Thomas Robert Malthus
this will lead to disastrous results:
unchecked population growth will lead to point where we exceed our capacity to feed ourselves
vs.
- case for optimism
- we do have problems, but we also have POTENTIAL
- Technologies in energy, computing, medicine, etc. advancing at exponential rate - potential for abundance
- Do-it-yourself innovation - new technologies allow small groups to now tackle problems on their own, can stop depending on big corps/governments
- Techphilanthropists - providing necessary capital/major contributions to world's less fortunate, care about whole world in a new way
- "Rising Billion" - the worlds poorest of the poor who are now able to lessen their burden because of technology
- technologies follow a pattern of exponential growth
- Ex. telephone lines, computer processing speed
- new technologies continue to be created to help cross barriers of other technologies
- "every eighteen months, the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles"
- Can be thought of as computers getting twice as fast for the same price every 18 months
- most famed of all tech trends
- has stayed accurate for five decades
- a limitation of human thought processes through uninformed brain functions
- Diamandis' definition: “patterns of deviation in judgment that occur in particular situations.”
- "glitches in our brains -> cause us to doubt/ignore vast array of possibilities/decisions/opportunities
• Confirmation bias: unconscious act of only referencing perspectives that fuel our preexisting views, while simultaneously closing our minds to opposing view points and ideas.
• In-group bias: causes us to overestimate abilities & value of our immediate group at the expense of people we don’t really know.
• Negativity bias: the human tendency to focus on bad news or the “negatives” in a situation
• Anchoring effect: predilection for relying too heavily on 1 piece of info when making decisions.
Cornucopians
Thomas Robert Malthus - Malthusians
food production expands linearly while population growth expands exponentially
- believe the rate of technological growth will outpace the rate of population growth
- limitless abundance of resources due to technology - regardless of population size
Abundance - Peter Diamandis
-exponetial (population) - growth increases at an expanding rate
-linear (food production) - growth increases at the same rate