Skills Academy 2017_Skill needs anticipation

Higher global

mobility of labour

expected

Provide young people

with the relevant skills

to attract investments

and create jobs

Skills for higher

productivity and

employment

activation measures

(e.g. LLL, technology

skills for aging

workers, address

broader policy solutions

for female employment)

• measures to retain, recognise and attract talent
• targeted skills training in skill intensive sectors that benefit from trade expansion
• targeted measures to mitigate unemployment and address equity (gender, youth, aging workers)
• policy coherence between trade and skills development
• core work skills (portable!)
• addressing specific skills such as marketing, compliance with standards and regulations, quality control, food safety, products labelling, product design and product development, supply chain management and procurement etc.

Technology and Innovation

http://www.internetlivestats.com/

• STEM skills at all levels
• ICT and coding skills
• Skills that help to adopt, operate and maintain technologies
• Skills that help to create a business case, market and manage technologies adoption

Climate Change and Transition to the Green Economy

Skills Mismatch

ILO Global Policy Framework related to skills

Conclusions on Skills for Improved Productivity, Employment, Growth and Development - adopted at ILC 2008

“A mismatch between skills demand and supply has high economic and social costs and results from and contributes to structural unemployment. Early identification of current and future skills needs is part of a forward-looking strategy that reduces skills gaps.”

HRD Recommendation (no. 195), 2004

G20 Training Strategy, 2010

‘Members should… support and facilitate research on human resources development and training, which could include: … identifying, measuring and forecasting the trends in supply and demand for competencies and qualifications in the labour market…’

Anticipating future skills needs is recognised as the first building block of a robust training and skills strategies and policies

Global Drivers of Change

Demographic Change

Educational Attainment

Globalization of Markets

Dynamic development process

Match supply to current demand

for skills and prepare for future jobs

Progress in educational attainment: increase in average years of schooling among 15-24 year olds (UNESCO)

The global workforce is growing

Increased competition not only for new markets

Demand for skills is changing

faster than training is delivered

but also the global competition

for talent

In developing countries: from 3.5 to over 8.5 years (between 1950 and 2010) but girls achieve only 84% of boys attainment

Shortage predicted

(McKinsey Global Institute 2012, 2015):

globally: about 40 million of college educated workers

In developed countries: from 7 to 10 years during 1 decade

virtual mobility /

availability of talent

in developing countries: 45 million workers with

secondary education in manufacturing and services

Brain drain

by 2018, the US will be short by 140,000-190,000 people with “deep analytical skills” and 1.5 million managers with expertise in understanding and using their work

Emerging markets approach fast

the developed world

Anticipating future skills needs is recognised as the first building block of a robust training and skills strategies and policies

20-27 % of all physicians in the US, Australia, and Canada are foreign-trained

More than 70 % of citizens with tertiary education in Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago live abroad

IMF, 2016

Current demographic trends bring 40 million people to the labour market each year, meaning that between now and the year 2030 the world economy needs to create over 600 million new jobs.

(ILO Future of Work. DG Report I., 2015)

Workforce in most developing countries is still young

Trade openness can promote economic growth and employment creation

71 million young people are unemployed globally

(ILO, 2016).

The pace of labour force outstrips job creation: unemployment growth 2017 – 3.4 MIO

2018 – 2.7 MIO more unemployed estimated

(ILO, WESO 2017)

• The only growth segment of employment in the US and the Eurozone are older workers

• The gig economy workers are older workers.

The developed world is ageing fast: labour shortages are expected

Workers of future are older: the share of older workers (55+) in the labour force will increase to almost one-fifth by 2030.

More talents compete for (less) jobs

• But the impact – growing skill mismatches and economy slowdown as the result of it

Response measures

Good-quality education is a foundation

Source: UN, ILO

Recognise and use available skills

(returns on investments

e.g. women: the highest progress in educational attainment but high vulnerability to unemployment

– women remain twice as likely to be unemployed as their male counterparts; gender pay gap in Europe is 20% on average (but 45% for the top category of wage earners)

(ILO, 2017)

More and better skills may lead to economic growth

Include skills in responses to global drivers of change

Trade and skills:

• key to economic diversification (new products and services, markets, technologies)
• the dispersion of skill levels also affects countries' comparative advantage in trade
• play a role of a buffer helping to reduce adjustment costs
• offset the tendency of trade to drive increases in income inequality
• key for companies’ ability to move up in the value chain

Jobs

Skills

Implications of change:

skills mismatch

Technology, productivity & jobs:

Work Organisation

• A Chinese building company prints 10 full-size houses in one day

In all, there should be nearly 54 million self-driving cars in use globally by 2035.

• Mobility of businesses and jobs
• Virtual access to jobs and talent

We live in an ever-changing world ...

The wrong question:

How many jobs are at risk?

The change has always been out there and has always been a challenge

• Potentially all

Transition to the green economy:

creative destruction of jobs

• Almost half of all jobs in advanced economies are automatable (Frey, Osborne 2013),

But technology and innovation

drive the change ever faster

• Around 56% of jobs are automatable in 5 Asian countries (ILO, 2016)

Skill bottlenecks are already

But AUTOMATABLE ≠ will be automated

More modest estimates: around 13% of jobs are at high risk of automation in the OECD but with high variation: 6% in Norway to 33% in the Slovak Republic

(cc) image by jantik on Flickr

206 B.C.put in use 12Cent

2017

1981

1896

3500 B.C.

a major barrier

The right questions:

What happens with

the rest of jobs?

How do tasks change?

• Very modest estimate: between 25-45% of jobs will be affected by changing tasks (production processes more affected by technologies than services or office jobs) (OECD)

• The use of computers at work implies more sophisticated tasks and decreases the risk of automation

Source: ILO modelled estimates, 2016

Which skills

will secure jobs?

Which jobs

can be created

– direct, indirect and induced?

Those that work alongside technologies / robots and benefit from their use:

Skills implications:

Who will be more

affected by job losses and how to mitigate this?

• One technology job creates 5 jobs indirectly

Creativity

Social skills (interaction, care)

Weaving industrial

machines

- more cotton

workers

ATMs - more

bank tellers and branches

Bar codes

scanners

- more cashiers

E-commerce

– more salespersons

Productivity and competitiveness challenge call for adoption of new business practices:

Non-automatable high-manual dexterity tasks

• But are the jobs the same?

• Women, workers with less education and workers in lower-wage occupations are more likely to be impacted (83% estimated by Frey/Osborne)

• retraining needs

• changing occupations

• emerging occupations

• environmental awareness

• Incremental innovation and improvement – Lean, Kaizen

• Non-routine skills become a critical source of competitive advantage

• Hard and soft innovation (cognitive skills)

• Core work skills (non-cognitive skills)

• High-performance work organisation (learning organisation HRD strategy, participative HRM strategy)

• Workplace learning

• who gets the skills = gets green jobs (women, youth, etc.)

Impact on skills

A mismatch between skills offered and

skills wanted is a major challenge

Consequences of skills mismatch:

• unemployment

40 % of employers report recruitment difficulties

globally.

• low returns of investments into skills development

• impact on production and trade patterns

• low productivity

• lower wages

The pool of available labour: 201 million of the unemployed globally (ILO, 2017)

• wage differentiation and growing inequality

Source: Manpowergroup

• firms recruit at suboptimal skill levels

Olga Strietska-Ilina

Skills and Employability Branch

Employment Policy Department

ILO, Geneva

www.ilo.org/skills

Skills mismatch

• suboptimal technologies

Skill needs anticipation

• sub-optimal work organization

Types of mismatch

Shortage

not enough skills

Surplus

too many skills

• may result in low productivity, low wage, low skill demand equilibrium – a vicious circle

Qualitative

field of education/types of skills

Quantitative

level of education

Current

people currently at work

Potential

changing jobs and future entrants to the labour market

Why does not market solve the skills supply/demand mismatch?

• Imperfect information on jobs and skills availability

• Behavioral factors: Irrational decisions of labour market actors (careers, wages)

Whether you are:

• a worker

• an employer

• an expert

What will be your strategy?

• a policy maker

To prepare our students for the jobs to come, and

• a trainer

ILO resources available

to provide workers with skills, which could help them to adjust to change, and

• a career counsellor

• or just a citizen

Skills for Green Jobs

to ensure there is enough skilled workforce to attract investments, help businesses to be competitive and to move up in the value chain of global markets

Skills for Trade and Economic Diversification (STED)

Technology foresight

Developed in collaboration with the Moscow School of Management Skolkovo

Guidelines for inclusion of skills aspects into employment-related analyses and policy formulation

ILO Approach to Anticipating Skill Needs

Skills needs anticipation broadly refers to activities to assess future skills needs in the labour market in a strategic way, using consistent and systematic methods, and based on social dialogue.

Success factors of skills anticipation systems

Pillars of skills needs anticipation

ILO guides on skills anticipation & matching

• Generic tools for skill needs anticipation and assessment
• Joint work with ETF and Cedefop

Institutions

• Policy coherence

Does

Does not

Identify relevant data

Predict the exact number of bricklayers, nurses or

engineers demanded on the labour market

“When the winds of change blow, some seek shelter, others build windmills” – an old Chinese Proverb

• Social dialogue

Tools

These predictions should be left to other professions

Translate data, indicators and trends

into scenarios, strategies

and shared visions

• Coordination

Data

Analyze and discuss which institutional arrangements are conducive to matching demand

and supply of skills

• Using labour market information.
• Developing skills foresights, scenarios and forecasts.
• Working at sector level.
• The role of employment service providers.
• Developing and running an establishment skills survey.
• Carrying out tracer studies.