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A slam dunk: the math of March madness
7,556
Predicting a Slam Dunk:
THE MATH IN
MARCH MADNESS
Grades 6-9
Keywords: math, probability, statistics, brackets, basketball, sports
Teacher Note
We invite you to copy and adapt this Prezi presentation for use in your classroom.
Teacher
100 minutes
Duration:
Standards:
CCSS: 6.RP.3, 7.RP.3
Source Content
Full guides with commentary can be found below:
Note
Goals
New York Times
https://learning.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/19/march-madness-using-tournament-brackets-to-debate-academic-questions/?_r=0
Yummy Math
https://www.yummymath.com/2019/does-seeding-really-matter-2/
Nuskool
http://www.nuskool.com/learn/lesson/march-mathness-teach-probability-in-math-to-create-the-perfect-tournament-bracket/
Students will understand that a probability is the mathematical likelihood an event will occur.
How March Madness Works
How
Rankings
It Works
Each region has a number one team, one for each region. The tournament is set up into the four different regional tournaments (West, Midwest, East, and South). The 16th seeds (teams) are generally the worst teams in the tournament. They are normally ranked 61 – 64.
Each March, the Men’s National College Basketball Tournament is played. It is referred to as “March Madness.” There is a field of 64 teams that are broken into four regional tournaments with teams seeded (or ranked) 1 through 16.
How Do They Determine Who Plays Whom?
Take a look at this playing schedule from 2019.
This is former President Obama’s projections for who would win.
How They
Given what you know, what do you notice? What are your questions?
Let’s discuss.
Source
https://www.axios.com/barack-obama-2019-ncaa-tournament-bracket-picks-04dd9c81-c3b7-470f-b24c-bea2a4e1c018.html
Determine
Questions
Questions for Understanding
In each region during the first round of games, the top seed, the #1 seed, plays the lowest seed, the #16 seed. The #2 seed plays the #15 seed, the #3 seed plays the #14 seed and so on.
Team 1
Team 16
Team 15
Team 2
?
Team 3
?
Team 9
Which seed does the #4 seed play?
Which seed does the #9 seed play?
Read this piece from Vox!
How Does It Work in Action?
https://www.vox.com/2015/3/16/8214573/march-madness-2015-ncaa-bracket
How Does
It Work
About the
What about the Seeds ?
Seeds
(aka Rankings)
What do you think?
1
Does their rank really matter?
Most seasons, there is controversy over the rankings. Some fans feel like their team has been ranked too low. Others feel like some teams have been ranked too high. And yet others say that it doesn’t matter and that if a team is going to win the championships they should be able to beat anyone regardless of their seed.
2
3
Make a guess.
Seed
Times this seeded team has won out of 136 games.
Approximate
Winning Percentage
135
1
128
2
Take a Look
115
3
The data you see here is how various teams have fared in recent tournament history. In 136 games a #1 seed has never lost to a #16 seed. But there have been plenty of upsets.
108
4
89
5
85
6
84
7
68
8
68
9
52
10
51
11
47
12
28
13
21
14
8
15
1
16
Your Job
Let’s Take
Find the winning percentage for each team below. Before actually calculating the winning percentages, estimate the winning percentage. Use these estimates to make sure your answers are reasonable.
a Look
Source Material:
https://www.yummymath.com/wp-content/uploads/march-madness-SeedingMatter2019.pdf
Graph It Out
Using a different sheet of paper, create a bar graph for the data in the table. Let the x-axis be the seed number and the y-axis be the number of wins.
y
Number
of Wins
How does the bar graph help you to better see, understand, or communicate the data? What do you notice?
Graph It Out
x
64
1
Seed Number
Rank
What’s a Better Strategy?
All sorts of strategies for picking a winner abound. Some simply pick all the favored teams to win in the first round. Others rely on upsets. According to the data, which do you think makes for a better strategy, picking all the favorites or picking lots of upsets? Or do you recommend some other strategy, other than these extremes?
Strategy
Need more time to think? Continue on for more information!
History of
History of Brackets
Brackets
Are they problematic?
Watch this video!
Why do you think they stopped using the bracket method for chess?
Uncertainty
Over the years, one thing is certain:
For instance:
There’s no proof-positive way to predict exactly how the teams will finish and who will win. There are always surprises.
Third-seeded Baylor lost to No. 14 Georgia State in the first round of the 2015 Tournament.
No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast pulled off a shocking upset over second-seeded Georgetown in 2013.
Because of the randomness of the games, experts calculate the chance of designing a perfect bracket at approximately one in 128 billion.
But how does simple probability work without thinking about how good teams are?
Just
Probability
Geeking Out on the Math
Out on
What are the chances of getting all the picks right on the March Madness brackets?
the Math
Assignment
Throughout this lesson, you've been learning about the NCAA, the brackets, and probability. Now it's your turn to make a prediction about who you think will win and the rankings of the teams.
Assignment
Directions
Create a Prezi presentation or video to share how you think one team or several teams will fare. Use your new knowledge to inform your work. Below are some tutorials for how to make both. It's fast, fun, and easy.
Visit https://prezi.com/learn/ for a full list of tutorials.
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