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Paul Krugman:
If that’s what happened, then the ECB’s hard-money madness may have destroyed the euro.
Nouriel Roubini: "Europe is “running out of time” to fix its woes"
Voir:
Simon Johnson et Peter Boone: "Tragedy awaits. European politicians are likely to stall until markets force a chaotic end upon them. Let’s hope they are planning quietly to keep disorder from turning into chaos. " Voir:
"I have yet to be convinced that the European Council is capable of reaching such a substantive agreement given its past record. Of course, it will agree on something and sell it as a comprehensive package. It always does. But the halt-life of these fake packages has been getting shorter. After the last summit, the financial markets’ enthusiasm over the ludicrous idea of a leveraged EFSF evaporated after less than 48 hours. Italy’s disastrous bond auction on Friday tells us time is running out. The eurozone has 10 days at most."
But no, the ECB will defend its credibility. And it will end up as the highly credible defender of the value of a currency that no longer exists.
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/11/27/the-euro-curse/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/the-euro-area-is-coming-to-an-end-peter-boone-and-simon-johnson.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-17/roubini-says-greek-default-could-cause-lehman-magnitude-shock.html
Wolfgang Münchau:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/d9a299a8-1760-11e1-b00e-00144feabdc0
L'Irlande?
De Grauwe (1997)
Warin (2000)
Mundell (1961)
Coordination/coopération
Eichengreen (1993)
Krugman (1993)
Beetsma, Bovenberg (1995)
Pisani-Ferry (2002)
Frankel and Rose (1998)
Barro Gordon (1983)
Mundell (1973)
Rogoff (1985)
Politiques budgétaires
Reinhart, C. and Rogoff, K., 2010, Growth in a time of debt, American Economic Review, 100(2), pp. 573-78:
« Ratios of public debt to GDP in excess of 90% have been associated with growth rates on average 1% lower than in lower debt countries »
Irlande
Portugal
Italie
Espagne
Grèce
France
Allemagne
(1) les succès de l'euro
(2) l'explosion de la bulle des marchés financiers
(3) la structure politique de l'UEM est le vrai problème, la cause...
(4) Plus on attend, plus c'est une situation à la Charybde et Scylla... Plus on a des problèmes de liquidité (crédibilité)