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Significant digits

Quote from Saab motor (5-9 hk semidiesel) manual:

“Går motoren godt, prøv ikke å få den til å gå bedre.”

If the motor is running well, don't try to make it run better

Minister of Fisheries sets up review committee, but no comment on chain of events or role of stakeholders/scientists

Significant scripts

“One of my roles is participating in Coastal States meetings – not in the negotiations, but in an advisory capacity, as a scientist. […]. I say things to three different groups: If I say it to my national administration, I’m a [national identity] scientist. If I say it in a delegation meeting involving the EU, then I’m an EU scientist at that point. And if it is a plenary discussion on something, and they need to make reference to me for some description, then I’m an ICES scientist at that point. I’m still the same person, and I am saying exactly the same thing.” (Interview, Scientist, June 2014)

“I did not feel responsible for organizing the participatory process. I assumed throughout the preparations of this meeting that they [the ICES Secretariat] had extended the invitations to the stakeholders. […]. Then I found out maybe four or five days before the meeting that this hadn't happened. So I basically stepped out of my role as an invited expert to ICES, or as invited Chair, by inviting the stakeholders/fishing industry., saying: ‘Hey, this meeting is going on. I'm sure that it is intended to be an open meeting. You can participate! Are you coming?’” (Interview, Scientist, December 2014)

“The [non-EU country] chairman refused to accept the presentation on the management plan, because [the Chair] wanted to make a public statement that they were not having the (European) Commission telling them what to do. This was the first time I had actually hit such a public political problem. It was a bit of a shock”. (Interview, Scientist, January 2014)

PROBLEM

What is

Science?

Fisheries management in the North Sea

Science

contemporary fisheries management?

= Stock Assessment

+

Acoustic survey data

Fisheries catch data

social repurcussions of 1-sided (biologically-based) advice?

Fish stock assessment in a nutshell:

summarized from Dankert Skagen's course (2008)

  • create a model-stock that is dependent on some parameters
  • from this, we associate expected observations
  • catch at age
  • survey index at age (using a catchability model)
  • we compare these observations with the actual observations
  • the difference is expressed using an objective function
  • try to find the set of parameters that gives the best fit to the real observed data through an optimization procedure
  • the model-stock that gives these best parameter values is the estimate of the stock

TAC distribution

Advice

Negotiated Total TAC

Annual Cycle

Expert Groups

stock assmt results

Advice Drafting Groups

Advisory Committee

1st version of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) advice

ICES Clients (>20)

formalized TAC advice

Negotiations

ICES Advice (TAC)

Negotiation among Coastal States

How to share the TAC?

The underlying science has inherent uncertainties, is sometimes irreproducible & undocumented & based on value judgements

Who should decide?

On what basis?

Fisheries quota advice:

Significant scripts & significant digits

@dorothydankel

Dorothy J. Dankel, Ph.D.

Researcher, Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen

Board Member, Nordic Marine Think Tank, nmtt.org

Roles in stock assessment

ICES advises that a dialogue among decision authorities, fishermen and scientists should aid the design of management rules

Roles:

Science: possibilities & limits

Fishermen: preference & needs

Authorities: cross interests, tactical constraints, objectives

Experiences in Europe:

Science: problemitizing the data and the model(s)

Fishermen: lobbying

Authorities: cards tight to chest, creating negotiation space

Tips to Norwegian stock assessment students (2008):

watch out for the "science boundary" and don't be bait for strong interest groups!

“When an individual plays a part he implicitly requests his observers to take seriously the impression that is fostered before them. They are asked to believe that the character they see actually possesses the attributes he appears to possess, that the task he performs will have the consequences that are implicitly claimed for it, and that, in general, matters are what they appear to be.”

– Erving Goffman, “The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life” p. 26

What hat are you wearing?

Scripts & roles of fisheries scientists in Europe

Dankel, Stange, Nielsen in prep

retired stock assmt scientist, independent consultant

developer

judger

reviewer

messenger

stock assessment

Herring advice 2015

ICES

"Sildesaken" Timeline of Events

Dispute between fishermen & government institution scientists

January 2015

2013-2014

February 2015

My summary of the on-going Herring Dispute

April 2015

May 2015

June 2015

Collaborative survey cruise scientists-fishermen

Some fishermen hire retired stock assessment scientist to review the stock assessment

Institute denies allegations of censorship of ex-inst. scientist

73 fishermen give €1400 each to finance ex-institute scientist continue to "find the error"

Admin. Director of Institute dismisses all accusations of credibility of the stock surveys and quota advice & says the scientists must concentrate on "the big, heavy processes within ICES"

Norwegian Spring Spawning herring fishermen & ex-institute scientist dispute official quota advice for herring; start "find the error" campaign

Scientists keep lid on survey data, announce a relative number & no revision of quota advice

Some fishermen dismayed, publically discredit institute's credibility

Uncertainty

is more than a number

technical (inexactness)

methodological (unrealiability)

epistemological (ignorance)

societal (limited social robustness)

Norwegian/EU/North American cases

Framings of uncertainty:

DEFICIT VIEW

  • uncertainty can be overcome (more research)
  • more complex models will reduce uncertainty
  • "Speaking truth to power"

EVIDENCE EVALUATION VIEW (expert panels, scientific consensus)

  • comparative evaluations of research results
  • "Speaking consensus to power"

COMPLEX SYSTEMS VIEW/ POST-NORMAL VIEW

  • uncertainty is intrinsic to complex systems
  • openly deal with deeper dimensions of uncertainty
  • "Working deliberatively within imperfections"

ICES cases

Management Strategy Evaluations (Southern Hemisphere)

  • scientists are struggling with uncertainty (see Dankel et al. 2012 "Advice under uncertainty in the marine system")
  • institution's administration struggling for credibility & legitmacy
  • a discrepancy between the line of command & the line of knowledge at the institute (administration vs. scientists)
  • fishermen are very vocal in the coastal newspaper, but scientists (strategically?) stay in the background (accusations of censorship of scientists from institute's directors)
  • a divide between the different fishermen's organizations
  • fishermen's organization hiring retired and ex-institute scientists to aid in the survey results/stock assmt
  • the Norwegian institute pushes responsibility of the stock assessment & quota advice to ICES, but IMR scientists are (should be) the experts of their own data & models
  • desire for dialogue from both sides, but no outline on how to proceed; lack of experience? What is the role of the Ministry?

What could be done differently?

working deliberately within imperfections

  • state of the art uncertainty quantification/communication
  • www.NUSAP.net
  • National Aquarium (USA) Expert Panel recommendations "Addressing uncertainty in fisheries science and management"
  • dedicate time & training to scientists & stakeholders in stock assessment and communication (ICES courses)
  • regular, iterative pre-agreed procedural dialogue meetings (Dankel, in progress)
  • published guidelines

Uncertainty in stock assessment & management advice:

the need for the Management Procedure

Fisheries quota advice for management: Significant scripts & significant digits

@dorothydankel

Dorothy J. Dankel, Ph.D.

original illustrations: Mariano Collantes

Researcher, Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, UiB

Board Member, Nordic Marine Think Tank

Martin Pastoors, former ICES ACFM Chair;Pelagic Freezer-Trawler

Association

"How can uncertain science be linked with good governance processes, thereby increasing fisheries management legitimacy and effectiveness?"

"Sildesaken"

the current case of the Norwegian Spring Spawning Herring

Conflicting assessments confuse the scientists & anger the stakeholders

SOLUTIONS

re-framing as a "post-normal problem"

Fisheries Quotas

Dorothy J. Dankel, Ph.D.

Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (Senter for Vitenskapsteori, SVT)

@dorothydankel

uncertainties

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