Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution

Defining

The Jasmine Revolution

Defining Revolution

Success?

"Trouble arises when revenues no longer meet state expenses, whether because of an enlargement of state goals or a reduction in income."

Gladstone 2001, pg 147

"Educated youth and workers in Tunisia and Egypt have been

carrying out local protests and strikes for years to call attention to high unemployment,

low wages, police harassment, and state corruption." Gladstone 2011, pg 5

Major Actors: Initially, unemployed youth, from countryside moving to the capital. Later, formerly ousted political factions.

Causes: Primarily economic, although also issues of political representation and freedom of

speech. Later, also religious

issues.

"Even after a peaceful revolution, it generally takes half a decade for any type of stable regime to consolidate."

Gladstone 2011, pg 7

Yes?

Successful elections of 2011

Ennahda Stepped Down 2014

Next elections: October 26

Increasing tensions

-Assassinations of

Mohammed Brahmi and

Chokri Belaid

Economics

This slowdown can be explained by political deadlock, the worsening of the security situation, a fragile social context, stagnation in the euro area (the country’s chief client and chief supplier), and a 3.3% decline in agricultural production.

Three Major Types Gladstone (2001)

-Popular Mobilizations

-Urban revolt, peasant revolt, or guerilla war; Outside in approach

-Dramatic Regime Collapse

-Sudden shift in power at the center; Inside out approach

-General Collapse of the Government

-Primarily state socialist regimes,

affected by international

shifts.

Typology

-Liberal

-18th and 19th century

-Movements toward liberal democracy

-Communist

-Early and middle 20th century

-Movement toward communism

-Islamic

-Last quarter of the 20th century...beginning the of 21st century

References

Outcomes: Ben Ali regime ousted, democratic elections, increasing representation. Later, a renewed emphasis on the role of religion in politics.

2010

1987: Ended the one party system, allowing for opposition groups.

Enacted a law to prevent parties based on religion.

1989: Islamic Tendencies Movement (MTI) agreed to run as a secular party, became Ennahda Party.

Ennahda Party received 15% of the vote.

-Type: Popular Mobilization

-Typology: Liberal

-2014 Constitution

Wikileaks exposed the Ben Ali family corruption.

Street vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sets himself on fire in protest

Protests spread from city to city over economy and unemployment

Protestors reject a proposed $10 million job plan due to mishandling of IMF

investment

Ben Ali denounced Ennahda as a religious organization, and the leaders of the party fled Tunisia.

1992: Anti-Islamist Campaign. 279 Islamists tried and sentenced to 15 years to life.

1995: 2000 Islamists jailed, according to Amnesty International

1999: Enacted stringent laws to limit competition for the presidency, Ben Ali received 99.4% of the vote

2004: Amended constitution to remove term and age limits on presidency

From 1987 to 2009:

Ben Ali was re-elected four times with a majority of nearly 90% each time.

Ben Ali repeatedly amended laws to maintain his power and limit competition

Ennahda Party leader Rachid Ghannouchi returns.

Elections were pushed back from July to October.

New laws require proportional representation.

October 2011: Elections were held.

-Ennahda Party won the majority of seats in the Constituent Assembly

-Ennahda put together a 30 party coalition government

-Interim President Moncef Marzouki remains

in power today.

2008

Background

Global Financial Crisis

Demand for Tunisian goods drops suddenly.

Tunisia accepts an offer from the IMF to bolster the economy, but...

Funds fail to help:

Recent College Graduates (20% unemployed)

Interior Cities (22% unemployed)

Ben Ali reelected for the fifth term

November 1987:

Prime Minister

Zine el Abidine Ben Ali lead a bloodless coup,

becoming president of

Tunsia.

2011

Ben Ali struggles to hold onto power:

-Says he will not run for reelection in 2014

-Dismisses cabinet

-Offers elections in 6 months

No effect on protests.

Ben Ali flees Tunisia, denied entrance to France, settles in Saudi Arabia.

Police disappear from the streets, protests end as power struggle begins.

Protests begin again against remaining

members of the regime.

The Tunisian Miracle

Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution

Throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the Tunisian economy maintained an annual growth rate of about 5%

Primarily through exports and tourism with European countries.