Jared Diamond's book Collapse
outlined how societies choose to fail or succeed. He developed a 5-point framework for analyzing the "collapse"ibility of socities.
Environmental Damage
Climate Change
Hostile neighbors
Friendly Trade Partners
I will be using this scale to rate each country on their likelihood of collapsing in relation to each point in the framework.
Egypt
Some Facts
Location:Northern Africa, bordering the Mediterranean Sea, between Libya and the Gaza Strip, and the Red Sea north of Sudan, and includes the Asian Sinai Peninsula
Climate: Desert; hot, dry summers with moderate winters
Ethnicities: Egyptian 99.6%, other 0.4% (2006 census)
Population: 83,688,164 estimated
Economy:Oil is a main export for the country with it being the 6th largest exporter of liquiefied natural gas exporter in the world
Agriculture:cotton, rice, corn, wheat, beans, fruits, vegetables; cattle, water buffalo, sheep, goats
Major industries: textiles, food processing, tourism, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, hydrocarbons, construction, cement, metals, light manufactures
Important exports : crude oil and petroleum products, cotton, textiles, metal products, chemicals, processed food
Egypt's geography is divided into four sections
1)The Nile Valley and Delta
2)The Western Desert
3)The Eastern Desert
4)Sinai Peninsula
Major Environmental Issues
- Uneven population distribution
- Extreme arid weather
- Lack of arable land
- Air/water/sewage/oil drilling pollution
- Access to clean water
- Overcultivation
- Poor soil conditions
Environmental Damage Rating:8
Climate Change
Effects
In 1992, Egypt established a climate change unit in the Egyptian Environmental Affairs Agency.
Climate change has been affecting the Nile Delta by causing its water to rise and farmers fight to save their land.
Rising sea waters have damaged local crops with excess of saltwater.
Over the last 100 years, climate change has caused the Mediterranean Sea to rise 6 inches.
Rising sea water will force many Egyptians to flee the region, including farmers which will have a major effect on the country's agriculture.
The water surrounding Alexandria, Egypt's 2nd largest city, continues to rise and may cause the region to be flooded within a few decades
Hostile Neighbors
Egypt and Sudan have a very friendly relationship and are strong allies.
Friendly Trade Partners
Egypt’s major export partners for merchandise are:
- European Union (35.4%)
- India (6.3%)
- United States (4.9%)
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (4.8%)
- Japan (3.3%)
Egypt’s major import partners for merchandise are:
- European Union (27.1%)
- United States (10.8%)
- China (8.4%)
- Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (5.9%)
- Russian Federation (4.3%)
Friendly Trade Partners Rating:0
*Meaning that there are no problems with the country's friendly trade partners
Egypt's Air pollution
Water Pollution
Problem: The Nile River is Egypt's main water resource, yet it faces constant pollution from improper disposal of sewage and other environmental factors.
Solution: In 1982, Egypt mandated a law to protect the Nile and other bodies of water. The law also made it a requirement to receive license from the Ministry of Irrigation for dumping waste into the Nile.
*Meaning how much effort did the society put forth and its effectiveness
Some Facts
-Climate:Tropical
-Ethnicities: 75% Thai, Chinese 14% other 11%
-Population: 67,091,089
-Economy: Free enterprise. Thai exports mostly machinery and electronic components through manufacturing which accounts for more than half of their GDP.
GDP: 609.8 million
Agriculture: Rice, cassava, rubber, corn, sugarcane, coconuts, soybeans
-Major industries: Tourism, textiles and garments, agricultural processing, beverages, tobacco, cement, light manufacturing
Thailand has the second largest economy in Southeast Asia after Indonesia.
Interesting facts:
World’s second largest tungsten producer
Third largest tin producer in the world
Major Contribution to the global world: Rice
Known as the 'rice bowl' of Asia
Thailand’s biggest environmental issues is the environmental damage of air pollution due to heavy exhaust fumes from motorcycles, and buses that help transport exported and imported goods.
Air pollution is most prevalent in Bangkok, which is the capital of Thailand, as it is the central area where heavy traffic, tourism, and major businesses take place.
Usual traffic in Bangkok
Environmental Damage Rating:6
Due to Climate Change, Thailand has been experiencing an increase in frequent floods and storms.
Other effects:
Rise in temperatures
Droughts
Rising sea level
Interestingly, rice agriculture in Thailand is both a victim and contributor to climate change. Heavy production of rice contributes to immense CO2 emissions, while climate change forces rice farmers to adapt to new weather conditions
Climate Change Rating:7
Thailand and its neighbors
Thailand and Cambodia have a history of tense relations.The two have fought over claims to territory in the Preah Vihear Temple and Cambodia decided to withdraw their ambassdor from Thailand. As a result, the two countries are hostile to one another.
Laos
Thailand and Laos are bordering countries with a complicated history, yet they both have interests to maintain a peaceful relationship. In the 1980s, the two countries had miltary disputes with each other. Yet, with the goal of peace in mind, the two collaborated to open a 'Friendship Bridge' that allows more transparency between commerce and military in each country. The two countries desire a mutually beneficial relationship and are do not consider themselves hostile to one another.
Malaysia
Thailand has a strained relationship with Malaysia that has recently become more tense due to claims by Thailand that Malaysia has allied themself with Thai's enemies. Also, illegal immigration, fishing, and insurgency issues have contirbuted to tense relations. However, the two countries still maintain a stable relationship and have not resorted to hostility yet.
Vietnam
Thailand and Vietnam have enjoyed a friendly diplomatic relationship since 1976 that has benefitted them both economically and politically.
China
Thailand and China have a history of friendly relations that date back to 13th century during China's Han and Tang dynasties. Today the countries amiable relationship has continued to thrive with them being major business partners and providing a channel for cultural exchanges.
Friendly Trade Partners
Congresswoman Pelosi visits the Phat Thai mobile food truck
#1
The US is Thailand's largest export partner and the third-largest supplier after Japan and China.
Thailand's other trade partners are:
India
China
The Middle East
ASEAN member countries(Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam)
Hong Kong
South Africa
Australia
Friendly Trade Partners Rating:0
Society's response to its environmental problems
Solution: Thailand's government mandated that oil companies produce cleaner fuel, instituted higher taxes on motorcylists, required all taxis to use clean-burning liqufied petroleum gas and placed stricter emissions controls.
Problem: Extreme droughts and water shortages
Solution: Thailand explored a technique called 'rainmaking', which involves the use of planes to seed clouds with salt in order to unlock the moisture within and produce rain. Once the water vapor gathers, rain begins to fall. Despite success, some are skeptical of the effects of artificial rain and the expensiveness of this process.
Problem: Devestating 2004 Tsunami
Images from the Tsunami
Solution: Thailand began an intensive coastal ecosystem restoration project and have installed two satellite-linked sea buoys to detect sudden increases in pressure that may indicate future tsunamis. Also, Thailand has mandated that new building be constructed with higher safety standards.
Society's Response to its environmental Problems Rating:8
Conclusion
Egypt
Both countries posses a rich cultural history and are currently growing economically due to similar features such as tourism. Strikingly, just as they share the same characteristics of countries that are expanding their financial and political power, they both suffer from the same environmental challenges such as water shortages, pollution, and drought.
Luckily, the two countries have the advantage of having many friendly trade partners. Overall, through research I've concluded that both countries are relatively stable and aren't in serious danger of collapsing soon.The main factors that contributed to this conclusion were the countries successful initiatives to combat environmental problems, their lack of hostile neighbors, and their wealth of friendly trade partners.
View my citations here (copy and paste link)
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1vkT4DgHfY-dC2n320cfv9rh_Q3yZYfvvYo85ZTDcxYE/edit
Egypt vs. Thailand
5-point Framework
Society's response to its environmental problems
Air Pollution
Thailand
Society's response to its environmental problems Rating:7
Problem: Egypt's capital, Cairo, faced extreme air pollution that resulted in the sky being coated with a gray fog and many inhabitants developing respiratory diseases.
Solution: The Egyptian Ministry of Environment established eleven stations to monitor air pollutants in various places to keep track of current pollution rates.
Sewage Pollution
Problem: Sewage waste is one of Egypt's biggest problems. The country lacks widespread proper infrastructure for the disposal of sewage.
Solution:The Egyptian Ministry of Environment allocated 390.5 million to development of a better sewage disposal system.
Society's response to its environmental problems
*http://www.afribiz.info/content/egypt-trade-and-economic-partnerships-2011
Lets explore Egypt and Thailand to determine the 'collapse'ibility of the two countries
Hostile Neighbors Rating: 1
Saudi Arabia
After the Arab-Israeli conflict, Saudi Arabia chose to end diplomatic relations and suspend aid to Egypt. Yet since 1987, the two countries began working to establish a better relationship.The two are no longer at odds.
Jordan
Similar to Libya, Egypt and Jordan maintained good relations until 1972, when they had a falling out due to mixed values. Now the two countries enjoy a calm, stable relationship and aren't hostile neighbors.
Libya
Egypt and Libya gained independence around the same time and were allies in the 1973 Arab-Israeli War.Yet the two countries actually warred against each other in the 1977 Libyan-Egyptian War. After 12 years, the two begin to rebuild their relationship. The two are steadily improving their relations.
Israel
Sudan
Now let's take a look at Thailand and determine its 'collapse'ibility
In 1949, Egypt and Israel had very tense relationships as they fought each other in the Arab-Israeli War. In 1979, the war ended and the two countries signed a peace treaty. Although Egypt doesn't always agree with Israel's stance in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the two countries have a non-hostile relationship.
*https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.eeaa.gov.eg%2Fenglish%2Freports%2FCC%2Fdoc%2FCCCD-NEEDS%2520Final%2520report-May27-1.pdf
Climate Change Rating:7
Environmental Damage
Thailand
Overall 'Collapse'ibility rating: 6
vs.
Overall 'Collapse'ibility rating: 6
Egypt's Environmental Damage
Climate Change
Problem: Extreme Air pollution in Bangkok
Climate Change
(cc) photo by medhead on Flickr
*http://www.economywatch.com/world_economy/egypt/export-import.html
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/eg.html
http://modernegypt.info/one-hundred-facts-about-egypt/
Evironmental Damage
The rising sea level is extremely destructive to Thailand's valuable rice crops and it also threatens to submerge Bangkok within 20 years.
*Venugopal, Shally and Dana Krechowicz with contributions from Deepa Shinde, Charanjit Singh (HSBC) and Roshan Padamadan (HSBC). 2010. Surveying Risk, Building Opportunity: Financial Impacts of Energy Insecurity, Water Scarcity, and Climate Change on Asia’s Commercial Real Estate Sector. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute and HSBC. Available online: http://www.wri.org/publication/surveying-risk-building-opportunity-asia.
Hostile Neighbors Rating: 6
Cambodia
Burma
Thailand and Burma have a history of suspicion and resentment, in relation to Burma adopting socialist practices that Thailand did not agree with. However, their relationship often fluctuates, with Thailand being Burmans strongest trade partner in 2008, yet Thailand still abhors the large amount of refugees that come across the border of Burma as they flee conflict zones. There are an estimated 150,000 refugees in camps along the Thai-Burma border. Although relations aren't currently hostile, Thailand has stated that it plans to change its relationship with Burma.
Hostile Neighbors