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Fantasy Hack
2
Transcript
Fantasy Hack
What did I want to Create?
An automated system that
- Inputs a draft strategy
- Outputs a win percentage
This is Nick
Nick is a Doctor
Nick thinks he is always right
Nick is also the Commish of our Fantasy League
- And he started to tell me how I should draft my team
- And we argued about it
- And I realized I wanted a way to test my hypotheses
- So I started to hack
Why Do We Hack?
What you get
- To make our life easier
- To make others' lives easier
- To prove our friends wrong
- The ability to test your position strategy weights using real data and see your probability of winning the league
- Firepower when you argue with Nick
How does it work?
- User Input
- Draft Simulator
- Season Simulator
- Repeats Draft and Season Simulator 1000 times
The punchline
Draft Simulator
Season Simulator
- Using stochastic programming, for each of the other 9-11 teams in the fantasy league the system draws from a random distribution to model draft strategies for all the other players
- In each round of the draft a player makes a decision based on his perceived value of the player
- This is calculated by multiplying the position weight as determined by the draft strategy and discounting the value based on current roster makeup (so that you don't end up with 13 running backs).
- The simulator runs through each draft round until all 10-12 teams have full rosters
- To make life easier I ignored the week by week roster changes due to 'starting lineups' and injuries
- This is a flaw but it drastically reduces complexity
- A H2H schedule is determined wherein each team iteratively goes through a matchup with another team
- Weekly scores are calculated using historical data
- A weekly win is calculated by whichever team has the higher score in the H2H matchup
- Player with the most wins at the end of the season wins the league
User Input
- The user assigns a weighted value to each position on their team
- So if I think running back is the most important position I am going to weight it at 5
- If I think Defense is not so important I will give it a 1
When I told Nick about this system his response was:
"That's not how I would do it, what you really should do is....."
THE AGGRAVATION!!!!
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