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Transcript

Stephen Kinsella, UL

Utopia

  • Economy tends towards its potential output
  • Technological change ensures increasing returns to scale
  • Living standards rise
  • Stable society with living conditions increasing.

Distopia

  • Permanent Hysteresis
  • Hits resource constraint
  • energy/population/war/etc
  • Living standards plateau/ fall.

Population Aging

  • Increased pensions cost
  • Increased Healthcare cost
  • Increased Purchasing power->changes in marketing/ modes of production
  • Change in political power
  • Culture itself might change

Policies to deal with aging

  • Pension reform now
  • Mandatory pension provision
  • Tax free long terms savings
  • Diaspora/recovery/municipal bond structure
  • Community care programmes

Climate Change

  • Increased rainfall implies increased flooding
  • Urgent need for infrastructual development
  • Gradual resettlement of affected population
  • Retooling of agriculture/services to cope

Coping with climate change

  • Levies/flood breaks/river diversion
  • Comprehensive nationwide plan
  • Horizontal scanning?
  • Resettlement
  • Ag. Subsidies.

Energy

  • Energy Security
  • Wind/Wave not up to scratch
  • Nuclear Power/Interconnectors only solution.

Nuclear?

  • Pros/Cons
  • Cost of interconnectors
  • Green investment/innovation

Culture

  • Changing nature of the family.
  • Isolation of communities~Jane Grey.
  • Impact of NAMA/NAMA 2.0
  • Micro suburbs?

Education

  • Won't need gifted list learners
  • Burn down leaving cert
  • More ideas->More businesses->more jobs->more growth

Final Questions

  • Global Question: US or Asia?
  • Educational system change
  • How to encourage long term (> 9 months) thinking in Irish politics?

Sustainable Development

Today

  • Demography
  • Pensions/Taxation changes
  • Cultural changes
  • Energy Challenges

Ireland in 2050: How we will be Living, Liberties Press, 2009

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