Open Sourcing the Living Building Challenge

The study finds that builders and remodelers in both the single-family and multifamily sectors report the market is recognizing the value of green: 73 percent of single-family builders (up from 61 percent since the last report) and 68 percent of multifamily builders say consumers will pay more for green homes.

In 2005, when the housing market was a robust $315 billion, the green share was a scant $6 billion—or about 2 percent of the overall dollars.

https://www.probuilder.com/green-homes-rapidly-grabbing-new-construction-market-share

Market Size

At least one third of single family and multifamily builders who were surveyed said that green building is a significant portion of their overall activity (more than 60 percent of their portfolio). By 2022, this number should increase to nearly one half in both the single family and multifamily sectors. Within this group, nearly 30 percent of multifamily builders fall into the category of “dedicated” green builders (more than 90 percent of their portfolio). On the single family side, the percentage of “dedicated” green builders is nearly 20 percent, but that share is expected to grow sizably by 2022.

https://www.nahb.org/en/news-and-publications/press-releases/2017/09/study-finds-green-home-building-continues-to-gain-traction.aspx

Business Model

Worldwide residential

construction market

$4.2 trillion

in 2017

1

Total available market

A 2008 report from McGraw Hill Construction, “The Green Outlook: Trends Driving Change,” notes that the size of the national green building market has expanded five-fold over the last three years, and is projected to triple again in the next five years, reaching $96-$140 billion.

- https://www.green-technology.org/greentech-report-june09r.pdf

Eco/green conscious home-buyers

Addressable market

Subdivide 1098 and 1099 Santa Margarita Dr. such that four additional cottages can be built between the two properties. Pro forma financials at this early conceptual design stage are as follows.

Number of houses: 4

Resale value: $150k-$250k = b/t $600k and $1mm in revenue

Cost of Goods Sold: $30k-$45k each in materials = $140k + $30k Architect + $30k Structural Engineer + $15k construction labor and subcontractors = $215k COGS

Gross profit: revenue - cost of goods sold = $385k - $785k gross profit

Property development costs (subdividing parcels, re-zoning, permits etc.): est. $100k subdividing parcels, $30k ea. for permits, ~$220k total. These would be the main operating costs.

Gross profit - Operating costs = operating profit = $165k - $565k

Operating profit - tax expenses (40%) = net profit = $99k - $339k

ROI = (return - cost)/cost = between 20% and 50%

$36 billion in CA

(as of 2013)

OS LBC homes

$500M

Market share

=1.4% of

Market Validation

There seems to be relatively little to be honest. There are only a handful of realtors marketing themselves as "green" and normal realtors report rarely being about green homes. There seem to be few green homes on the market

That said, there are 41,978 members of Facebook group "Tiny House People"

and

5,703 members of the San Diego conscious housing Facebook group

If the price can be brought down to <$50/sq foot and the legal obstacles can be overcome, there may be significant market demand

Market Adoption

Solution

We are setting out to open source what seems to be the most rigorous sustainable housing criteria in the world.

Product

Honestly, I'm not sure. I could use some help here

In practice this means putting the following online under a Creative Commons CC-BY-SA license:

• CAD designs
• Construction documents
• Details of regulatory and permitting process
• Bill of materials/sourcing information
• Instructional videos
• Owner's manual
• etc.

>

Heat Recovery Ventilator or mini-split heat pump as supplemental source

• Apis Cor printed Hempcrete walls inoculated with Bacillus (sequester CO2)
• Earthen berms for insulation
• Passive solar heating
• Passive cooling
• Rainwater capture
• Solar Photovoltaic & solar thermal hot water
• Green roof
• Automated windows

• Rocket mass heater (LBC says no combustion)
• Greywater capture and reuse (regulatory issues)
• Composting toilet (regulatory issues)

Problem

• Interior and exterior earthen plaster
• clay and cork floors

• Basic life support systems of the planet breaking down (i.e. deep ocean upwelling)
• Lack of affordable housing
• Homelessness
• Huge environmental costs of conventional construction methods
• Refugee crises
• Unhealthy conventional homes (i.e. VOCs, mold, lack of daylight and fresh air)

Expensive

Competition

“Since 2005, the green share of new single family residential construction has grown dramatically—increasing from 2 percent in 2005 to 23 percent in 2013. This 23 percent market share equates to a $36 billion market opportunity,” according to a study on green labels in the California housing market.: https://issuu.com/nilskok/docs/kk_green_homes_071912/1

#1

Affordable

Greenwashing

Competitive Advantages

- 3D printed, natural materials

Design intent

Authentic

(for what will hopefully be the first of many Open Source LBC houses)

#2

Regenerative

"The idea is to try to give all the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another."

- Richard P. Feynman

- Food, fuel, water

Affordable

#3

For the house to blend into the landscape, use extremely local materials (such as dirt from the site to create earthen berms), and use passive, low-cost, appropriate technology wherever possible.

Resilient

- Fire, drought, hurricane

Of course we also want the home to be net energy and water positive, enhance the biodiversity of its surroundings, build soil, sequester carbon, and look more and more beautiful each day of its life. All while being affordable to the average person.

https://www.usgbc.org/articles/benefits-green-homebuilding

Open Sourcing the Living Building Challenge

1. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-global-market-for-residential-building-construction-totaled-41713-billion-in-2017-and-is-estimated-to-reach-68009-billion-by-2022-growing-at-a-compound-annual-growth-rate-cagr-of-103-during-2017-2022-300604262.html