Midterm polls

Midterm Election Polls

$1.25

Friday, October 17, 2014

Vol XCIII, No. 311

Polling

What even is it? Why do we do it?

What are Midterm Elections?

Polling is done by large companies like Gallup. They use sample populations from around the country. This sample is then projected to represent how the rest of the country will most likely vote.

This is important because of how much is riding on these elections. Depeding on what party dominates the different houses in Congress in respect to the president could determine the types of action that will be taken in the country.

Also polls help the people running campaigns to direct their message toward their target voter population.

• Elections that occcur every four years between presidential elections
• 435 seats in the house are up for election
• 1/3 of the seats in the Senate are up or election

Polling for the 2014 Midterm Election

By Gallup

Why are they important?

What This is Telling Us

"Gallup's new question asking Americans who they think will win control of the Senate offers some hope for Republicans, as they lead on this by 10 points, 52% to 42%. But with no trends available for comparison, and control of the Senate likely coming down to a handful of races that are too close to call -- such as in Arkansas, Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, North Carolina, Kansas, Georgia, and Iowa -- it is not clear how useful this national perceptual measure really is.

An even larger majority of Americans expect the Republicans to retain control of the House, a projected outcome supported by the political parity in registered voters' vote intentions. Still, the Republicans' 33-seat advantage is small by historical standards, and Gallup analysis suggests that Americans' low satisfaction with the direction of the country could fuel high seat turnover. But the conformity of the new poll findings with other important signals -- including President Barack Obama's subpar approval rating, Obama's net-negative effect on voters' choice of candidates, and Republicans' current advantage on several indicators of potential turnout -- adds weight to their significance"(Saad).

These elections determine the majority in congress and often set the course for the country in the two remaining years of a presidential term.

Do you trust the data collected by the Gallup polling group to determine how the Midterm Election will go?

How do you believe this election would be different if polls lile the one Gallup made did not exist?

Discussion Questions

With the Republican Party expected to win control of both the House and the Senate, how do you believe the last 2 years of President Obama's term will go?

Works Cited

ABC News: Election Countdown

Gallup. Gallup, n.d. Web. 9 Oct. 2014. <http://www.gallup.com/poll/24493/

election-polls-accuracy-record-midterm-congressional-elections.aspx>.

History. A+E Television Networks, n.d. Web. 9 Oct. 2014.

<http://www.history.com/images/media/pdf/2010MidtermElectionLesson.pdf>.

Saad, Lydia. "Slim Majority in U.S. Expect Republicans to Win the Senate."

Gallup. Gallup, 10 Oct. 2014. Web. 14 Oct. 2014.

<http://www.gallup.com/poll/178271/

slim-majority-expect-republicans-win-senate.aspx>.