Ethiopia - A Diplomatic Supremo in Africa:

A Diplomatic Supremo in Africa:

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Public Lecture - Respublica Literaria Addis Abeba, CCIII, MMXVI

Costantinos Berhutesfa Costantinos, PhD

Professor of Public Policy, School of Graduate Studies, AAU & Chairman EITCo

International Relations (IR) an inter-disciplinary subject syndicating martial & political science, public diplomacy, economics, finance, history and now asymmetric conflicts, is becoming ever more important as the world becomes more globalized and a religious armaggedon. Various theories have been propounded to explain IR.

• Political realism is a state-centric thought, as global governance is anarchic;
• Neorealism or structural realism: the effect of structure (the anarchic international system and the distribution of capabilities across units) explains state behaviour;
• Idealism or Utopianism is a school of thought that holds a state should make its internal political philosophy the goal of its foreign policy
• Liberalism: state preferences, rather than state capabilities, are the primary determinant of state behaviour, through co-operation and interdependence, peace can be achieved.
• Democratic peace theory: liberal democracies can never have conflicts among themselves;
• Complex interdependence: states are coherent units and are the dominant actors in IR; force is a usable and effective instrument of policy and hierarchy in international politics;
• Post-liberal theory: the modern, globalized world, states are driven to cooperate in order to ensure security and sovereign interests;
• Constructivism or social constructivism: international politics is shaped by persuasive ideas, collective values, culture and social identities and international reality is socially constructed by cognitive structures, which give meaning to the material world.

Ethiopia's Foreign & National Security Policy, Principles for Defense, Economic & Social Objectives of the nation are engrained in the Constitution

Regional Integration has been on the African agenda for a long time now

• Africa: NEPAD adopted by the UNGA, 1997
• Bilateral initiatives such as US AGOA, the TICAD…
• EU/ACP Lomè convention
• Arusha, Khartoum, Addis Ababa Declarations, the Monrovia Symposium,
• The Cairo Agenda for Action, The Abuja Treaty,
• The Lagos Plan of Action and the Final Act of Lagos,
• The World Bank’s Accelerated Development in SSA 1981,
• The World Bank’s SSA: from Crisis to Sustainable Growth (1989),
• UN Programme of Action for African Economic Recovery & Development 1986-1990,
• UNECA African Alternative to Structural Adjustment Framework,
• UN Programme of Action for the Least Developed Countries for the 1990s,
• The AU Constitutive Act

Theoretical underpinning for African Regional Integration

Analytical & methodological protocols -

how does African integration & Regional Security agenda previal?

• An advanced industrial economy must exist for trade integration;
• Contingent dynamics - the commitment of individual leader to spur the moment;
• Political Rules & Institutions in each nation must augur on integration on competitive & comparative narratives;
• Credit and Capital Markets…

African Regional Security & Integration: Civic, State and Private Sector Balance

Issues

• Regional economic integration does not happen without regional peace and security decisions related to regional security & integration and, if so, how?
• Does the state elite pre-empt, incorporate, or ban organisations in relation to decisions related to regional security & integration?
• Do international agencies accept, underwrite or oppose measures by states in relation to decisions related to regional security & integration? The International Community's position on the Nile Conundrum

Regional Security & Regional Integration Generic characteristics

• Policies, Strategies, Structures & alliances
• Organizational autonomy, capacity, complexity and cohesion;
• In combination, these determine the relative strength or weakness of a nation on regional security & integration in the political spectrum.

The Challenge

The aura surrounding the criminal negligence of regional security & integration by Global Governance agencies is unforgivable. Corruption has become endemic.

Creative new efforts need to be excreted to meet the challenges posed by poor security infrastructure. Strategies and procedures need to be developed that would ensure a higher degree of actionable political will to provide security & development infrastructure based on concrete and evaluable plan of operations

Energy Production and Export:

Ethiopia's Drive to be the power hub

of Greater Horn of Africa

As the water tower of North-east Africa,

Ethiopia offers a great deal of opportunity for cleaner energy production, which has become vital in the global environment. Ethiopia has the potential to export energy to the sub-region, hence, investing in the energy sector creates a new investment opportunity with high returns. Ethiopia has power generating capacity amounting to over 60,000MW: 45,000 MW of hydro power, 10,000 MW wind energy, and 5,000MW geothermal energy.

One of the objectives of the power sector is to make Ethiopia a green renewable energy hub for the East Africa region. The biggest dam construction is the Grand Renaissance Dam, which has a 6000 MW generating capacity followed by Gibe III, which has 1870 MW generating capacity, Tekeze hydroelectric power plant – 300MW, Gilgel Gibe II hydroelectric power plant – 420MW and Belles hydroelectric plant – 460MW. Koysha IV will provide more than 1900 MW. Ethiopia has already started exporting electricity to Djibouti & Sudan

Why infrastructure

Statement of the Problem

• In 1984, a famine began to strike Ethiopia with apocalyptic force. Westerners watched in horror as the images of death came on TV
• Ethiopia is the water tower of Africa - surface water resources flow in 12 major river basins. It is estimated that an average of 122.19 billion cubic meters of water is annually discharged from its rivers;

Understandably, Ethiopia has now launched major economic and social rehabilitation scheme to make famine history. Indeed, the economy has recently been growing at 10% and provides opportunities to self-finance development.

Infrastruture development, interpreted broadly to mean increased provision and use of services, is an integral part of enhanced economic development, i.e., advanced industrialized societies use more energy per unit of economic output and far more energy per capita than poorer societies, especially those

still in a pre-industrial state.

The fact that expanded provision and use of infrastruture is strongly associated with economic development leaves open how important it is as a causal factor in economic development. Development involves a number of other steps besides those associated with it, notably including the evolution of education and labor markets, financial institutions to support capital investment, modernization of agriculture, and provision of infrastructure for water, sanitation, and communications.

The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA)

– An Ethiopian Case Study

Vision

The strategy for sustaining rapid and broad-based growth path hinges on sustaining faster and equitable economic growth: agriculture as a major source of economic growth, industry to play key role, expansion and quality of infrastructure;

The Public Investment Strategy

• Ethiopia is on a spree of
• public investments,
• an agricultural transformation,
• a consumer goods revolution, and
• emerging export industries

that will support a rapid pace of economic expansion;

• Massive public infrastructure investments - roads, railways, power plants & transmission lines, schools and clinics

The Ethiopian Experiment in the Development of Energy Infrastructure

Hydro power

The draft master plan of electricity and energy aims to boost

• Power exports from 223 MW a year now to at least 5,000 MW.
• Ethiopia’s potential power production capacity (hydro, geothermal, wind and solar energy) is about 60,000MW, roughly half the total current installed capacity in Africa!
• Similarly, the number of power distribution lines across the country increased from 25,000 km in 2005 to 126,038 km in 2010, the length of distribution lines is expected to increase from 126,038 km to 258,038 kms.

Name Capacity Commissioning Basin Cost

Koka 42 MW 1960 Awash River

Awash II 36 MW 1966 Awash River

Awash III 36 MW 1971 Awash River

Fincha 134 MW 1973 Fincha (Blue Nile)

Gilgel Gibe I 180 MW 2004 Gilgel Gibe River $331 million

Tekeze 300 MW 2009 Tekeze (Atbara) $365 million

Belles 460 MW 2010 Lake Tana (Blue Nile) $420 million

Gilgel Gibe II 420 MW 2010 Omo River € 370 million

Gilgel Gibe III 1870 MW 2015 Omo River € 1.55 billion

Fincha Amerti Nesse 100 MW 2012 Fincha (Blue Nile) $276 million

Halele Worabese 440 MW 2014 Omo River €470 million

Gilgel Gibe IV 2000 MW 2018 Omo River $1.9 billion

Chemoga Yeda 278 MW 2013 Blue Nile, Markos $555 million

Genale Dawa III 256 MW 2009 Oromo and Somali $408 million

GERD 6000 MW 2018 Blue Nile River € 4.8 billion

Table 1 – Total energy production in hydro dams in Ethiopia

Wind power

There have been several efforts to harness wind power in the past decade. Mekelle & Adama wind farms are operational. The major one is the Aysha Wind Farm. Aysha Wind Power 47km to Ethio-Djibouti border and 170km from Dire Dawa town on the way to Djibouti route. Aysha Wind has 300MW wind turbines to be constructed in two phases.

Project Capacity MW GMW Commission

• Tendaho 100 700.8
• Corbetti 75 525.6
• Abaya 100 700.8 2018
• Tulu Moya 40 280.32
• Dofan 60 420.32

Solar Power

Energy Export

Currently, Ethiopia provides 100 megawatts electricity to Sudan and up to 50 megawatts to Djibouti. As part of a $22bn AU project to develop a pan-continental electricity highway by 2020, Ethiopia plans to increase its power exports to Djibouti, Kenya and Sudan, and establish grid links to South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Tanzania, Somalia and Yemen.

Regional Security in the Greater Horn of Africa

the Greater Horn of Africa (the greater Horn), a diversity of geography, history, population, politics, and culture that has made the region so prone to conflict within its societies and between its countries that people pluck what they wish from that variety to generalize. Those differences have allowed outsiders to play proxy politics with the region that has been at an historical crossroads (Rondos, 2016).

Along its eastern coast, it gives on to the Red Sea, the

Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean, its people engaged in trade for millennia, linking to the Gulf and beyond.

Nevertheless, the greater Horn straddles a

geographical space of such strategic import-

ance that those who treat it with indifference

pay a price for their neglect, whilst those who

try to manipulate it get their fingers burnt.

The Horn comprising of Djibouti, Eritrea,

Ethiopia & Somalia has attracted once again

the attention of greater powers” (Rondos, 2016).

“The GCC have contracted Eritrea’s government for assistance in the War on Yemen, using the East African state as a transit and logistics base for their operations, as well as 400 of its troops for cannon fodder in Aden. Add to it Qatar (a peninsular pipsqueak uses its financial largesse to flex power)"... (Korybko, 2015:1)

Ethiopia sits at the centre of a martial cauldron. Devastated by civil war, the test for Somalia is to interlace a united state out of a collapsed nation, torn into pieces. To the west lies Sudan, a power that espoused Sha’ria rule sustains conflicts in the Blue Nile, Kordofan, Abey and Darfur and South Sudan’s civil war. To the north lies Eritrea, isolated and subject to international sanctions, it is accused of gross rights violations (Rondos, 2016).

Is the GCC’s move into the greater Horn predicated on silencing Shite ‘rebels’? Is the GCC incursion onto one of the most contested regions (The Horn’s pariah states) as a staging point or is there a veiled schema that may embolden the irredentist agenda of the pariah state and Al Shabaab in Somalia? (Ibid, Korybko)

The Horn of Africa is one of the most geostrategic regions in

the world due to its location along the Bab el Mandeb strait that connects the Gulf of Aden with the Red Sea. It is one of two maritime choke points (the other being the Suez Canals) that link Europe with South, Southeast, and East Asia. All sea bound trade between Europe and Eurasia must transit through its narrow passage. As could be expected, this makes control over the strait a heightened prize for any power or combination thereof, and it is not for naught that most Great Powers scrambled their navies to the region ostensibly to combat piracy (Korybko, 2015).

Historically, Abyssinia (Ethiopia) has been the target of attack for religious and territorial gain reasons.

• Dervish, Mahadists and Italian invaders have challenged Ethiopia’s Emperors Yohannes and Menelique. The Greater Somalia project of Ziad Barre had challenged Ethiopia several times.
• Egypt under the rule of the Ottoman Empire, led by Isma'il Pasha, the Khedive of Egypt, who became the ruler of Egypt in 1863, sought to expand his reign to the land of Abyssinia and control the Blue Nile. The armies of Yohannes and Isma'il met at Gundat on 16 Nov 1875.
• The Ottomans were destroyed. News of this huge defeat was suppressed in Egypt - it would undermine the Khedive. They tried again to invade from the north, but were again defeated at Guræ in March 1876.
• Italy: On 7th Dec 1895, Ethiopia gained her victory at Amba Alage & Mequelle on 21 Jan 1986 and at Adwa on 1st of March 1896 against Italian invaders (Berkeley, 1902 in Gebresellasie, 2006).

Rapid Development Can it be sustained?

The most important geopolitical outcome of the Yemen intervention has been Eritrea, which has capitalized on the war to escape severe political and economic isolation (Rondos, 2016). He identifies three major challenges that confront the Horn region.

• How do states manage to win over their population to a national project—therein lies the vital distinction between persuasion and coercion. Discontent creates loyalties that are easily exploited within or by outsiders.
• It is a region of porous frontiers. They become proxy link between internal politics and external security scenarios.
• The Horn has been an easy playground for actors outside the region. Poor governance, mutual destabilization & external intervention are the combustible ingredients of a region always hovering on the edges of insecurity.

Ethiopia's Role in Africa

• Historically supporting African liberation efforts;
• Unifying African common positions;
• African peace keeper & enforcer;
• Leading integration in the Horn;

Mohammed (2015) asserts,

“Conflict in its very nature disrupts peace and tranquility in this overly intertwined world, whose spill over effect counts a lot as success of a given state is directly related to peace, amity and stability in its neighbors. There were and are zealous critics that always tend to consider Ethiopia's diplomatic engagement in neighboring countries either as farcical or having an interventionist mentality"

“Nonetheless, after the demise of the Dergue, what miracle on earth happened for Ethiopia to emerge as a strong, thriving nation whereas Somalia; as a failed state? The bottom line is that, Ethiopia healing from those scars of the Dergue hugely engaged itself in building strong institutions, which in turn helped in consolidating power. The role of individuals and shady elite interests were curbed and everyday life channeled through predetermined rules and procedures. Accountability established in the system to rectify misdeeds" Mohammed (2015) .

“The success of Ethiopia is directly correlated to peace and stability in its neighboring states. Its engagement in bringing law and order in those countries is driven by the desire and only the desire to bring about peace, stability and development to the conflict torn and prone sub-region: not the mediocre thinking of mere 'expansionism' as some declare. Otherwise, the logic of the 'sinking ship and its crew' will hold true to the Somalia and South Sudan people and the sub-region at large" Mohammed (2015) .

Ethiopia, as the Foreign & Natnal Security Policy sates, is determined for good relations among neighboring states. Sustenance of its growth and development cannot be secured if neighboring states are at war, persistent violence & instability.

The Western media brands Africa as a poverty & conflict basket case. What started with rogue military regimes is still a stigma that prevails in the foreign media.

Nevertheless, it is not so much a problem of character defect or ethical failure. It is ignorance arising from decontextualizing and dehistoricizing social phenomena based on false analogies and comparisons - the separation of meaning from social context, behavior from cultural milieu and action from social structures.

Branding &

Scenario Planning:

Citizens must believe in the brand before the world can!

Branding in this case is a field of theory and practice aiming to measure, build and manage reputation of

Africa

Branding:

Clear Peace & Security Strategy on the Horn & the 'GCC venture'

Indeed, the GCC would stipulate that Ethiopia would act pre-emptively & decisively to stop such a development out of its defense of its national interests.

• Hence, the GCC would not want to put Eritrea in any sort of danger at the moment, likely explaining why they did not allow Eritrea to join (although it likely would have, if offered).
• Notwithstanding the humiliating defeat of the Egyptian forces in the 60’s & 70’s in Yemen, the GCC still places importance on the Eritrean facility’s use as a staging point to the 'War on Yemen'.
• Conversely, an alternative but complementary possibility is, if it is realized that Eritrea would join the alliance, it would spark a formal continuation of the war and thus, instead wagered against it out of self-preservation.

A renewed focus

Against this background and

with the intention of easing the trepidation on the people of Eritrea, the Ethiopian foreign policy must articulate a concrete strategy to end the stalemate and forge good relations between the two historically 'ONE' people of these nations. If this is not possible, strategies must be developed by foreign policy wonks to provide

the Ethiopian government with options and scenarios on

the way forward.

Meritocratic diplomatic assignments:

A skilled and committed state, civic, diplomatic and martial leadership can mitigate conditions that are hostile to a regional pluralist society and elements that compromise the economy of the region.

A need for a Policy on Investment & Loans:

“If China’s courtship of Africa had been formalized in marriage, then the bride might be developing early symptoms of the seven-year itch. In parallel, a more vigorous debate has begun about the nature of African ties with China, specifically how beneficial these will prove in years to come"

(Wallis & Burgis, 2010)

From the outset, the fiercest critics of China’s advance into Africa have been in the West. China-bashers see in Beijing’s mercantile expansion the same exploitative patterns that typified Africa’s colonial past relations with Europe. They worry too that Beijing’s engagement is undermining western proselytizing of democracy and letting 'murderous leaders' off the hook, just as governance in Africa was beginning to improve (Ibid).

However, there has always been a strong whiff of hypocrisy about this argument. Chinese officials are also critical of the West’s record and vigorous in their own defence. "Western countries should set an example by making public the resources they have plundered from & grabbed in Africa in the past 400 years. Only after that can we come to the issue of China’s transparency" (Li Ruogu, President of the Ex-Im Bank of China).

• In addition to the existing threats clearly, the outcome of peace and security scenarios in Eritrea, Sudan and Southern Sudan crisis and foreign support to terrorism in the Horn will have an impact on Ethiopia's economic progress.
• The effort requires careful attention to the distinctive agendas, interests and concepts that determine the domain of military and para-military activities and also the framework of political thought, discourse and action through which regional contestants translate these specific organizational elements into a broader pattern of ideas and apply them generally to the security of the Ethiopian state.
• For this Ethiopia needs seasoned diplomats & martial preparedness to win the hearts & minds of the region's populace.

Diplomacy in a Digital Era

In this world of instantaneous big data and social media where heads of state proclaim positions on international matters without even telling their embassies, old-style diplomats struggle to sustain their relevance. Hence, while Ethiopia’s diplomatic missions still make the bulwark of international affairs, fundamental change needed include the use of revolution in information technology, piggy bagging the proliferation of new media, comprehending globalization of business and finance, widening participation of the public in international relations and complex issues that transcend national boundaries.

Scenario planning

Scenario planning is a strategic tool to make flexible long-term plans, a process of visualizing what future conditions or events are probable, their consequences or effects and how to respond to or benefit from them. There are three scenarios of state building:

• legitimacy and accountability of states through democratic governance by holding elections and constitutional processes,
• economic liberalization, and
• strengthening states to fulfill core functions of an effective state.

Lee Kuan Yew, (Singapore) brought political stability, which together with rule of law, were essential for economic progress, thereby creating an Asian Tiger, meritocratic state, transforming it from the third world to the first world in a single generation (Erdmann, 2015).

Epilogue

Ethiopia’s FNSP has definitely guided the nation for a quarter of a century with little or no hiccups.

• The support provided by Ethiopia to Somalia in setting up the TFG and eventually the government is a classic case of good diplomacy.
• The negotiations over South Sudan Civil War have been led by Ethiopia’s former foreign minister
• Addis Ababa, as the diplomatic and political of Africa had had its share of contribution to peace and security.
• Ethiopia’s leadership of IGAD and NEPAD has also bought significant dividends to the sub-region and the continent.

Ethiopia's Security is the most formidable in the Region

• Over the past five years, Kenya, Uganda, Djibouti and Somaliland have all been attacked by Somalia-based Al-Shabaab militants.
• Al-Shabaab’s high profile attack in Kenya's Westgate mall and Garissa University is a case in pont in a nation that has seen little turmoil during the cold war
• Ethiopia has evaded a large-scale attack.
• The country's secret to preventing attacks is public involvement.
• Ethiopia’s military is considered among the strongest in the region.
• Ethiopia knows its threats to security from Eritrea, Somalia and South Sudan and internal dissent from the Ogaden.
• To that effect, Ethiopia has managed to build its security network very strongly. Its forces continue to fight al-Shabaab in conjunction with AU troops, making significant gains against a militant group that remains a security threat to the region (Wolf, 2015).

While FNSP is a success, Ethiopia needs to periodically review it with the challenge items that have been listed earlier. These include the migration of the policy into the 21st century digital age and clear strategies for the Greater Horn's eminent challenges facing it today.

The Red Sea has forged a shift in alliances with Yemen as an epicenter of a religious Armageddon. Winning the hearts and minds of the people will steer a delicate path away from caprices of clientelism. Winning the hearts and minds is perhaps the greatest source of power, far outstripping the cash, weapons systems, or institutional authority on which the so-called “powerful” rely. It perpetuates unity of purpose, kinship, fastens families and communities together, heals wounds, motivates the youth and exalts humanity.

Global Security

Citizen’s Protest Alliances & 21st Century Threats to Peace - Book Vol. IV

Thank you

Eritrea

Maghreb

Djibouti/Yemen

Egypt

Sudan

Somalia

SS

ECCAS

DRC

EAC

upcoming

Boiling Spots

Priming International Relations Policy & Practice on

Regional Integration, Peace & Security

Partial view of a mural depicting founding fathers of the African Union in the Africa Hall built, by Ethiopia's Emperor. His Imperial Majesty Haile Sellasse I

Hard & Soft infrastructure

• Hard infrastructure refers to the large physical networks for an industrial nation (roads, rail, waterways, telecom...);
• Soft infrastructure refers to all the institutions (economic, education, health, cultural and social standards);

A nation does well if state machinery and resilient institutions are put in place. Here, it is pertinent to make historical comparison on Ethiopia and Somalia in the early 1990's. Ethiopia by that time was hell to dwell during the Dergue regime. In Somalia, the regime was already fractured. It could not provide the requisite peace, stability and necessities for its citizens (Mohammed, A 2015) .

Conclusion

Ethiopia: Pragmatic snapshots of a nation's Foreign & Security policy in the Horn

sub region

The Founding Fathers of African Unity

Geothermal power

Ethiopian Peacekeepers under The United Nations & African Union

Volume I

Conflict encirclement could move resources from development to war, compromising Ethiopia's Economic Progress

Way Forward

After the revelation came out

that Eritrea had acquiesced to the

GCC, Ethiopia firmly declared that it would not tolerate the facility being used for any aggressive designs.

At the moment, it’s widely thought that a type of no-conflict-no-peace parity existed between Ethiopia & Eritrea that has kept the conventional (but not asymmetrical) peace since their mutually disastrous war

of 1998-2000.

Nevertheless, the GCC base

could theoretically tip the balance. Understanding the enormity of the threat that could be facing it, Ethiopia should signal to its Gulf counterparts (especially in this case GCC and anti-terrorist coalition lead, Saudi Arabia) that it would not tolerate the Horn's formal incorporation into any military alliance (Korybko, 2015)

costy@costantinos.net

Background music 'Tizita' by Aster Awoke