Use of Complexity Theory in SCS Impact Evaluation

In 21 of 26 cases where comparative data could be obtained, GEF has supported initiatives that reduced environmental stress and, as a result, also improved or maintained socioeconomic conditions.

Environmental stress reduction is occurring at the local scale, therefore GEF-supported technologies and approaches are effective.

BUT....

GEF links coastal & marine initiatives at different scales.

• Remote sensing analysis
• Comparison with large-scale trends
• Before-and-after / with-and-without
• Meta-analysis of available monitoring data
• Field verification

Drivers of environmental degradation are not being addressed at the right scale.

Too many actors and confounding factors at the regional scale

GEF has facilitated trust and cooperation among countries.

• Historical analysis
• Social network analysis
• Comparison with other regions
• Key informant interviews

In social-ecological systems, cross-scale interaction is key (Brondizio et al. 2009)

Monitoring data not available in many sites!

BUT....

How did GEF support cross-scale interactions?

THAILAND

Regional trends declining...

CHONBURI

How to find counterfactuals?

Mangrove Cover

Countries are still heavily dependent on donors to fund regional environmental initiatives.

TRAT

Photo from Tanggol Kalikasan

...local trends improving!

CHINA

Fangchenggang

REGIONAL

CONTEXT

Largest funder of regional coastal and marine initiatives

REGIONAL DONOR GRANTS IN EAST ASIA FOR INTERNATIONAL WATERS CONCERNS

USA

1988 -2008

> US$ 24.2 M

CANADA

> US$ 25.1 M

EUROPEAN COMMISSION

Channel for other actors to support regional coastal and marine concerns

US$ 21.3 M

GEF

AUSTRALIA

> US$ 16.2 M

SWEDEN

NETHERLANDS

US$ 8.8 M

ITALY

SWITZERLAND

US$ 6.3 M

US$ 5.5 M

US$ 142.63 M in East Asia

US$ ~42 M

GERMANY

US$ 4.1 M

JAPAN

US$ 1.4 M

US$ 57.5 M in SCS alone

Long-standing actors have expanded their regional marine-related mandates

SCS Network without GEF

SCS Network with GEF

Actors typically working at the national scale are contributing in the regional arena

Facilitation of trust and collaboration among stakeholders

NATIONAL

GEF links initiatives at multiple scales to address regional environmental priorities

GEF'S NICHE

support to country policies & programs to fulfill commitments to global conventions and regional priorities

LOCAL

introduction of technologies and approaches addressing regional priorities

OTHER ACTORS

multiple actors

THANK YOU!

GEF General Theory of Change Framework

delayed system responses

feedback loops

multiple scales and actors

Why the South China Sea?

COMPLEXITY

Impact of GEF Support in the

South China Sea and Adjacent Areas

Applying Complexity Theory in a Large-Scale Evaluation

Aaron Zazueta

Chief Evaluation Officer

20 March 2013

Washington, DC

On large-scale evaluations....

• Complexity theory is useful for defining evaluative questions, but tools for the analysis of complex systems are not always needed to answer them

• Due to the time, costs and specialized skills involved, tools for analysis of complexity must be used judiciously

GEF has catalyzed transformational change by supporting replication and scaling-up at site level, and mainstreaming at higher scales.

• Use of different methods is key to triangulating evidence and increasing certainty

• Backtracking on causal pathways
• Assessment of country context and historical timelines
• Analysis of similar scenarios

Difficult to predict the future

• Context and contributions of other actors highly affect impact and must be taken into consideration

BUT....

• Scientific theory/knowledge is essential for understanding the system to be evaluated before the evaluative questions can be defined

Is GEF putting its money now where it will count the most later?

Global environmental benefits can only be achieved if

Findings

Conditions conducive to broader adoption exist at supported sites.

Regional commons are directly addressed.

KEY PROCESSES

Not all sites are created equal.....

At SITE LEVEL

In TWO other demonstration sites, support was also given for broader adoption but did not progress as much.

Replication

Scaling-up

WHY?

Conditions Conducive to Broader Adoption

PLACES

where broader adoption processes occurred

Mainstreaming

MAINSTREAMING THROUGH

Conclusion One

Although environmental pressures in the SCS continue to increase, GEF has made important contributions that are relevant to addressing regional transboundary issues.

At HIGHER SCALES

• Participation in regional implementing mechanism (PEMSEA)
• Provincial and national laws adopting integrated coastal management and ecosystem management principles
• Implementation of regionally agreed priorities at local level

YET...

BROADER ADOPTION INITIATED

On GEF support to international waters....

CONCLUSIONS

• GEF links actors and initiatives across scales
• GEF-supported initiatives have resulted in stress reduction and some environmental change at a local scale
• Broader adoption is necessary for system-scale impacts to occur
• More initiatives addressing the regional commons are necessary for achieving global environmental benefits

QUESTIONS?