MSP in Norway and globally, NOAA Webinar

Marine Spatial Planning – experiences from Norway and future global developments

By: Erik Olsen

Institute of Marine Research, Norway

erikjsolsen

Webpage: erikjsolsen.github.io

eriko@imr.no

erik.olsen@noaa.gov

Global developments

Norwegian Integrated Mangement Plans

Ecosystem Based Management and MSP:

Seeing the whole picture

Norway

Organization

Development

Global MSP by country (EEZ)

The (neglected) human dimension

Scientific

Barents sea

Tools for Evaluation and Research

Norwegian sea

• Governance
• Cultural and historical context
• Socio-economy
• Trade-offs

• EU FP7 proj: Monitoring and Evaluation of Spatially Managed Areas (MESMA)
• Guidance: mapping, assessment, objectives & indicators
• Tools: cumulative impacts, human pressures

An "Ocean state"

• Sea: 2,3 million km2

• Land: 385 000 km2

• Main exports: Petroleum, aquaculture and fisheries

Foreign policy:

• Dependent on international law and agreements

Spatial dimesion!

Stelzenmüller et al. 2013. Marine Policy 37:149 - 164

• Expert opinion alone is unreliable & inefficient
• Need quantitative tools & methods
• More Ecological knowledge (processes & trophic links)
• Indicator development
• Climate change
• IPPC work is pushing ecology towards global models, tools and assessments

Olsen et al. 2007. ICES JMS

North Sea

Lofoten - Norway

Polders - Holland

Communication

Integration

(at the round table)

Integrated assessment

Zoning:

Shipping lanes and petroleum areas

Baselining the system

Guidelines & advice for implementation

Threats to species & habitats

Eutrophication

Focus on the increased or decreased effects?

• Adjusting form and volume to the audience (e.g. vs.scientists, public or decision-makers)
• Complexity: simplify
• Uncertainty: higlight
• Risk

Human use of the areas

Overfishing

Toxins

Spawning areas

Before

shipping

lanes

Radioactivity

Marine

litter

Traditional management has been sectoral, loosing sight of the whole ecosystem

Offshore petroleum

Climatechange & OA

Valuable

Areas

Barents

Sea

Von Quillfeldt et al 2009

Coming SOON!

Oct. 9th

As an article in PlosOne

Noise

Alien species

Serious Game:

Marine Spatial Planning Challenge 2050

Petroleum

Free Areas

After

shipping

lanes

Ecosystem-based management and MSP

Ehler & Douvere. 2009. UNESCO 10-step approach to MSP.

Expert-based process, but longing for QUANTITATIVE tools

Tools on the horizon

Next steps in MSP

GIS / Spatial tools

Modelling shipping under climate change

Spatially explicit risk assessments

• Spatial (10x10 km) and monthly assessment of biological value for the whole Norwegian EEZ for:
• Fish
• Seabirds
• Benthic nature types
• Marine Mammals

• Coupling:
• climate model ensembles projecting sea-ice distribution
• Sea transport routing (models)

Show possible likely space use by shipping in the coming 50 years

V. Stelzenmüller et al. 2010. Biological Conservation 143: 230–238

www.havmiljo.no

Smith and Stephenson. 2013. PNAS. E1191–E1195

• Integrating Ecosystem Goods and Services in MSP
• Cross-border MSP
• Integrating MSP in global ecosystem assessment and management processes (IPCC)
• Developing MSP for regions with large increas in pressures: e.g. the Arctic
• Barents sea (& globally): largest expected changes in the coming 80 years will be due to climate change!

Cumulative impacts

Ecosystem models

General (global) ecosystem model

Atlantis spatial scenarios

Northeast US Ecosystem

Micheli F, et al. 2013. PLoS ONE 8(12): e79889. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0079889

Ocean Health Index

Halpern, et al. (2012). Nature, 488(7413), 615–620.

Harfoot et al., 2014. PLoS Biol 12(4): e1001841. doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841

Photo: T.D.L. Wenneck