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The Link Between Perception and Individual Decision Making

Decision Making Survey

Common Decision Making Errors

Brad, Moses, Anna

  • Escalation of Commitment
  • Increasing commitment to a decision in spite of evidence that it is wrong
  • Randomness Error
  • Creating meaning out of random events
  • Every decision requires interpreting and evaluating information

  • Which data are relevant to the decision and which are not?

  • Depends on the perception of the decision maker
  • Winner's Curse
  • Highest bidder pays too much due to value overestimation
  • Hindsight Bias
  • After an outcome is already known, believing it could have been accurately predicted beforehand

Decision Making Survey

Decision Making

Common Biases in Decision Making

The Rational Decision-Making Model

  • Overconfidence Bias

1. Define the problem

2. Identify the decision criteria

3. Allocate weights to the criteria

4. Develop the alternatives

5. Evaluate the alternatives

6. Select the best alternative

  • Believing too much in our own ability to make good decisions
  • Anchoring Bias
  • How individuals in organizations make decisions and the quality of their final choices are greatly influenced by their perceptions.

  • Decision making occurs as a reaction to a problem
  • Defining what is or is not a problem is based on your perception

Decision Making Survey

  • Using early, first received information to make judgements
  • Confirmation Bias
  • Selecting and using only facts that support decision
  • Availability Bias
  • Emphasizing information that is most readily at hand

What is Perception?

How Many Bars Do You See?

Shortcuts Used in Judging Others

  • A process by which individuals organize and interpret their sensory impressions in order to give meaning to their environment.

  • People's behavior is based on their perception of what reality is, not on reality itself
  • Selective Perception
  • Halo Effect
  • Contrast Effects
  • Stereotyping

Scenario 2

Scenario 1

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