Institutions Data Implications of change:
skills mismatch Skill bottlenecks are already ILO Approach to Anticipating Skill Needs Global Drivers of Change Technology and Innovation Demographic Change Climate Change and Transition to the Green Economy The change has always been out there and has always been a challenge But technology and innovation
drive the change ever faster We live in an ever-changing world Increased competition not only for new markets but also: the global competition for talent ! Projected gap between labour supply and demand in selected countries by 2020 The developed world is ageing fast: labour shortages are expected Workforce in most developing countries is still young Solutions: Shortage predicted (McKinsey Global Institute 2012): What drives skills change here: Transition to the green economy:
creative destruction of jobs 34% of employers report recruitment difficulties
due to lack of skills needed for jobs The pool of available labour: 200 million of the unemployed Source: Manpowergroup A mismatch between skills offered and
skills wanted is a major challenge Consequences of skills mismatch: unemployment 3500 B.C. 2008 1040 B.C. (cc) image by jantik on Flickr 1896 1981 Predict the exact number of bricklayers, nurses or
engineers demanded on the labour market Translate data into soft indicators, trends, scenarios and strategies Identify relevant data and tools Anticipating skill needs Source: UN, ILO skills for exporting industries, productivity and competitiveness Source: WEF 2010 The global workforce is growing 75 million young people worldwide are already unemployed Environmental degradation, policy and regulation, new clean technologies, new types of market opportunities may result in low productivity, low wage, low skill demand equilibrium – a vicious circle concentrate in localities impact on production and trade patterns high staff turnover low productivity sub-optimal work organization lower wages suboptimal technologies firms recruit at suboptimal skill levels wage differentiation and growing inequality, inflation 18th century steam engine Does Does not These predictions should be left to other professions a major barrier Higher global mobility of labour expected Provide young people with the relevant skills to attract investments and create jobs Skills for higher productivity and employment activation measures (e.g. LLL, technology skills for aging workers etc.) in developing countries: 45 million workers with
secondary education in manufacturing and services globally: about 40 million of college educated workers Integrate skills into national and sector development strategies Include skills in responses to global drivers of change Globalization of Markets Educational Attainment More and better skills may lead to economic growth The value of world trade in information and communication technology (ICT) goods increased from US$1,000 billion in 1996 to over US$3,500 billion in 2007 Skills Mismatch A Dynamic Development Process Match supply to current demand for skills and prepare for future jobs Analyze and discuss which institutional arrangements are conducive to matching demand
and supply of skills Key elements of skills anticipation Progress in educational attainment: increase in average years of schooling among 15-24 year olds (UNESCO) In developing countries: from 3.5 to over 8.5 years (between 1950 and 2010) but girls achieve only 84% of boys attainment In developed countries: from 7 to 10 years during 1 decade Skills Jobs Olga Strietska-Ilina ILO, Geneva Skills and Employability
Department www.ilo.org/skills Do we forecast jobs or skills, how to align them? Do we forecast local/national or global market needs? What is the silver bullet in skills anticipation? How to kill the fast running rabbit? More talents compete for (less) jobs Non-routine skills become a critical source of competitive advantage Demand for higher: Jobs and talent become mobile with businesses Flatter structures Virtual work flexibility adaptability and mobility, team work, initiative, leadership, management skills and interpersonal/ intercultural communication Labour market imperfections Public goods Market externalities Limited geographical mobility Behavioral factors: Irrational decisions of labour market actors (careers, wages) Room for public policy Why does not market solve the skills supply/demand mismatch? Imperfect information on jobs and skills availability Time lag between skill supply and labour market demand knowledge of foreign languages ICT skills environmental awareness retraining needs changing occupations emerging occupations Skills implications: Ability to innovate, adopt and maintain technologies STEM skills (participation of women!) Skills and policy implications: portable skills Skills and policy implications: 600 million new jobs needed in 2020 in order to keep current employment rates (majority of them in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa) (WDR 2013) “When the winds of change blow, some seek shelter, others build windmills” – an old Chinese Proverb More than 70 % of citizens with tertiary education in Haiti, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago live abroad 20-27 % of all physicians in the US, Australia, and Canada are foreign-trained What will be your strategy? to ensure there is enough skilled workforce to attract investments, help businesses to be competitive and to move up in the value chain of global markets To prepare our students for the jobs to come, and to provide workers with skills, which could help them to adjust to change, and a career counsellor a policy maker a worker an employer or just a citizen an expert a trainer Whether you are: The system has to be problem-solving driven What is behind the need: policy or information function, or both? Policy clarity: demand-driven or skills-driven? The system has to be user oriented The system has to be stakeholder-owned The system has to be coordinated Competent institutions and expert networks Good data coverage and complementarity of information Coverage of all relevant levels (macro, meso, micro) When one driver / one policy changes it all Checklist on skill needs assessment for broader national and sectoral employment policy analysis Joint work with ETF and Cedefop on a family of guides: Macroeconomic level skill needs forecasting and foresighting Skills anticipation and matching by intermediary agencies The use of LMI for skills anticipation and matching Skills for Green Jobs Renewables and Green Building Skills for Trade and Economic Diversification (STED) to retain and attract talent who gets the skills = gets green jobs (women, youth, etc.) Good-quality education is a foundation Methods PES data on vacancies and job seekers LMI Building Blocks LFS Education
and training statistics Coordination at national level PPP's at all levels Sectoral bodies Guide on generic sectoral approaches in skills anticipation When different drivers matter generic tools are more appropriate Good practices in skills anticipation Wages statistics HRD Recommendation (no. 195), 2004 Conclusions on Skills for Improved Productivity, Employment, Growth and Development - adopted at ILC 2008 G20 Training Strategy, 2010 ILO Global Policy Framework Related to Skills Institutional and analytical capacity low or no ROI in training Examples of skills mismatch measurement
Normative method: levels of educational attainment attributed to occupations (e.g. ISCO) (vertical mismatch). LFS.
Statistical method: actual distribution of educational attainment or field per occupation (vertical and horizontal mismatch). LFS.
Self-declared method: workers’ views on matching between their education and job (vertical and horizontal mismatch). Tracer studies, employees’ surveys. Share of graduates in science and technical fields (%) Source: Eurostat - UOE statistics LMI building blocks (enrollments, graduation,
participation)See the full transcript