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Russia's Manoeuvrist Approach
31
Transcript
Attacking will and cohesion
- Ukraine strengths:
- Anticipated international support (disrupted)
- Conventional armed forces (dislocated)
- Ukraine weaknesses
- National identity (destruction)
- Anti government protests (exploited)
- Proximity to Russia, distance from EU/NATO
Discuss how the Manoeuvrist Approach was used to enable Russian effects, outcomes, and successes in the Ukraine
The Argument
- Russian forces/separatists highly effective at seizing and holding the initiative through the use of a wide spectrum of means (capabilities and methods)
- Short term gain - long term cost
Scope
Seizing and holding the initiative
- Manoeuvrist Approach
- The Argument
- Worked examples
Simultaneity
Shaping Understanding
The Manoeuvrist Approach
- Troll farms
- Control over state media
- Use of social media
- Influence over state institutions
- "History will be kind to me for I intend to write it"
- Seizing and holding the initiative
- Shaping understanding
- Attacking will and cohesion
- Psychological impact
Long term cost
- Perceived EU expansion halted
- Expression of revisionist ambitions
Seizing and holding the initiative
- Disinformation campaigns erode over time
- Annexation of Crimea has lead to a refreshed NATO?!
- Economic sanctions
- Russian protests held against Putin's leadership
Pre-emption
Summary
- Seizing and holding the initiative
- Simultaneity
- Shaping understanding
Psychological impact
Seizing and holding the initiative
Tempo & surprise
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