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Nuclear War in South Asia and its Effects

By: Christian Templin and Harry Markel

Conclusion

While the nuclear weapons of India and Pakistan are small in number and relatively weak compared to most nuclear forces, their effects would be devastating.

A theoretical scenario of nuclear war in South Asia causes mass famine, starvation of billions and millions to die in the blasts.

To prevent this horrible scenario, great advances are being made to promote peace in the Indian subcontinent.

What is Being Done to Prevent Nuclear War in South Asia

What would be the effects of a nuclear war in South Asia?

  • Foreign countries promoting peace between India and Pakistan
  • Countries themselves are decreasing in tension - no anti-Indian platforms in 2013 Pakistani elections
  • Huge amounts of military force increasing damage and decreasing risk of war

To answer this, we must see the quality and quantity of weapons owned, and the quality of the defense systems. We can also see what is preventing this nuclear war.

Nuclear Defense Systems of India and Pakistan

Pakistan

  • Currently using a Chinese defense system
  • Not as effective as the Indian defense system

India

  • Currently developing their own system with a 70% success rate in a recent test
  • Currently using the SPYDER system from Israel.
  • Purchased the S-400 from Russia that will be delivered in 2020

Quality and Quantity of Nuclear Weapons Possessed by India and Pakistan

Pakistan

Likely Destruction as a Result of Nuclear War

  • Between 120 and 130 weapons
  • Largest test 12kilotons
  • Roughly four needed to destroy Philadelphia

India

  • Between 110 and 120 weapons
  • Claimed that their largest test was 45-60 kilotons, but was most likely 12-25 kilotons.
  • According to their claimed test, roughly two bombs would be needed to destroy Philadelphia.

Destruction from Fallout

Destruction from Initial Blasts

The blasts would incinerate all organic matter at the epicenter, releasing 5 megatons of black carbon into the atmosphere.

Black carbon is extremely good at absorbing heat, and the black carbon in the atmosphere would decrease world temperature by 1-2 degrees Celsius.

This change in temperature decreases wheat production by 50% and rice production by 20%, forcing 2 billion people into starvation.

While India and Pakistan have about 200 nukes in total, only about half would be able to strike due to defense systems.

About 100 million people would likely be killed in the initial blasts of the nuclear war, not to mention those killed in subsequent combat or fallout.

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