The UVic ESCM: Recent results, future directions

The UVic Earth System Climate Model:

Recent Results and Future Directions

Jeremy Fyke

What current science being

carried out using the UVic ESCM?

What is a climate model?

What can the UVic Earth System Climate Model do?

Current work using the UVic ESCM is the continuation of

many years of science at the UVic Climate Modelling Lab...

• Noun: Model (plural models): A simplified representation (usually mathematical) used to explain the workings of a real world system or event. (Wicktionary.org)
• All climate models attempt to represent the workings of one or more components of the climate system, using mathematical and computational language

The UVic ESCM is an active, Earth System climate model: designed to capture all important features of climate system, and realistically simulate climate system evolution over yearly-to-millennial timescales

• “Climate models can be used to understand the basic processes in Earth’s climate system, including climate forcing, feedbacks, and response.”

• “Climate models can be used to test hypotheses about how the system works.”

• “Climate models can be used to predict the state of the future climate.”

(Kiehl and Ramanathan, 2006)

• Climate models let us experiment on fake climates, without experimenting on the real Earth!

Interactions between components

Bathymetry/topography

Components of climate

What are the components of the climate system?

• Use understanding of physics to simulate the compoents of the climate and their interactions entirely within a computer program!

Air temperature

Current work is focussing on:

• Developing new components for the model
• Using latest model version to study past, present and future climate change

• Isotopes, 18O, 13C, 15N … (Catharine Brennan, Chris Somes, Andreas Schmittner)
• Soil carbon pools, permafrost, wetlands, CH4 (Chris Avis, Rita Wania)
• Terrestrial N cycle, photosynthetic limitation (Rita Wania)
• Ocean biology, iron limitation, N cycle (Andreas Schmittner, Andreas Oschilies, Chris Somes, Andy Ridgwell)
• Subgrid elevation (Michael Eby)
• PUMA atmospheric model (Andreas Scmittner)
• Terrestrial weathering (Katrin Meissner)
• Ice sheets (Jeremy Fyke, David Pollard, Michael Eby)

Greenland Ice Sheet evolution in high-carbon dioxide climates

Precipitation

The guts...

Permafrost evolution under anthropogenic climate change

do j=jsp1,jem1

do i=isp1,iem1

if (tmsk(i,j) .ge. 0.5) then!if ocean (not ice shelf), update fluxes every addflux

flux(i,j,isat) = flux(i,j,isat) + dts*(dnswr(i,j) &

- uplwr(i,j) - upltnt(i,j) - upsens(i,j))

flux(i,j,ishum) = flux(i,j,ishum) + dts*(precip(i,j) &

- evap(i,j))

(land_map(i,j) .ne. 0) then! if a landsurface that is controlled by mtlm

sbc(i,j,iat) = sbc(i,j,iat) + dts*(at(i,j,2,1) &

- hicel(i,j,2)*rlapse &

- elev(i,j)*rlapse)

sbc(i,j,irh) = sbc(i,j,irh) + dts*rh(i,j)

sbc(i,j,iaws) = sbc(i,j,iaws) + dts*sbc(i,j,iws)

sbc(i,j,iswr) = sbc(i,j,iswr) + dts*dnswr(i,j)

sbc(i,j,ipr) = sbc(i,j,ipr) + dts*precip(i,j)

if (psno(i,j) .ge. 0.) then

sbc(i,j,ips) = sbc(i,j,ips) + dts*psno(i,j)

sbc(i,j,ipr) = sbc(i,j,ipr) - dts*psno(i,j)

endif

enddo

enddo

Ocean temperature/salinity

Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change

Model resolution

1990

IPCC

Assessment

Reports: average

model grid size

Emissions guardrails

Ocean circulation

2007

Sea ice

Carbon cycle response to oceanic gateway changes

Ice sheets

Supporting IPCC AR5

Terrestrial/oceanic biology

• Earth system science is a wide-open and pertinent field, and modelling Earth system processes is advancing in leaps and bounds
• Models are an excellent path to understading the past climate change, and predicting future change
• The UVic ESCM is an active, LOCAL climate model that is providing exciting scientific results for the climate science community
• The climate research community at UVic is a world-class hub for climate research!

Full carbon cycle

• Simpler physics, and lower resolution compared to 'full' climate models: longer simulations (1000 years/week), or more simulations per experiment (especially with access to 100+ high performance computers!) are possible
• All model components 'coupled': complex interactions within the climate system can be explored
• Excellent tool for exploring large-scale climate processes in past, present, and future