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Strategic Estimate

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by T H on 19 December 2013

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Transcript of Strategic Estimate

Turkey
History:
Modern Turkey founded in 1923
1984, Emergence of Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK)
NOV 2003; Truck bomb targeting two Synagogues
NOV 2003; British Consulate and Bank targeted
JUL 2008; 86 people arrested for suspicion of planning to overthrow gov’t
MAR 2011; Syrian and Turkish relations deteriorate
MAY 2013; Anti-gov’t protest call for Erdogan’s resignation
DEC 2013; Turkey closes Turkey-Syria border

Population: 80,694,485 (July 2013 est.)

Demographics:
Major ethnic groups – TURKS
Minor ethnic groups – KURDS, ALBANIANS, LAZS, AZERBAIJANIS, ZAZAS, CHECHENS, CIRCASSIANS, ARABS, BOSNIAKS, TATARS, AMENIANS, GREEKS

Key Individuals/Groups:
Turkish 70-75%, Kurdish 18%, minorities 7-12%
Muslim 99.8% (mostly Sunni, 0.2% (mostly Christian and Jews)

Religion: 99.8 % MUSLIM, 0.2% CHRISTIAN AND JEWS

Cultural Attitudes:
Secularism vs Religion
Azerbaijan
Population/Demographics:

82,629 Sq Km (3,971 (Water))
10 economic regions; 66 districts and 77 cities
Largest city is Baku (over 2 million) followed by Ganja and Sumgayit (each with over 300k)
Population - 9,165,000 (July 2011)
91.60% Azerbaijanis (8.4% Lezgians, Russians, Talysh, Avars, Turks, Tatars, Tats, Ukrainians, Tsakhurs, Georgians, Jews, Kurds, and others)
95 percent Muslim (85% Shia and 15% Sunni)
Official language is Azerbaijani

Economics:
>10% of GDP is based on agriculture
64% of GDP is based on gas and oil exports
30% of GDP is based on service industry (construction, banking, real estate)

Security Sector:
Army, Air Force, Air Defense and Navy - 66,940
Border Guards – 5,000
Interior (Police) Ministry Troops - more than 10,000
Military training agreement with Russia Turkey, South Korea and NATO
Azerbaijan has contributed troops for the ISAF since 2003. Pledges to continue to support Afghanistan after 2014
Arms purchase agreements with Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Israel, and Belarus
South Azeri Peoples Army (SAPA) Ahurastan)), trained and armed by Iran has conducted attacks on Azerbaijan security forces
FMK insurgents conducted an attack on a nuclear power plant in Metsamor, Armenia
Turkey deployed an F-16 fighter squadron in support of Az. security
US has deployed SOF (ODA-B) into Az. in support of their security requirements
US has conducted Mil-Mil engagements in support of stability and economic improvements
Strategic Estimate
Caucasus Region

Staff Group A
Georgia
(Sakartvelo)
Demographics
27k sq. mi. (slightly larger than West Virginia) 4.56 million people (mostly ethnic Georgians, Orthodox Christian)
Historical Influences
Romans, Turks, Persians, Arabs, Ottomans, Mongols, Soviets
Current or Potential Conflicts
separatism of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Russian peacekeeping occupation, Russian terrorism
Economy
agriculture and metal exports,
dependent on gas and oil imports
Rail system connecting Batumi-Poti-Tbilis-Baku has been upgraded
Politics
Gained independence from USSR in 1991, Parliamentary Republic, President Margvelashvili and PM Garibashvili
Russia
Politics:
Seat of Former Soviet Union; Vladimir Putin rose to power in 1999; Directed military operations against Georgia and recognized the independence of Georgia’s separatist South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
(shifted focus to economic and domestic issues)
U.S. Political Relations:
President Obama canceled a U.S.-Russia summit meeting in September 2013 due to lack of progress by Russia on bilateral cooperation.
Economy:
World’s second-largest producer and exporter of oil and the world’s largest exporter of natural gas.
Armed Forces:
Less than 1 million troops (4.3 million Soviet troops in 1986). Troop readiness, training, morale, and discipline have suffered, and much of the arms industry has become antiquated; Remains a nuclear superpower.
(agreed to US-led coalition operations in Transcaucasus region with US & NATO)
Introduction
Recent Key Events:
Ahuristan and Luristan (western Iran) claimed independence in 2018
Last month, the Free Karabakh Movement (FKM, Azeri refugees) attacked a nuclear power plant in Metsamor, Armenia
Georgia continues discussions to integrate into NATO and enter the EU
Increased instability in Russian region of Tatarstan
In October 2019 the extent of Ahurastanian support for the SAPA became evident when Ahurastanian Army units began providing sporadic cross-border support to SAPA insurgents
In July 2019 Ahuristanian naval vessels confronted western commercial, Azeri, and Turkish oil exploration ships in the Caspian

Mission Statement
The mission of the U.S. is to establish strategic partnerships, military and interagency cooperation, and regional security operations to enhance transcaucus stability and peace.
Strategic Direction
US National Interests and Policy Goals
Promote trade, Northern Distribution Network
Limit Russian and Iranian influences
Ensure regional stability
Ahuristan threat; providing support and safe havens to SAPA/SAPP
Rail system between Georgia and Azerbaijan
Non-US/Multi-national Policy Goals
Promote Democracy, Trade
Resolve ethnic/regional conflicts
Improve regional security
Caspian Sea Oil debate between 5 Countries (Iran, Azerbaijan, Ahuristan, Russia, and Luristan)
US Domestic Considerations
Infrastructure corridor for transporting central Asian products west while avoiding Iran and Russia
US Aid

End State: Ensure security and stability, economic access, and promote democracy throughout region


Strategic Environment
Caucasus Regional Linkages
Major Strategic and Operational Problems and Challenges
Iranian Nuclear Ambitions

Russian military actions in region

Peace of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region in turmoil

Economic stability disrupted by aggressors

Oil pipeline currently controlled by Russia

Control of Caspian Sea natural gas and oil

Ahurastan conducts cross border attack ISO SAPA insurgents

Iran dealing with two break-away regions

Russia demand for US and NATO to accept Russian Forces in Georgia and us of its pipelines

Increase refugees ( over 1.0 MIL) in region

Rise in regional domestic insurgency (FKM) and economic divide between north and south Azerbaijan population



Potential Opportunities
Strengthen trade ties to undermine Iranian influence in region;
support EU and OSCE involvement in region

Link oil and natural gas exports through Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan to bypass Russia and Iran

Strengthen defense cooperation
potential mil-to-mil cooperation to curb Iranian nuclear program;
ODB to counter SAPA and prepare environment for potential follow-on forces
Military influence through NATO to demonstrate resolve and deter Ahurastan future hostile actions; balance against Russian and Iranian military support

Increase diplomatic relations to strengthen influence in region over Russia and Iran;
refugee assistance and public works projects to gain popular support for the U.S.

Establish regional security and diplomatic goals with key U.S. allies
Turkey, Georgia,
Azerbaijan
Partner with Russia and Iran to regain stability in region
Regional Analysis:(Non-state Actors)
International Governmental Organizations
Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE): Provides monitoring of "peacekeeping activities in Georgia
Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization: Organization that fosters political and economic initiatives; 1999 BSEC acquired international legal identity and was transferred into a regional organizational company. BSEC covers a geography encompassing the territories of the Black Sea littoral states.
World Trade Organization (WTO): Georgia has blocked Russia's admittance to the WTO as a result of the 2008 war.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA): Monitoring Iran's suspended uranium enrichment efforts as a result of the 2017 agreement.
Incident Prevention and Response Mechanisms (IPRM): monitoring group under the auspices of the OSCE, EU, and UN in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Multi National Corporations
Transnational energy corporations
source of income
security dynamics
potential obstacle to democratic transition
Gazprom
Russian owned
largest natural gas extractor
Major Business lines are geological exploration production, transportation, storage, processing and sales of gas, gas condensates and oil sales of gas as a vehicle fuel as well as generation of marketing of heat and electric power
Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan (BTC)
oil natural gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea
This and other pipelines are initiatives supporting the minimization of Russian and Iranian influence by bypassing Russian and Iranian transit routes.

Iran
History:
Since Cyrus the Great founded the Persian Empire over 2,500 years ago, Iran has stood proudly as one of the world’s greatest civilizations: US-Iranian relations strained when US orchestrated a coup in 1953 to bring the Shah back into power. Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after monarchy was overthrown. Diplomatic relations cut off in April 1980. Fought against Iraq from 1980-88.

Cultural Attitudes:
Iran is a non-Arab country, but deeply involved in the heart of the Arab world. Iran should honor its illustrious Persian heritage through continued displays of strength and power, and reclaim its place as an influential leader in the region and globally.

Government/Politics:
Iran's Syncretic political system combines elements of a parliamentary democracy with a religious theocracy run by the country's clergy, wherein the Supreme Leader wields significant influence and serves as the Commander in Chief.

Population/Demographics:

79,853,900 (July 2013 est.)
61% Persian, 16% Azeri, 10% Kurd, 6% Lur, 2% Arab, other1%
Religious mix: Muslim (official) 98% (Shia 89%, Sunni 9%), Other 2%

Key Individuals/Groups:
Iran hosts one of the largest refugee population in the world, with more than one million refugees, mostly from Afghanistan (80%) and Iraq (10%). Since 2006, Iranian officials have been working with the UNHCR and Afghan officials for their repatriation.




Russia con't
Interests:
Cooperation within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO); Putin proposed “Eurasian Union” of Soviet successor states
(Strengthening legitimacy in South Ossetia and Abkhazia; pursue Azerbaijani oil and gas through Russia to Western markets; oriented towards a UNSC resolution against Ahurastan where it can have quid pro quo arrangements to maintain Russia's influence in the region)
Objectives:
Exercise direct control or try to play a leading role regionally; build "mutually-beneficial," regional institutional arrangements
(shift to internal concerns - control Tatarastan to quell aspirations of South Ossetia and Abkhazia for independence)
U.S. Programs:
Late 2012, Russia asked USAID to leave and also informed the United States that it was unwilling to renew an agreement in its current form sanctioning Cooperative Threat Reduction (Nunn-Lugar) programs in Russia; consistently counter-U.S. in U.N. resolutions against Iran
(U.S. efforts seek to minimize Russian influence)
Regional Relations:
Armenia’s main trading partner, econ/military support; fluctuating relations with Azerbaijan; tense relations with Georgia

I
nterest/Objectives:
Development of a market economy
Pluralistic democracy based on rule of law
Resolve Armenian-Azerbaijan (Nagorno-Karabakh) conflict
Restore territorial integrity and sovereignty
Good relations with neighbors
Development of the Eurasian transport corridor
Security
Security of the Araz-Alov-Sharq oil fields
Security of infrastructure (roads, bridges, pipelines, railroads)
Containing the insurgency(s)

Flash Points:
Internal politics / civil rights / right to assembly
Strained relations with Russia, Iran and Armenia
Ethnic internal conflicts supporting multiple insurgencies
Support for the country not just the president/political party during internal conflicts
Unstable political situation resulting from the latest election (Rasizadze pro-democratic reform vs. SAPP)
Pronounced economic disparity between north annd south Azerbaijan feeds the insurgency
FMK insurgency
SAPP influence supported by SAPA
Non-state actors (continued)
Azerbaijan
NGOs
International Crisis Group: independent, non-profit, non-governmental organization committed to preventing and resolving deadly conflict
Crisis Group has written extensively for years on the dangers posed by this unresolved conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Estimates about 13-14% of Azerbaijan's territory, including most of the NK is controlled by NK Armenian forces
Georgia- South Ossetia region is increasingly less able to govern or sustain itself economically and must rely on Russian aid and occupation forces.
Freedom House :independent watchdog organization dedicated to the expansion of freedom around the world; develop rankings for levels of freedom
Political rights and civil liberties: Armenia and Georgia--> Partly free, Azerbaijan--> not free, NK and South Ossetia--> not free, Abkhazia--> partly free
Internet rights: Armenia and Georgia--> free, Azerbaijan--> free

Illegitimate Actors:
SAPP (South Azeri Peoples Party) – Originated in 2015 among the extended Azeri families that straddle the Azerbaijan-Iran Border. The Party’s failure to provide tangible results gave birth to its military arm (SAPA) in 2016.
SAPA (South Azeri Peoples Army) - Azeri fundamentalists in southern Azerbaijan who identified with Azeris in northern Iran. Initially trained and equipped by Iran; now supported by Ahurastan.
FKM (Free Karabakh Movement) – Insurgent Group composed of Azeri refugees driven from Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenians in 1993. Their goal is to force Armenian withdrawal from NK and right of return. Armenia has accused the Government of AZ of providing covert assistance to them.
Extremist Islamist groups: i.e. Hizb ut-Tahrir; advocates the creation of an Islamic caliphate in historically Muslim lands
Narcotics traffickers: primarily heroin and opium
Economy:
Iran has a publicly traded economy dominated by oil and gas production. Corruption and Govt control limit private sector growth. Intl sanctions led to a decline in the value of economy by more than half between 2012 and 2013.

Communications and Media:
Media is both publicly and privately owned but subject to government censorship in regards to anything divergent from current policy.

Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries:
Uncooperative regionally, eliminating outside influences in the region and pursuing extensive diplomatic contacts with developing and non-aligned countries.

Interests
: Military development, science and engineering, freedom of trade Regional dominance, independence and economic superiority.

Objectives:
Iran's stated goal is to establish a new world order based on world peace, global collective security and justice

Current or Potential Conflicts:
Iran still insists on one-fifth slice of the sea. Designated a state sponsor of terrorism and remains subject to US, UN, and EU economic sanctions and export control because of terrorism and nuclear ambition.
In order for Iran to regain influence over its fractured Ahuri segment, it must bolster support to the SAPP thru recognition of their legitimacy. Iran will also continue to provide support to the SAPA by way of State sponsorship to the insurgency. In order for Iran to maintain trade ties within Armenia and increase its interests in the Caspian it must leverage strong ties with Ahurastan to subvert Azerbaijan. This act aligns with Irans traditional position of independent action and disruption of western interests.




Key Facts:
Official name: The Republic of Armenia the capital is Yerevan
Population: 3.3 Million
Land size 11,484 square miles
Borders: Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Iran

Economics and Religion:
Services, Industry, and Agriculture (oil dependent)
Language: Armenian and Russian
Religion: 97% is Armenia Apostolic (Christian)

History:
Smallest of the former Soviet republics
Landlocked, earthquake ridden, rugged mountains
In A.D. 301, Armenia became the first Christian nation
Gained independence in 1918, Red Army/ USSR control since 1920
In 1988 conflict erupted with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia won independence in 1991 during the breakup of USSR
by 1994 Armenians had defeated Azeri forces and had control of Nagorno-Karabakh
The Armenian genocide in WWI by the Turks is also a point of contention and recognition by France and England, but not by US or Turkey

Armenia
Turkey
Turkey
Economy:
1.1 trillion, 3.5% 5yr growth, $14,517/capita, 35% income tax, 20% corp. tax.

Communications and Media:
Communications - comprehensive telecommunications network undergoing rapid modernization and expansion especially in mobile-cellular services
Media - Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) operates multiple TV and radio networks and stations; multiple privately-owned national television stations and up to 300 private regional and local television stations; multi-channel cable TV subscriptions available; more than 1,000 private radio broadcast stations (2009)

Interests:
Israel, Syria, Iran, Iraq

Objectives (make the distinction from Interests):
Energy (Euphrates Dam)
Economy (Oil)
Trade

Current US programs (Security Cooperation, Economic Assistance, etc.):
International Military Education and Training (IMET) – 3.6Million (FY13)
International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE) – 0 Million (FY13)
Nonproliferation, Antiterrorism, Demining, and Related Programs (NADR) – 0.9 Million (FY13)






Objectives:
Strengthening the country’s external security
Deepening engagement in the international organizations and processes
Strengthening cooperation with the friendly and partner states
Resolving regional problems and creating an atmosphere of cooperation

Interests:
Friendly partnership and enhancing cooperation with the United States.
Strengthening and deepening special partnership and allied relationship with Russia
Russia pressures Armenia to join Customs Union (AUG 13)
Integration into the European Union (EU) and NATO
Armenia and Turkey working to put genocide behind them

Current US Programs:
Free and democratic election schedule February 2014
Recognition of regions strategic importance( Global energy corridor, key node on the NDN, interest for both Russia and Iran, regional instability
Building the south Caucasus pipelines & Troops contributing nation to NATO
US Foreign Assistance FY12 $44M, FY13 $37M, FY14 $31M








Current or Potential Conflicts:
Syria struggle for Euphrates’ water dam for flood control and energy source.
Kurdish Workers Party threaten guerilla warfare; accusing Turkey of waging war with Kurds in Syria.
Internal struggle to remain as a secular state

Government/Politics:
Chief of state: President Abdullah GUL
Head of government: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ERDOGAN
Republican Parliamentary Democracy
550 member Legislative branch (4yr terms)
Sixty-one political parties (11 sign.)

Turkey requests US Department of Energy technical assistance to deal with potential disastrous effects of the Metsamor situation

Impact of Factors on Relations with Other Countries:
Russian pipeline support challenges Turkey/ US relations
Turkey approved military action against Kurds in Iraq, straining Islamic relations.
Armenia – Diplomatic Relations as of OCT 2009 (NUETRAL to NEGATIVE)
Azerbaijan – PRO;
Deployed F-16 Squadron to counter Ahuristan and Turkmenistan threat.
Georgia – PRO

Armenia Con't
Georgia
(con't)
Interests
NATO and Europe, anti-Russian, imports oil and natural gas
Objectives
democratic order, economic freedom, a social state governed by the rule of law, to ensure universal human rights and freedoms and to strengthen state independence and peaceful co-existence with other nations.
US Programs
2009 Strategic Partnership Charter, $70m in Economic Assistance
Relations
– (see Regional Linkages slide) + ADB, BSEC, CD, CE, EAPC, EBRD, FAO, G-11, GCTU, GUAM, IAEA, IBRD, ICAO, ICC (national committees), ICRM, IDA, IFAD, IFC, IFRCS, ILO, IMF, IMO, Interpol, IOC, IOM, IPU, ISO (correspondent), ITSO, ITU, ITUC (NGOs), MIGA, OAS (observer), OIF (observer), OPCW, OSCE, PFP, SELEC (observer), UN, UNCTAD, UNESCO, UNIDO, UNWTO, UPU, WCO, WHO, WIPO, WMO, WTO


Flash Points of Potential
Conflicts
Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) region of Armenia: Region inside Azerbaijan disputed by Azerbaijan and Armenia since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Occupied by Armenia. Population is now 95% Armenian.
This has resulted in 250,000 refugees in Ahurastan and 750,000 displaced persons in Azerbaijan
.
OSCE-mediated efforts since 1992 have yet to produce a negotiated settlement. As a result, the Free Karabakh Movement (FKM) developed as an insurgent group composed of Azeri refugees driven from Nagorno-Karabakh by the Armenians in 1993. Their goal is to force Armenian withdrawal from NK and right of return. Armenia has accused the Government of AZ of providing covert assistance to them.

Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia:
Russia continues to occupy the region but it is unlikely they will become belligerent as they benefit from maintaining the status quo.

Reoccurrance of militant activity in Chechnya

Araz-alov-sharq oil field (Caspian Sea)
5
regions claiming ownership

Ahurastan: Breakaway Iranian province that is populated by the same ethnic group (Azeri Turks) as Azerbaijan. It disputes Azerbaijan oil claims in Caspian and supports SAPP and SAPA.

Azerbaijan: A friendly country being threatened by an insurgency. Claims significant oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea. Country of origin for BTC Pipeline. In 2015, the SAPP (South Azeri Peoples Party) originated among the extended Azeri families that straddle the Azerbaijan-Iran Border. The Party’s failure to provide tangible results gave birth to its military arm (SAPA) in 2016. The SAPA was initially trained and equipped by Iran; now supported by Ahurastan.




Armenia 2019:

Search for reliable source of energy to sustain its manufacturing
Concern about water pollution
Construction of new nuclear power plant
NK Region still not settled
Security of new power plant, radiation
Human rights issue: crackdown on freedom of press and speech, and police brutality
Tension with Turkey (Turkey sides with AZ)
750,000 refugee in Azerbaijan

Armenia Con't
Ahurastan
History:
The National Liberation Movement of Southern Azerbaijan (NLMSA), headed by Piruz Dilenchy, was one of the main Azeri national movements which formed in northern Iran in 2017. Elections took place in “Ahurastan” in the fall of 2018, and Dilenchy’s National Liberation Movement of Southern Azerbaijan (NLMSA) won with a majority (68 per cent) of the vote. The newly empowered parliament elected Dilenchy as the first “president” of Ahurastan.

Religion:
Most Ahurastanians are Muslim; 89% belong to the Shi'a branch of Islam, the official “state” religion, and about 10% belong to the Sunni branch which the majority of these are Kurd.

Population/Demographics:
Almost four-fifths of Ahurastan's people are of ethnic Azeri origin--their ancestors migrated from Central Asia. The majority of both rural and urban Kurds in the Ahurastan provinces of West Azerbaijan and Kurdestan practice Sunni Islam.

Economy:
The society that currently comprises Ahurastan has traditionally been agricultural, with some industrialization and economic modernization in the larger cities. Since breaking away from Iran, Ahurastan is also totally dependant on oil imports from Kazakhstan and, more importantly, natural gas from Turkmenistan to keep what industry it has operational. The most contentious issue involving Ahurastan and competition over natural resources is that of the use of the Caspian Sea's oil and natural gas reserves by its littoral states – Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan.






Ahurastan
Military:
The regular military has ground, air, and naval components, about 200,000 men on active duty, and a reserve force of about the same strength.

Ahurastan has defensive cyber capabilities which it inherited in its breakaway from Iran. Iran had invested heavily in the buildup of their defense after the Stuxnet attack. Based on this prior attack on Iran, Ahurastan has made defending its networks a top priority.

In support of is deterrence policies, Ahurastan has taken over WMD-related facilities from Iran, but cannot produce a
nuclear weapon
for at least five to seven years, assuming commitment from North Korea. Ahurastan is pursuing the acquisition of
biological weapons
as well from Russia. Ahurastan has a significant
chemical warfare
capability. It is likely to have stockpiled several tons of chemical agents in bulk and weaponized form, including nerve, blister, choking, and blood agents, which it seized from Iran during the revolt.

Ahurastan has a limited number of surface-to-surface missile warheads capable of employing chemical munitions. However, with its Shahab 3 missile units it can range the deployment ports in Georgia as well as airfields in Turkey and Iraq.

Ahurastan is adapting its military to employ a combination of regular and irregular forces, including criminal elements to achieve their objectives using an ever changing variety of conventional and unconventional tactics to create multiple dilemmas.


Alternate Ways/Options
Assessment of Risks
Recommendations
Consider ways/options across the DIME/MIDLIFE
Military: continued use of SOF w/ FID mission; civil military operations to shape regional interests; increase foreign military financing
Information: expose Ahurastan corruption in GOV; IO campaign positively showcases US intent in region;
Diplomatic: relations with Turkey IOT strengthen partnership w/Azerbaijan; enable UN and NATO to take lead diplomatically in region; signal to belligerent states that violence not tolerated;
Law Enforcement: enhanced border security training/operations; JIAC to support basic policing actions/port security; utilize IAEA to prevent nuclear proliferation of WMDs
Intelligence: covert OGA operations; increase targeting cycle against SAPP/SAPA on belligerent states; conduct IO/MISO campaign; persistent ISR to gather data;
Finance: utilize WTO to influence oil revenue distributed fairly in region; add SAPA to list of terrorist orgs to freeze financial assets;
Economic: initiatives to link oil pipeline/gas exports from east Caspian Sea to BCT pipeline to minimize Russian/Iranian influence; trade alliances with friendly states to promote economies

How should the US/EUCOM confront the challenges posed by the Caucasus regions?




Compare potential challenges with anticipated capabilities

Challenge 1
Maintain stability against threats in Caucasus region
Capabilities: Limited capability, assisted by SOF FID mission, JIAC security partnerships
Risk: Western influence potential to inflame insurgency, leave other security measures open
Mitigation: Maintain diplomatic ties within region

Challenge 2
Weapons threat from SCUD, Nodong-1, Shahab-3 missiles in Ahurastan region
Capabilities: NATO missile defense shield in region
Risk: Potential for nuclear/biological weapon proliferation to counter defense shield
Mitigation: IAEA influence in region; limit weapons trade between threat countries



Based on the strategic estimate process, what would you recommend to the EUCOM commander?

Develop a detailed multinational CONPLAN for any future military operations within the region
Maintain FID mission to enhance security in region
Highlight refugee assistance and public works, CMO to enhance political and social progress in region
Reprioritize Theater Security Cooperation Plan engagements to Trans-Caucasus region




Assessment of Risks (Cont.)
Compare potential challenges with anticipated capabilities

Challenge 3
Threat on Caspian Sea on commercial vessels involving oil shipments
Capabilities: NATO/US/Russian naval sanctions/support
Diplomatic rules/laws with regard to commerce vessels in Caspian Sea
Risk: Possible; defacto recognition of Ahurastan
Reduced US effectiveness in naval operations
TICs and TIMs
Mitigation: Support/secure Caspian waterways w/NATO and Russian navy
Protect oil rigs
Partner w/international naval partners
SOFA w/ Iran to combat Ahurastan influence in Caucasus region

Challenge 4
Multiple state/non-state actors vying for economic interests
Capabilities: Coalition via UN, OSCE, EU, and NATO
Diplomacy towards countries of BTC for US economic access
Risk: Non participation isolation of Iran/Russia
Mitigation: UN oversight/UNSC resolutions




From Mr. Monteclaroes

Recommendations Can Go Across The DIME
Recommendation - Humanitarian Missions...Navy

E: EOCOM protect pipelines thru diplomatic means
F: Freeze FKM assets
D: Diplomatic clearance; air space and ground and port authority to region
D: NATO assist; OSCE --> Last resort US led coalition
M: Stand up joint planning group
M: Increase $ to Azerbaijan, turkey,Georgia
I: Increase ISR coverage (SAT); or national means (IMINT)
I: Religious considerations; use communication infrastructure
I: push out messages; reach out to populatization
Challenge 1: Deploy Strike Group to Black Sea
Challenge 2: EUCOM CDR can only protect host nation resources
See the full transcript