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Transcript

"The Canadian-American Reciprocity Treaty of 1855 to 1866"

~ By Officer and Smith ~

Reciprocity Goods

Other Important Factors

Unreliable Evidence

Data Discrepancies

ie. US Department of Commerce and Navigation vs. Department of Finance

Impact of Smuggling

Lack of Records prior to 1849

Result: Undue focus on perceived trends and percentage trend

Wheat: primarily trade reallocation

Barley, Wool: demand resulting from civil war

Cheese: treaty no stimulus

1865: 12 Factories 1867: 235 Factories

Timber: railway

"Treaty could have influenced no more

than 15% of total canadian

exports"

American Civil War:

Rapid inflation

Increased demand: all goods

Increased canal use 1861-1865

Railway Boom:

Fueled demand for timber

Result:

Significantly fueled

economic growth

Trade Reallocation

Premise

Improper Data Aggregation

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Treaty Impact: Natural Goods

Segregation

Reciprocity Goods

Non-Reciprocity Goods

Result:

Large initial increase in trade of reciprocity items in first two year. Little further difference until Civil war.

Non-reciprocity items increase 1860+

onwards

To counter the traditional belief that the treaty alone had a substantial positive impact on BNA’s economic development.

Domestic to International

Decreased Transport Costs and Tariffs

But:

Extensive government funded renovations

Debt: 1850 - $18.78M

1859 - $54.12M

Result:

Negating/Potentially

negative Impact

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