S4C

Satellite observations

Satellite observations

The UK has world-leading Earth Observation capability spanning from research and early mission development, mission build and exploitation of data, and the creation of end-user applications and services.

Earth Observation is improving our understanding and helping us tackle the challenges facing our planet including climate change

• Datasets from space give us global coverage with local detail.

The Global Climate Observing System:

• Assesses global climate observations of the atmosphere, land and ocean.

• Produces guidance on improvements for 54 Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) to:
• understand and predict the evolution of climate
• enable attribution of climatic events to underlying causes
• underpin climate services

• Half of the ECVs are measured from Space.

In situ observations

In Situ observations

A multitude of climate observation networks cover our entire planet: atmosphere, oceans and land

Models

Data is combined with mathematical models to provide:

• projections of future climate, e.g. UKCP18

• re-analyses of recent weather and environmental conditions, e.g. ECMWF ERA5

Snapshot of the atmosphere, land surface and ocean waves for each hour from 1979 onwards (and eventually from 1950) including uncertainty estimates

ESA Climate Change Initiative

ESA CCI

The European Space Agency’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI) is a research programme dedicated to generating satellite-derived Essential Climate Variables, required by the UNFCCC and IPCC, to support evidence-based decision-making.

The programme capitalises on the world class sciences in the UK studying Essential Climate Variables such as Sea Surface Temperature, Ozone and Land Surface Temperature. The CCI data can be accessed via the CCI data portal developed by Telespzio Vega UK.

The CCI is run from the ESA Earth Observation Climate Office at the European Centre for Space Applications and Telecommunications based in Harwell, UK.

Copernicus

Implemented by ECMWF

Copernicus

Authoritative information about the past, present and future climate, as well as tools to enable climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies by policy makers and businesses

Source of satellite based Essential Climate Variables

Re-analysis

Climate projections

C3S ECVs

High UK involvement in the programme

NCEO

Distributed NERC centre of over 100 scientists from UK universities and research organisations

• Provides national capability in Earth observation science – monitoring the health of our planet through satellite instruments and more
• World-class capability in interpreting these data including extremes and their causes such as rainfall and wildfires

Satellite Data in Environmental Science

SENSE

A Centre for Doctoral Training providing training in Earth Observation and data science techniques, and their application to Earth system challenges.

• Multi-disciplinary training environment with graduates that have the skills and ambition to innovate and become future Earth Observation leaders.

• Open and collaborative partnerships between academia and industry, which stimulates exploitation of satellite data and seeds new research ideas.

• Developing new satellite datasets and techniques

Expert Quality Assurance

Quality-assessed Landsat 5 image of ESA ESRIN, Italy

Expert

quality assurance

Telespazio VEGA offers

• Quality assurance and verification of EO datasets, covering a wide range of EO satellites and instruments.

• Extensive experience established over 10+ years of support to the European Space Agency (ESA).

• Research and development into cutting-edge calibration and validation techniques, including artificial intelligence and metrology

This image is part the Landsat 5 dataset acquired by ESA between 1983 and 2011.

All 150,000 products were recently reprocessed to a higher quality using improved algorithms to align with Landsat 8.

Products were systematically quality assessed by Telespazio VEGA before publication.

Standards in EO

Standards

The UK is a world leader in the evaluation and quality control for Earth observations from space, providing the confidence needed to make climate data actionable.

TRUTHS

New missions

New mission for high absolute accuracy measurements of incoming and outgoing solar radiation:

• Baseline reference measurements of the state of the planet

• Cross calibration enabling an interoperable SI traceable global Earth observing system

• Concept developed by NPL

• Proposed by UK Space Agency to ESA

Climate Indexes

Temperature Precipitation Wind Power

Climate Indexes

Long-term changes in, for example, weather extremes (temperature, precipitation, wind), sea level, greenness expressed as standard deviations from the mean for a reference period

Information can then be used to derive a climate

risk index based on historical correlations with

economic losses, deaths and injuries

Leaf area index from Copernicus Climate Change Service - greenness

Sea level from Copernicus Climate Change Service

Anomalies of 2m air temperature, total precipitation and wind power derived from ECMWF ERA5 re-analysis data

Explore for yourself:

https://github.com/Assimila/ClimateRiskDisclosure

Processed by Assimila Limited

Stress Testing impacts of Climate Change

Stress testing for climate change requires information on:

• positive and negative impacts of climate change: probability, geography and timing

• climate change tipping points to be avoided

Precipitation Data

Precipitation Indicators

EO4SD Rainfall Explorer

Telespazio VEGA UK

Extreme Rainfall

Explorer

Extreme Rainfall Explorer

Analysis of extreme precipitation events for major flood events

• Analysis of long-term daily precipitation from 1979 to NRT at 0.25 degree resolution over global land areas

• Return Period analysis using Generalised Extreme Value distribution

• Highly valued by the climate risk analysts at the World Bank Group

Snapshot of interactive maps generated by the tool for a flood event in United States on 25th February 2019. First map shows the 5 day precipitation amount leading to the start date of the flood. The second map shows the Return Period of the 5 day precipitation.

Climate Impact Indices

Climate Impact Indices

A range of climate impact indices (CII) for finance sector, using state-of-the-art historical climate data and future projections at global scale:

• Backed by the extensive experience in developing CIIs for C3S SIS projects and developing the C3S CDS.

• Capacity to develop customised indicators for the users based on their specific requirements.

• Historical and climate projections under different emission scenarios.

Historical and projected Warm Spell Duration Index for London, under RCP4.5 emission scenario.

This image shows the historical and projected Warm Spell Duration Index for London for 1981 – 2100

Warm Spell Duration Index is defined as seasonal count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when the daily maximum temperature exceeds the 90th percentile in the calendar 5-day window for the base period 1981-2010.

Exeter Heat Hazard Map

Heat Risk Mapping

Heat Hazard Data

4 Earth Intelligence Heat Hazard Mapping service can be used to identify areas that pose the highest level of risk to rising temperatures and extreme heat events. The data is actively being used by ministries, health authorities, cities and business to understand their exposure to heat stress.

• Satellite derived using automated algorithms to identify hotspots throughout the UK, useful to identify evidence of the Urban Heat Island Effect
• Surface heat mapping temperature part of climate and urban resilience data service, helping understand where the most vulnerable populations are to target mitigation strategies
• Data used from summers of 2017-2019 to produce land surface temperature at a 30m resolution. Data available globally at 30m resolution or as postcode data in UK

Image shows the identified heat hazard areas in Exeter. Postcode areas of high risk are located in the dark red and areas representing a much lower risk/vulnerability to increasing heat events are pale red-white.

http://cci.esa.int/lst

Eco:Actuary - flood risk model

Flood Risk in Sierra Leone

Runoff in excess of landscape storage (ratio)

• Eco:Actuary is a global natural catastrophe model and risk mitigation decision support tool developed by King's College London

• Global spatial climate data and asset type and relative value are provided

• Can be used to assess risks to infrastructure, crops, supply chains and ongoing business, anywhere in the world.

• Eco:Actuary can be used as a global portfolio catastrophe model for inland flood risk

• The impact of custom scenarios including IPCC Climate Change scenarios can also be mapped. Risk managers can assess future risks and resilience to Climate Change

Eco:Actuary Flood risk mapping

Eco:Actuary: Long term mean flood risk intensity (>1=flood,<1= no flood). The south-east of Sierra Leone has the greatest risk of pluvial and/or fluvial flood (dark blue).

Assets at Flood Risk

Eco:Actuary combines Flood Risk Maps with floodplain maps and a global asset database, to provide maps of asset value at risk on floodplains.

The impact of climate change scenarios on the asset value at risk can also be assessed

Eco:Actuary Assets at Flood Risk

Sierra Leone - Asset with greatest damage cost per pixel.

With site specific data estimates of monetary loss can be made

Rapid Flood Mapping Service

Rapid Flood Mapping

The provision of flood maps derived from satellite radar data to capture the flood extents pre, during and post an event.

• Environment Agency flood forecast alerts and met service rain forecasts are used to programme satellite radar image acquisitions pre, during and post flood events.
• High risk areas are prioritised and flood extents are extracted from the satellite radar imagery and delivered as maps.
• Elevation data and modelling techniques are used to estimate water depths.

The extent and depth (ft) of flood waters in and around Carlisle, UK on the 7th of December 2015. Flood extents have been mapped using satellite radar imagery and then post processed with elevation data to provide estimated depths.

Co$tingNature Socio-economic Hazard Exposure

Co$tingNature Socio-economic Hazard exposure

Co$ting Nature maps Natural Hazard Potential by combining climate with data on:

coastal inundation [cyclone, tsunami, sea level rise], landslides and soil erosion, floods and droughts

Hazard Exposure combines Natural Hazard Potential with socio-economic data on population, infrastructure, agriculture and GDP indices

New Caledonia - Relative Socio-economic exposure to Hazards

Co$tingNature Physical Risk

Physical Risk Heatmapping Tool

Heatmapping results presented as a multi-hazard risk score overlaid with asset value

Heatmapping Tool

Acclimatise’s heatmapping tool provides banks and investors with an early indication of where the higher risks may lie within their portfolios. The tool identifies key areas of physical risk by screening the portfolio for vulnerability to a full range of climate impacts, and adopts the core concepts for defining physical climate risks in the IPCC Working Group II Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).

The heatmapping tool provides a methodology for banks to assess the risks and opportunities from the physical impacts of climate change on their loan portfolios. This image shows an example of risk scores for a portfolio of hotels and resorts. Source: World Resources Institute. Available from: (www.wri.org)