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We'll start by looking at . . .
Next, we'll look at the EU's projections.
Let's see what a leading think tank in Russia foresees.
Finally, let's see what
NATO anticipates
What will our world be like
in the next fifteen to twenty years?
Notice the direct positive relationship between economic growth and urbanization
We will grow older on average together.
and, perhaps, also in what they will value.
More people from Asia, for example, will have middle class aspirations, in what they buy . . .
See how individual countries have aged over the past decades. Visit http://projects.flowingdata.com/life-expectancy/
and witness global cultural convergence
On the other hand, the world could be more conflicted for many reasons
An Urban World
Another possible world . . .
will share
might focus on societal trends rather than the . . .
Commerce
Shared
Ideas
Commerce
Shared
Ideas
$
Culture
Communication
$
Travel
But, in life, it's not only what you know . . .
Building re-fuelable rockets that could propel us to Mars in the next two decades
Resilient
An individual can design and print musical instruments
An individual can design and print rocket parts
"Yes!—All the best people in life seem to like Linux."
An individual could design and print houses
can fly and coordinate
Bill Gates
Creepy
Fast
to both controversy and celebrity.
and in the future
"An individual shouldn't just think about software . . . "
Automatically
creating new technologies and challenging preconceived notions of how business can be done . . .
richest man in the world
But an individual doesn't have to be a billionaire to change what people read.
"But, you know, Bill, there might be more disruptive ways that an individual can change the world."
Or anyone could compromise establishments anonymously
,
who would then . . .
Two other individuals have also empowered themselves and others with a little bit of code.
The one man who invented the Internet
And printing could help one individual develop one technology of the future we all were promised.
change how people watch movies . .
Another individual also changed how business is done in other ways. . .
Although neither of these two individuals accomplished these feats on their own, each played a significant role in changing the world with technology—empowering themselves and others.
give almost all of it away
who started an open-source movement
ensuring that it
"Well, Woz, that's not quite it either."
Individuals that think about technology this way can build computers people love.
Traditional players may adapt technology for their purposes and take controversial measures to counter threats new and old.
Let's start
with the original disrupter.
and change how people communicate with one another . . .
change how people listen to music . . .
"You need to think about design—how everything fits together. You need to . . . "
it's also about who you know.
The Harvard dropout who programmed software for personal computers
that would . . .
Some may make more socialable ones
and how we read.
Robots
Some other individuals are also developing new ways to drive
But an individual
can also open
a global debate on privacy, surveillance, liberties . . .
And challenging old industries to compete to build electric cars
Like this person
An investor who saw the potential of networks before anyone else . . .
Other individuals might build robots that are amazing and . . .
to build self-replicating 3D printers
They can change advertising . . .
aspires to use big data to challenge the dichotomy of security versus liberty.
Helping us find what we are looking for . . .
Another "mafia" member is extending new frontiers of liberty
lead to an technology empire, making him the . . .
changing the way we shop
A connected individual can openly expose government secrets—legally or not.
They are also changing the way we see . . .
An individual can connect over a billion people.
perhaps contributing to the human development of more people than other individual or most states.
now . . .
But one member of a "mafia" that changed how money moves is taking measures to safeguard liberties in new ways.
And by launching balloons into the air to expand internet access to billions, they are building on the work of . . .
Harnessing the power of the sun for more sustainable energy sources
Anyone can.
A more crowded planet
of 8 billion people
Shared
Ideas
However, there is one reason to believe that the future world may be less conflict-ridden and less Hobbesian.
Can you think of other reasons why or how
Another world could have more . . .
Evidence.
One world might have more . . .
Or maybe another could be . . .
states
conflict among
demanding middle class comforts, competing over resources, and adapting to climate change, and migrating to cities
And as cities grow, so will economies
,
societies
We are living in the most peaceful time in history.
The news may be marginally positive.
What demographic is the most violent cohort in history?
They might be . . .
Economies in least developed regions such as Africa and the Middle East have seen modest economic growth.
Young, unemployed men.
States
Some
countries
Also, the historical decline of violence may extend to these outer-network regions too, after decades of rising intrastate conflicts are beginning to decline.
For more on complexity, cooperation, and conflict read:
While the average demographic age structure of the world will continue a trend of maturing . . .
What will life be like for
outside of those
networks?
So far we have only looked at states that are in a network of emerging or established wealth and relative peace.
An anarchic order without strong linkages or effective international institutions may preclude sovereign states from ever connecting with one another in the way people can.
However, we should not be overly optimistic.
So there are material incentives for emerging countries to continue working within the liberal order and with the West
, &
individuals
One possible world . . .
the rest of the world will get older, and the most violent demographic will decline . . .
Some countries will effectively have no future better than today.
will lead to new liberties . . .
except in certain regions.
What do you think might cause this?
even with strangers from distant places . . .
The biggest difference is that
5 billion people
will be connected for the first time.
For many of you, this may be old news.
but with similar access to technology
and opportunities to enjoy more liberties.
with different perspectives . . .
Another cause may be resource competition, particularly over water in these same regions.
Let's explore a few reasons.
and to connect with
others . . .
What other actors do you think might challenge state interests?
States
exist within regions
This never-before-seen level of complexity will turn our traditional relationships upside down . . .
The economic rise of countries like
might emphasize trends related to the . . .
How has technology led to these new liberties?
The ways of the world may not change. But the actors will.
The post-World War II architects created a mutually beneficial order that facilitated . . .
that are more networked
While the major story of the next century is the rise of Asia, particularly China and India . . .
Think about the connections.
But Asia will not be the only
region to see growth.
These changing political dynamics may lead to interstate conflict . . .
Other worlds might
than
others
Can you think of other ways the world might be more complex in the future?
This world could be made of one
global unitary
The global story is not only about the relative decline of the West and the rise of the East, but it is also the emergence of the global South . . .
,
such as the . . .
Why do you think rising states might cooperate?
state
In the future, technology will continue a long trend of empowering individuals to leap over obstacles.
or many . . .
Connectivity.
However, nor is this a story of absolute decline.
Let's take a look at how the globe has been changing
How might we mitigate these global problems with local solutions?
Individuals, communities, businesses, academics and policymakers have convened with think tanks, states, and multilateral organizations to produce trends reports for the year 2030.
Let's look at the US predictions.
NATO looked at the future systematically, first identifying structural drivers.
A think tank in Russia evaluated four themes, first focusing on international security.
Focusing on three themes, the EU first told a narrative of individual empowerment.
The US focused on four megatrends.
They then focused on deterministic drivers.
The EU continued
its narrative with qualified human development.
They then looked at the global economy.
The final two themes the Russian policymakers looked at were sociology and ideology.
They also considered several game-changers.
Finally, NATO questioned how systems might be compromised by sources of threat.
And they completed their narrative with a polycentric world.
We'll use today as our starting point.
GLOBAL TRENDS, VALUES, AND ETHICS
And trends show that there is something about states that has contributed to this centuries-long decline.
Archeological, ethnographic, and historical trends shows that violent death from warfare is on the decline since the beginning of humanity.
Interstate conflict is approaching 0.
Soft power may matter more than material power.
"No duh."
The rise of the technologically empowered
For more on cities, read or visit:
Cities from all regions will grow.
But Asia will not be the only region to see cities proliferate
Cities from emerging countries will lead in the growth of global demand
The births of an additional 1 billion people, continuing economic growth, and migration trends, will lead to approximately 60% of the world's population will live in cities.
Today, over half the world's
7 billion people live in cities.
A complex world of more than
vs
or societies
vs
Transnational civil societies, terrorists, and criminals
"What do you think? How will the the connectivity of billions of people change the course of the future?"
<
will form societies
Health
Friends
and Family
In the future, mayors may play a more influential role in people's daily lives international, national, or state leaders
They may be able to better cope with water, resource, and energy scarcities with responsive planning, technology, and infrastructure.
Brazil
Russia
India
South
Africa
China
Turkey
Create
Think
"Yeah, totally. Look at some of the most influential individuals today who have challenged the power of governments and industries."
Increasingly interdependent and interconnected s
Commerce
Shared
Ideas
Culture
Communication
$
Travel
Take a look at the top 75 cities of the future.
(You can zoom in and click and drag)
Did you notice how many cities you've probably never heard from one are in one particular country?
"or just about hardware . . ."
"What do you mean, 'No duh'?! We are living in singular moment—a golden age of technology—not simply a continuation of a centuries-long trend. Our future will be fundamentally different."
US
EU
cooperation
Cities
Resources
Climate Change
=
Carnegie Council for Ethics and International Affairs, “What Is Distinct About Our Era?,” Thought Leaders Forum, February 2014, video available at www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/thought-leaders/questions/distinct.
Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, The New Digital Age: Reshaping the Future of
People, Nations and Business (New York: Random House, 2013). See a video presentation of the book, “Google’s Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen: The New Digital Age,” at Oxford University, June 14, 2013.
Peter Theil and Blake Masters, Zero to One: Notes on Startups or How to Build the Future (Crown Business, 2014) or Masters’s lecture notes on Thiel’s spring 2012 Stanford course, “CS183: Startup” at www.blakemasters.com/peter-thiels-cs183- startup. Or Peter Thiel, “You Are Not a Lottery Ticket,” South by Southwest Interactive 2013
conference, October 14, 2013.
"No duh. What you're talking about is globalization, which has been happening for centuries. This type of complexity, while more intricate, is only a difference in number, not kind."
Shifting political and economic asymmetries
Uncertainty about the intentions of other states
for a number of reasons
State leaders serving their citizens before foreigners
Global market competition for resources
Since the trends predicted by each organization are different both in kind and degree, they each predict different future worlds.
Let's look at a few.
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), “Multiple Futures Project: Navigating Towards 2030,” 2009.
National Intelligence Council (NIC), “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,”
Washington, DC: Office of the Director of National Intelligence, December 2012.
Alexander A. Dynkin, “Strategic Global Outlook 2030,” Moscow: Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, 2011.
European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS), “Global Trends 2030:
Citizens in an Interconnected and Polycentric World,” Paris: Institute for Security Studies, European Union, April 2012.
vs
Empowered individuals
The internet has allowed us to quickly and easily access information and create new neural connections . . .
Consume
Time
individual
look at trends on actors larger than
individuals
individual
See how the face of the planet is changing yourself. Interact with these maps yourself at:
https://earthengine.google.org/#intro
29 years old and hearing myself for the 1st time!
The new bionics that let us run, climb and dance