientists most confident in their predictions?

When there’s a lot of DATA!

KEEP IN MIND

KEEP IN MIND:

You will be asked about the certainty of your predictions later.

So remember: more data

means sharper predictions!

NOW LET’S TALK ABOUT SYSTEMS

The climate on Earth is complex because many different systems are at work influencing it.

SYSTEMS

EXAMPLE OF CAUSE

& EFFECT IN A SYSTEM

The island of rabbits & foxes

When there are a lot of rabbits, what will happen to the fox population?

What happens to the fox population when they have eaten most of the rabbits?

What happens to the amount of grass when the fox population is high?

CAUSE & EFFECT

If there is a drought and the grass doesn’t grow well, what will happen to the populations of rabbits and foxes?

What will happen to the populations of foxes, rabbits, and grass after dogs are introduced?

THINK, PAIR, SHARE

Why is thinking about systems important when trying to understand climate change?

THINK, PAIR, SHARE

Take two minutes and write your thinking on an index card.

Share your thinking

with a partner.

Share your collective

thinking with the class.

INTERACTIONS WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE

INTERACTIONS

In this activity:

Break into small groups or go it alone and work through the series of simulations.

Discuss and respond as a group to the questions as you go.

Click here to go to the simulations:

https://authoring.concord.org/sequences/388/activities/7666/0e67381a-5b63-4abf-bb6e-5797023b3449

From The Concord Consortium (http://concord.org)

LET'S DISCUSS

Now that you've gone through the interactions, let’s discuss them as a class.

Why interact with models and simulations like this? What do they help us understand?

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WHAT DO THESE TWO MODELS ILLUSTRATE?

MODELS

Compare and contrast the two models.

How are they similar and different? Similarities?

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http://lab.concord.org/embeddable.html#interactives/global-climate/global-climate-2.json

http://lab.concord.org/embeddable.html#interactives/sam/light-matter/HAS_sunlight_on_ground.json

From The Concord Consortium (http://concord.org)

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What are the limitations of the models in this activity?

QUESTIONS

QUESTIONS

Using the models, what is the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide and temperature?

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What two things can happen to solar radiation as it enters Earth's atmosphere?

Which type of solar radiation is absorbed by greenhouse gases?

INVESTIGATION

INVESTIGATION

You will be analyzing average temperatures measured on Earth for the past 136 years, but each group will only be looking at a portion of that data.

What you need:

Click here for the Data Set:

Google Sheets

(for better sharing) or Excel

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/pdfs/global_monthly_temp_anomalies_1880-2016.txt

More up-to-date data can be found here:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/1/12/1880-2016

LET’S DIG INTO DATA TO SEE WHAT CO2 LOOKS LIKE OVER TIME

CO2

Before we begin:

What are some questions we want to ask of the data?

What are trying to prove of disprove?

What are we curious about?

Teacher’s note: The activity comes from NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and California Institute of Technology. See here for the accompanying lesson plan.

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/edu/teach/activity/graphing-global-temperature-trends/

DIRECTIONS

Get assigned a data range

for your group.

Find your subset of the data.

DIRECTIONS

How do we read the data?

DIRECTIONS 02

DIRECTIONS 02

Open Google Sheets or Excel.

Add a column called 'Actual Temp'.

Create a formula to find the actual temperature.

(= 13.9+Value Cell)

GRAPH THE DATA

GRAPH

Here’s how:

Google Sheets

Highlight all of the data in both columns that you want to graph.

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2

Click the Insert menu and select Chart.

In the Chart Editor window, click the Chart types tab. If not already selected, click Use row 4 as headers and Use column A as labels.

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Then select Line chart and click the Insert button.

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Data

Microsoft Excel

Click to select a blank cell.

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From the Insert menu, click Chart and select Line.

(Alternatively, select Line chart from within the Insert ribbon).

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In the blank chart area that appears, right click and select Choose Data.

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Click in the Chart data range box and select all of the temperature data in Column C, from Cell C5 to Cell C1648.

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Click in the Horizontal (Category) axis labels box and select all of the year data in Column A, from Cell A5 to Cell A1648, and click OK.

Note: Selecting data and creating a line chart by default will not display the data correctly. If students want to select data and make a chart, they should select the data and choose scatter plot. Data will be displayed correctly and can then be turned into a line chart.

IN EXCEL OR GOOGLE SHEETS, ADD A TREND LINE

Here’s how in Google Sheets and Excel.

TRENDLINE

EFFORT

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OUR COLLECTIVE EFFORT

What we created is called the Keeling Curve!

What do you notice? How do you make sense of it?

What do we predict will happen over time given this data?

What do you notice about the trends of others?

Is the overall trend of the data showing global temperature rising, falling, or staying the same?

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Here is another graphed data set from NOAA. It should look a little like ours!

What accounts for

the zigzag line?

NOAA

Environmental changes and seasonal fluctuation of CO2.

WATCH THIS VIDEO

VIDEO

With the sound off, let’s make some observations without narration.

What do you notice?

WATCH THIS VIDEO

Now watch the video with the narration.

This video of greenhouse gasses demonstrates the zigzag nature of your graphing.

VIDEO

QUESTIONS

EXIT TICKET QUESTIONS FOR UNDERSTANDING

On an index card, answer:

Describe the Keeling Curve. What is it? What does it illustrate?

What are the implications of what the Keeling Curve demonstrates?

Lastly, with this new information, what can you do to curb CO2 emissions?

ASSIGNMENT

Throughout this lesson, you've been learning about atmospheric climate change. But we have not looked closely at its effects on the world or solutions that could potentially rectify the situation.

Directions

  • Choose to either investigate atmospheric climate change's effects on some aspect of the world or potential solutions to the problem.

  • Research the issue, finding at least five sources.

  • Create a Prezi presentation or video to share your findings. Below are some tutorials for how to make both. It's fast, fun, and easy. Visit https://prezi.com/learn/ for a full list of tutorials.

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ASSIGNMENT

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