42
source: Parag Khanna
city
as percentage
...or specialise
> 10 million
2016: 30 cities
...2030: 41 cities
next generation of wealth creators
connect to global hubs
social impact investment
city regions / china
source: Parag Khanna
prepare for change
get bigger
measure outcomes
Øresund Bridge
21st century Hanseatic League
iPhone supply chain
by value
45% global trade
3000 jobs
per destination
new silk road
thames valley trade clusters
the 'Squaire'
FTZ
source: AECOM
MARKET DEMAND
driverless
30%-50%
europe usa
pittsburgh
(uber)
singapore
(taxi)
San Francisco
Austin
Kirkland
Boston
London
Beijing
Helsinki
Tokyo
the magic hour
successful cites have always been the same maximum 'size'
< 1 hour diameter
jerusalem rome changan amsterdam venice constantinople lisbon london berlin paris new york
urban
context
agglomeration
30 mega cities (2018)
41 mega cities (2030)
mega-city population
> 10 million
futures
commute times
proxy for success
...sometimes
population density
global middle class
source: Parag Khanna / Connectography
70%
source: AT Kerney
global competitivity
20%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
workforce character
Source: OECD Development Centre
influenced by migration flows...
.45-.49
.50-.54
.55-.59
>.60
NA
global population
4
5
2
3
1
inaffordability
proxy for global attraction...
1970 3.7 billion
2010 6.9 billion
2050 9.7 billion
6
36% urban
50% urban
70% urban
different cultures value different things...
already started...
source: steelcase
Texas
Triangle
7
industrial revolution
migration
city-regions
latin america
...consolidating regions via cities
north america
source: Parag Khanna / Connectography
flows to geographies
not all the same...
2008 2013 2018
oceana
0 5 10 15 20
outcome-based planning
4 degrees celsius warmer...
median multiple annual gross income
sources: BIS; Bloomberg; CREA; Halifax; OECD; Quotable Value; RP Data-Rismark; Thompson Reuters; UN; national sources
southeast asia
africa
separatist movements
...but who do you reconnect with?
east asia
inaffordability
CITY
Exxon Mobil
PetroChina
General Electric
Gazprom
China Mobile
ICBC
Microsoft
AT&T
Royal Dutch Shell
Proctor and Gamble
Apple Inc.
Exxon Mobil
Berkshire Hathaway
PetroChina
Wal-Mart
General Electric
Microsoft
IBM
Nestle
Chevron
Apple Inc.
Alphabet Inc.
Microsoft
Amazon
Tencent
Berkshire Hathaway
Alibaba Group
JP Morgan Chase
Johnson&Johnson
proxy for global attraction...
$851 B
$717 B
$703 B
$701 B
$508 B
$492 B
$471 B
$464 B
$377 B
$344 B
$453 B
$424 B
$370 B
$300 B
$298 B
$277 B
$264 B
$231 B
$220 B
$215 B
$416 B
$404 B
$257 B
$255 B
$246 B
$240 B
$240 B
$238 B
$234 B
$231 B
18
15
12
9
6
3
0
?
europe
south asia
smart
billions...
2050
migrating
2016 / US election results ...by state
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
...elimination of >50% of today’s jobs:
west asia
fmr soviet union
median multiple annual gross income
source: Wittgenstein Centre
source: 13th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (2016: 3rd Quarter)
GINI
not just transportation...
/ manufacturing,
/ farming
/ mining
/ security
/ construction
/ retail
/ hotel service
/ aviation
/ basic healthcare
/ insurance
etc...
2016 / US election results ...population weighted
Source: Parag Khanna / Connectography
source: Mark Newman/University of Michigan
source: Parag Khanna / Connectography
rising inequalities
after devolution: re-aggregation
regions re-connect via cities
...especially where regions not integrated with their cities
climate
technology
agglomeration
migration
attraction
size
separation
aggregation
...transformation of products into services
MARKET SATURATION
sharing economy
driverless
(extreme) sharing
cars unused 96% of time
emerging business models
urban regeneration...
houston
30%-50%
land area devoted to streets and parking
europe usa
land supply
time cars parked
source: AECOM
source: wikimedia
christopher.choa@aecom.com