Introducing
Your new presentation assistant.
Refine, enhance, and tailor your content, source relevant images, and edit visuals quicker than ever before.
Trending searches
Higher global
mobility of labour
expected
Provide young people
with the relevant skills
to attract investments
and create jobs
Skills for higher
productivity and
employment
activation measures
(e.g. LLL, technology
skills for aging
workers, address
broader policy solutions
for female employment)
“A mismatch between skills demand and supply has high economic and social costs and results from and contributes to structural unemployment. Early identification of current and future skills needs is part of a forward-looking strategy that reduces skills gaps.”
‘Members should… support and facilitate research on human resources development and training, which could include: … identifying, measuring and forecasting the trends in supply and demand for competencies and qualifications in the labour market…’
Anticipating future skills needs is recognised as the first building block of a robust training and skills strategies and policies
Match supply to current demand
for skills and prepare for future jobs
Progress in educational attainment: increase in average years of schooling among 15-24 year olds (UNESCO)
The global workforce is growing
Increased competition not only for new markets
but also the global competition
for talent
In developing countries: from 3.5 to over 8.5 years (between 1950 and 2010) but girls achieve only 84% of boys attainment
globally: about 40 million of college educated workers
In developed countries: from 7 to 10 years during 1 decade
virtual mobility /
availability of talent
in developing countries: 45 million workers with
secondary education in manufacturing and services
by 2018, the US will be short by 140,000-190,000 people with “deep analytical skills” and 1.5 million managers with expertise in understanding and using their work
Emerging markets approach fast
the developed world
Anticipating future skills needs is recognised as the first building block of a robust training and skills strategies and policies
20-27 % of all physicians in the US, Australia, and Canada are foreign-trained
More than 70 % of citizens with tertiary education in Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago live abroad
IMF, 2016
Current demographic trends bring 40 million people to the labour market each year, meaning that between now and the year 2030 the world economy needs to create over 600 million new jobs.
(ILO Future of Work. DG Report I., 2015)
Workforce in most developing countries is still young
Trade openness can promote economic growth and employment creation
71 million young people are unemployed globally
(ILO, 2016).
The pace of labour force outstrips job creation: unemployment growth 2017 – 3.4 MIO
2018 – 2.7 MIO more unemployed estimated
(ILO, WESO 2017)
The developed world is ageing fast: labour shortages are expected
Workers of future are older: the share of older workers (55+) in the labour force will increase to almost one-fifth by 2030.
More talents compete for (less) jobs
Good-quality education is a foundation
Source: UN, ILO
Recognise and use available skills
(returns on investments
e.g. women: the highest progress in educational attainment but high vulnerability to unemployment
– women remain twice as likely to be unemployed as their male counterparts; gender pay gap in Europe is 20% on average (but 45% for the top category of wage earners)
(ILO, 2017)
More and better skills may lead to economic growth
Include skills in responses to global drivers of change
Jobs
Skills
In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035.
How many jobs are at risk?
The change has always been out there and has always been a challenge
But technology and innovation
drive the change ever faster
Skill bottlenecks are already
But AUTOMATABLE ≠ will be automated
More modest estimates: around 13% of jobs are at high risk of automation in the OECD but with high variation: 6% in Norway to 33% in the Slovak Republic
(cc) image by jantik on Flickr
a major barrier
Source: ILO modelled estimates, 2016
Those that work alongside technologies / robots and benefit from their use:
Creativity
Social skills (interaction, care)
Weaving industrial
machines
- more cotton
workers
ATMs - more
bank tellers and branches
Bar codes
scanners
- more cashiers
E-commerce
– more salespersons
Productivity and competitiveness challenge call for adoption of new business practices:
Non-automatable high-manual dexterity tasks
A mismatch between skills offered and
skills wanted is a major challenge
40 % of employers report recruitment difficulties
globally.
The pool of available labour: 201 million of the unemployed globally (ILO, 2017)
Source: Manpowergroup
not enough skills
too many skills
field of education/types of skills
level of education
people currently at work
changing jobs and future entrants to the labour market
To prepare our students for the jobs to come, and
to provide workers with skills, which could help them to adjust to change, and
Skills for Green Jobs
to ensure there is enough skilled workforce to attract investments, help businesses to be competitive and to move up in the value chain of global markets
Skills for Trade and Economic Diversification (STED)
Technology foresight
Developed in collaboration with the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo
Guidelines for inclusion of skills aspects into employment-related analyses and policy formulation
Pillars of skills needs anticipation
Institutions
Identify relevant data
Predict the exact number of bricklayers, nurses or
engineers demanded on the labour market
“When the winds of change blow, some seek shelter, others build windmills” – an old Chinese Proverb
Tools
These predictions should be left to other professions
Translate data, indicators and trends
into scenarios, strategies
and shared visions
Data
Analyze and discuss which institutional arrangements are conducive to matching demand
and supply of skills