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“Science is often described as an iterative and cumulative process, a puzzle solved piece by piece, with each piece contributing a few hazy pixels of a much larger picture. But the arrival of a truly powerful new theory in science often feels far from iterative. Rather than explain one observation or phenomenon in a single, pixelated step, an entire field of observations suddenly seems to crystallize into a perfect whole. The effect is almost like watching a puzzle solve itself.”

Siddhartha Mukherjee: The Emperor of All Maladies

How computational methods can support food chain safety

decision making?

Ákos JÓŹWIAK, NÉBIH

Seek for new approaches, new analysis and control methods

Computational science as a solution

Food chain is actually a

  • Big data
  • Network science
  • Data mining
  • (Business) intelligence
  • Quantified self
  • STEAM (science, technology, engineering, arts, mathematics)
  • ...

complex network

  • Meta-analysis
  • Psychology
  • Game-theory
  • Decision theory
  • Risk-benefit analysis
  • Predictive modeling
  • ...

Computational

science

  • able to detect patterns which can not be detected by a smaller set of data
  • those emerging patterns can be surprising & counter-intuitive
  • 'more is different'

Important is...

...the story behind the numbers!

Creation and development of (big) databases is not only an IT problem

The ability of analysis and evaluation of input data and results: high-level knowledge of food chain science is needed enabling interpretation and validation.

gleamviz.org

Society

Nature

What is the risk perception of the society?

Do we need to eat?

Complex drivers

Many orders of magnitude

Climate change

Economic crisis

Increasing complexity of the food chain

Global population growth

How global we are?

Global trends

2050: 9.3 billion people expected

international trade in food and feed is expected to rise significantly in order to nourish the global population

The sensed globalization is far from finished, actually this process is only the beginning and the world we know is more local than global: both our personal relations and business connections are realised in our direct environment.

  • The global economy up to 2010 was constantly growing (3.2% per year on average during the period between 1980-2010).
  • This trend changed due to the economic crisis and it is very difficult to make any predictions now.
  • However, it is clear that developing countries are facing a further expansion.

Pankaj Ghemawat and Steven A. Altman: DHL GLOBAL CONNECTEDNESS INDEX 2012. Analyzing global flows and their power to increase prosperity

Growing complexity

7 countries (5 EU member states, the USA and China) form the core of the international agro-food trade network, each trading with over 77% of all the countries in the world

The world’s food trade grows faster than the food production

Ercsey-Ravasz, M., Toroczkai, Z., Lakner, Z. & Baranyi, J. Complexity of the International Agro-Food Trade Network and Its Impact on Food Safety. PLoS ONE 7, e37810 (2012)

Ercsey-Ravasz, M., Toroczkai, Z., Lakner, Z., & Baranyi, J. (2012). Complexity of the International Agro-Food Trade Network and Its Impact on Food Safety. (V. Colizza, Ed.) PLoS ONE, 7(5), e37810. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0037810

Information boom

From nano particles...

Emerging risks

Extreme

weather

Deminishing resources

Markets

Science

... brought us where we are

Business

New technologies

Terrorism

Fraud,

adulteration

Food security issues

  • printing food with 3D printer
  • soy and pea proteins to mimic meaty texture
  • hydroponic greenhouses
  • development of new adulteration technologies
  • ...

From the dawn of the civilization to 2003 humans produced 5 exabytes of data.

... to international trade patterns

Assessment science: not pure

Solution?

Assessment science

Pure science

Food chain safety issues

  • Curiosity driven
  • Disinterested
  • Discipline based
  • Scrutinized by peers in discipline
  • Receptive environment
  • Purpose driven
  • Sponsored
  • Cross-disciplinary and cross-institutional
  • Publicly scrutinized
  • Rejecting environment

Authority

Now we produce 5 exabytes every 2 days.

S. Keola, M. Andersson and O. Hall: “Monitoring development from space: Using night-time light and land cover data as proxies of economic growth”

(via http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/09/measuring-local-economies)

Data Science

&

Computational tools

Politics

Policy-related scientific problems:

  • uncertain facts
  • disputes over ethics and values
  • urgent decisions needed
  • that may have far-reaching consequences

Policy makers are required to make difficult and firm decisions based on data characterized by high levels of uncertainty.

Post-normal science

Global life expectancy (weighted average) and by world region, 1770-2012

Source: xkcd.com

Source: Susanne Hertirch

Source: xkcd.com

Predicted share of the global economy in 2050

Fouré, Jean, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré and Lionel Fontagné:

The World Economy in 2050: a Tentative Picture, Paris, 2010 .

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