V2 Ecosystem

"Trying to imagine how AR will be used is like trying

to forecast the future of the web in 1994. The building

blocks of the technology have arrived and are starting to

become widely available. Now it is up to programmers

and users to decide how to use them.

Economist: Technology Quarterly , 9/5/09.

Cloud of Keyterms

Driving Forces

Social

Political

Economic

Technology

Accessibility:

• Measures the ease and frequency of AR applications
• Considers price of access
• Inegration between diverse tech. platforms
• Interdisciplinary exchange
• Role of the artist

Eco System of Augmented Reality

This world is V2’s point of departure. V2 is at risk of isolation in this world: Society now is elsewhere, as is society in a world predicted and desired by V2. In this world, both impact and technological accessibility are low. In V2’s own words people are “spectators”here, like bunnies against the backyard of art. It’s a “layar fantasy”, “extreme niche”, “plastic surgery”world with “accessibility pretence”, “constant tagging” as well as “schizophrenic fragmentation and experimentalism”.

Analysis

This scenario creates a situation that resembles the idom 'best kept secret.' Being both niche and technologically invites the creative/artistic specialist “nerd” and secret R&D departments are tinkering away at AR applications for expensive, specialized uses that might pave the way for the kind of oligarchy predicted in the world of Augmented Public Space (see right. Only a few artists have the know-how and means to create, relying on subsidies and a small circle of consituent parts. What is more, their know-how does not necessarily get reflected or influences wider commercial / public impact applications.

Although the quantity of AR being produced is small the expensive development costs remove the presence of 'junk apps.' In this world there is only time for quality and / or life changing technology. The medical field, new energy, military and national social / cultural projects operate here. Exhibitions hosted by V2 forecast things to come, often more idealist than practical; nice-to- have versus need-to-have. Since mass audiences and DIY’ers are not empowered here public response to AR is unpredictable, possibly ranging from awe to suspicion or even resentment.

V2 Futures

V2 does not need to leave this world entirely (because it can continue to act as a viable seedbed and source of pioneering) but should see it as a point of departure for a journey beyond this point. Once one or more workable travel routes have been established, journeys might repeatedly start here time and again. But V2 should not invest and spend the majority of its resources in this world or else there is no fuel left to travel with. Initially, in terms of strategy, this world can be viewed as the original beehive from which the bees swarm out to specific new points where other beehives can be built. In a future scenario there could be conscious flight routes between different beehives.

This is the world V2 wishes to avoid. Its better features (connected to high impact) are present in another world which V2 wants to inhabit (ARchitect; see below) but its negative elements V2 rejects. The reason for this can be expressed by pointing to the fact that everything in this world is made “for the inside”. For example, AR becomes like watching TV: Everyone can do it but only a few determine what can be watched. In this world, medicine models the body’s veins in great detail. Where humans are concerned those controlling accessibility might model peoples’ thoughts and action even while convincing them that that “AR brings the situation to the place where the debate is happening”. The technology is difficult to realise which is why this capacity lies in the hands of some oligarchic few. These oligarchies might be formed by commercial companies or governments, or a combination of both.

On the surface this might strengthen the political process as cities, governments, commercial companies and perhaps resulting communities create AR environments that generate new local-global links. For example, political forums can be immersed in real time events and space shifting can easily take the form of connecting people in real time anywhere in the world (a cafe in Rotterdam showing street views from Singapore to Glasgow). Next to the political realm, sustainability could become a popular focus in this scenario. AR enhances public works and drives a new digital public space that brings the world closer together.

The role of the ARtist and the AR user is ambigous in this world. On the one hand participation is potentially very high. Since there is high public interest in AR artists might be offered many opportunities for aRt& D. Similarly users might be capable to get involved via many AR mediated platforms. However the agenda, nature of the platforms and purposes / goals of aRt&D and pro-usership are likely set, shaped and defined by non-aRTists and users. Therefore the quality and exact nature of political, environmental and creative participation is at least questionable, at best problematic.

V2 futures

V2 is not attracted to this AR world scenario. V2 neither thinks that society will actually move into this future, nor does it think V2 will realistically develop into this future. V2 also does not wish to be a player in this possible future world.

V2 should therefore consciously avoid contact or travel into this world. In terms of its own image coherence and position in the ecosystem V2 should look for signposts of developments that go in this world direction and consistently reject or problematise such movement; i.e. by not engaging in projects it deems to be part of this world; or by exploring only the elements it likes about this world (high impact) which in turn then moves it into the ARchitect world. This can also be achieved by deliberately starting conversations and debates about the pitfalls of this world.

The world of ARchitects is V2’s desired destination point, both in terms of society and in terms of V2’s position in this ecosystem. The desire for this world also contains elements of the Customised World which borders it (see below). In this world V2 says “even a baby can use AR”. AR applications are “almost public”; “even junkies and homeless have their worlds augmented”. AR affects “really, really everybody” and thus AR becomes almost PR for a Mad Max World in which people leave the tunnel, leave the world and “see all these new things”.

An apocaliptical AR Warrior Door generates energy for the sake of transparancy through integration. You don’t even have to think about accessibility anymore.This world could be sustainable. Technological accessibility and applications move away from handheld devices making AR “more visible in your world rather than only in your phone”.

Analysis

Technology has become affordable and integratebale across platforms, brands, applications, public service announcements, and cultures making AR part of our daily activities; becoming second nature like checking email is today. Practicality and commercialty are high but may inhibit fine artistic expression in this scenario. V2 will have to choise when it is a mainstream test bed for aRt&D or brand itself as a champion of fine art.Ironically, now that funding from both commercial and governmental sources are aboundent artistic expression is geared toward mass apeal but there is scope for artists to insist on being part of the conversation etc.

Depending on V2's position, collaborations may move closer towards the creative industries and design. ARt&D can become a business standard.In the ARchitect scenario citizens have the power to augment their own reality and not only be part of a passive expereince generated by a brand campaign or public announcement. The artist, and therfore V2, might find this new social expereiment fertile ground for commenting society rather than showcasing technological possibility.

V2 Futures

V2 believe that society has already started to enter this world; notably, on the point of high impact / low technological access. V2 predicst society will realistically level at a future point of high impact (no particular change) to slightly higher technological accessibility. There is agreement among V2 that this is not the ideal or most desirable future point oucome for society. There is less agreement on where the ideal societal future point should be: V2 maps a field of ideal society’s future which ranges across two worlds (Customised & ARchitect). At one of these points V2 desires to see society move to a point of middle impact to high technological accessibility which markedly differs from where it sees society move realistically. On the other point V2 maps ideal future society at the lower middle impact / middle technological accessibility combination. This creates a narrow-ish field of ideal societal AR development in relation to all four worlds. Despite the field of uncertainty there is an overall high agreement that society should ideally not inhabit the two worlds of Frankenstein / Augmented Public Space.

Interstingly V2 positions itself currently in one of the worlds it rejects as a desired future societal future (Frankenstein; see more left).

This world is V2’s sister-favourite next to its bordering ARchitect world (see right). Elements from this world are considered vital to points on the V2 travel route towards ARchitect world. Another beehive should be established here. This world is a necessary route point towards – and within – the ideal / realist destinations in ARchitect world.

This world draws on V2’s current and future expertise. Direct lines lead from V2’s current departure point to various F’s in this world. It’s about “individual dreams”, “creating your own experience” and “fulfilling fantasies”. In this way, V2 views parts of this world as empowering to the user and producer. However, even though AR in this world becomes as normalised as is today’s laptop “you need to know how to use it”. Sharing becomes a “maybe”. Not everyone is involved, just like it is “easy to paint on yourself yet not everyone does it”.

Analysis

The artistic impact of AR applications are niche up to a high level of personalization in technology. -Open source software and DIY technology allow for fine-tuning and customization. -Society is more tribal than mass and frequent new releases in AR applications create a hyped atmosphere. -In this scenario the individual is important. -AR that expresses personal visions and tribal dreams flourish. For V2, this means that audiences are smaller but more enthusiastic. An ideal world for fine artistic expression whose impact, however, is severely limited including sustainable business models for production, distribution, use and recognition. Reliance on subsidised funding is likely high, and due to a lack of muscle in the more “real society realm” commercial interest is low. In terms of commercial application, aRt&D finds itself working for unique, one-off projects. Although the right fit makes AR development exciting its niche-ness makes it expensive, without a mass market AR remains elitist or with tribal techies.

Although AR is niche, its technological accessibility emerges in body tags and wearable fashion. Localities and communities have their own insights as will departments within larger corporations. Culture has a greater opportunity to express itself via AR. It is a challenge to find an integrated platform that can access the plethera of customized applications. As a result, regulators’ interest and involvement remains low which means TRUST , OPACITY and INCLUSION continue to be problems in this world.

V2 Futures

Because it draws on current strengths and the diversity of dreams within V2 this world fulfills two important functions: (1) being a frequently visited beehive next to the remaining original beehive in the Frankenstein world and the third beehive in the ARchitect world; with cross pollination across each of the three. (2), being a point of empowerment for creating a beehive in the ARchitect world. Specifically, projects chosen here, conversations started and discourses shaped from here can help achieve the strategy underlying paths 1 and 2 or a hybrid of both.

• V2 then has the choice of various (or a combination thereof) strategy paths to move themselves, and societal developments, closer to their perceived ideals for AR in society, and for their own role in the ecosystem.

• Strategy path 1 is to move from closer to B and impacting on C by moving it closer to D1 or D2. This would constitue a realistic strategy path that explicitly aims to influence and change the future development path of AR in society

• Strategy path 2 would be to move directly from A towards D1 and D2, thus “ignoring” the current position and predicted future position of B/C and in the process approximating E closer to D1 and D2. There are a number of F’s in the catchment radius of this path.

• Portal considers the choice of which path to take mainly a choice that will affect brand perception (image coherence) and the types of conversations that will be started and activities carried out by V2. Image coherence will likely be higher for the artist niche in the ecosystem in choosing path 2 while collaboration with funding and commercial entities will be made more difficult; and vice versa for path 1.

• A combination of both- in other words, extending activities across paths 1 and 2 – will increase the likelihood of impacting societies and artsists’ roles in AR. It will also cost more human, planning and financial resources; will need more widely targeted network activities and will require careful niche brand acitivities.

A strategy could be to secure funding for a combined hybrid strategy of paths 1 and 2 and thus make the ecosystem positioning one where V2 is the player who tries to engage both ideal and realistic aRt & D and societal scenarios.

PortalToYourDreams

Art

professional community

SCENARIOS

?

Ecosystem

AR

AR

I+/A+

chitect

I-/A+ Customized

?

V2

?

STRATEGY

Public Space

V2 Future

Society Ideal

Society future

Society Ideal

Society now

V2 now

2

I+/A- Augmented Public Space

I-/A- Frankenstein

1

Step 1

Social

• Accessibility
• Artists
• Prosumer
• Connectivity
• Group Interaction
• Transparency
• Interdisciplinary

Political

• Regulation
• Privacy
• Transparency
• aRt&D

Economic

• Commercial Application
• Investment
• aRt&D
• Interdisciplinary
• Impact

Technological

• Accessibility
• Mixed Reality
• Integration

Choose the

Driving Forces

Choose an Axis based on the Driving Forces

++

-+

Name the Scenarios:

Use the power of pictures and

concepts to create a collective

metaphor.

Using Images:

• Find Links
• Deepen the Dialogue
• Inspire

--

+-

Inhabit the Worlds:

• Collective metaphor
• A positioning model allows you to navigate and identify trends.
• Strategy= ideal versus actual, where am I now and where do we want to go? What will it take to get there?

Step 2

Define the Axis

Impact:

• reach (no of people)
• experiential quality
• depth
• exposure
• mass / niche
• mass produced/unique object
• revenue through exposure
• cool factor/controversial

Step 5

Step 3

Step 4

PortalToYourDreams

• Follow up on Strategy
• Proposal for November