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The Central Role of Resource Policy for Mongolian Development in the Past and Coming 10 Years
Transcript
Politics revolves around mining policy
And one more thing...
The Central Role of Resource Policy for Mongolian Development in the Past and Coming Ten Years
Julian Dierkes
Institute of Asian Research
University of British Columbia
Scenarios
1990s Democratization
- party rivalry
- (re)establishment of democratic institutions
2000s Oyu Tolgoi
- patronage emerges as governing political principle
- populism and lack of party policy profile lead to coalition to avoid blame
- disenchatment with 1990s foreign "advice" leads to meandering policy-making and glaring caps in policy-making capacity
Dream
- new generation of leaders
- political capacity
- inequality avoided
Fear
- massive inequalities
- resource nationalism
The mining boom...
- crowds out other topics in political discourse and decision-making
- requires vast social resources to manage
- is altering social relations
- is fundamental to Mongolian development in the coming decades
Reality
- muddling through
- Ulaanbaatar grows
- threat of social mobilization
The Coming Mining Boom
- potential for social mobilization in Ulaanbaatar
- coming focus of political debates
Social Inequality
Mobile Pastoralism/Urbanization/Demography
- "nomad" as dominant imagined identity
- the lure of gold: ninjas, cash, urban professionals, study and work abroad
- from subsistence to cash
- decrease in pastoral mobility
- from a sparsely, but evenly populated country to population centres
- investments in human capital
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