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Oslo and Its Aftermath

A detailed explanation of the political developments regarding the Israeli-Palestinian peace process throughout and after the Oslo Accords. This presentation is for a 3 hour seminar on the politics of the contemporary Middle East
by

Kate Calle

on 10 October 2011

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Transcript of Oslo and Its Aftermath

The
Oslo
Accords

And Its Aftermath
Political Context
and
Palestinian Politics
Israeli Politics
External Influence
has caused
to lead to
FAILURE
in regards to solving the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Conflict
So Where Do We Go From Here?
One State Solution
Two State Solution
Right of Return
Right to Self Determination

OR
Kadima
Likud
Yisrael Beiteinu
Shas
United Arab List- Ta'al
Independence
United Torah Judaism
National Union
Hadash
Labor Party
New Movement- Meretz
The Jewish Home
Balad
Whole Nation
The Knesset
Arab Israeli Political Groups founded in the mid 1990s
Banned from the 2009 Israeli Central Election Committee
Ban overturned by the Supreme Court of Israel
Ibrahim Sarsur
Taleb el-Sana
Masud Ghnaim
Muhamad Kanan
Tawfik Khatib
4
Founded in 1992
Split in 2004 over Sharon's coalition
United in 2006
Ran by ultra-orthodox Hasidic rabbis
Has a strong influence on Shas Party
5
Moshe Gafni
Yaakov Litzman
Yaakov Cohen
Yaakov Aryen Alter
4
Founded in 1999
Wants a united Jerusalem under Israeli control
Supports settlement expansion
Supports strengthening Knesset over the Israeli Supreme Court
Does not believe in cooperation with the PNA
Eryeh Eldad
Michael Ben-Ari
Uri Ariel
Yaakov Katz
4
Known as The Democratic Front for Peace and Equality
A Jewish Arabic socialist front
Many members are former Black Panthers, an Israeli protest movement against discrimation of Mizrahi Jews
Tawfik Toubi
Mohammad Barakeh
Hana Sweid
Dov Khenin
Afu Agbaria
Prime Minister
Supreme Court
15
Founded in 1999
Traditionally represents immigrants from the former Soviet Union
Does not recognize the two state solution
Supports increased Jewish immigrants and settlements
Avigdor Lieberman
David Rotem
Uzi Landau
Stas Misezhnikov
Yitznak Ahoronovich
"No Loyalty, No Citizenship!"
2009 Election Slogan
Opposed the Road Map for Peace
Current Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs
Current Deputy Prime Minister
Supports Settlement expansion despite U.S. call for a stop to settlements
Yitzhak Rabin
Shimon Peres
Benjamin Netanyahu
Ehud Barak
Ariel Sharon
Ehud Olmert
July 13, 1992-November 4, 1995
November 22, 1995-June 18, 1996
June 18, 1996-July 6, 1999
July 6, 1999-March 7, 2001
March 7, 2001- April 14, 2006
April 14, 2006-March 31, 2009
March 31, 2009- Current Day
Kadima
Likud
Kadima
Labor
Likud
Labor
Labor
Vote of Confidence
The most powerful figure in Israeli politics
From 1996-2001, the Prime Minister was directly elected, separately from the Knesset
3
A left wing, Zionist socialist democratic party founded in 1992
Supports peace with Palestinians and universal human rights (especially for ethnic and sexual minorities)
Believes in religious freedom
Nitzan Horowitz
Zehava Gal-On
Nalm Oron
Uzi Even
Ilan Gilion
First openly gay member of Knesset
5
Established in January 2011
A centrist, Zionist, Democratic Party
Succeeded from the Labor party
A political move by Barak to keep part of the Labor party loyal AND support the Netanyahu coalition despite the failed peace process
A day after its creation, 4 out of 5 of its Knesset members obtained ministerial positions
Ehud Barak
Matan Vilnai
Shalom Simhon
Orit Noked
Einat Wilf
28
Eli Yishai
Ehud Olmert
Tzipi Livni
Shaul Mofaz
Dalia Itzik
Roni Bar-On
Established in 2005 by moderate Likud and Labor
Central liberal political party
Sharon split from Likud after Likud withdrew support for unilateral disengagement from Gaza and parts of the West Bank
Won the most seats in the 2009 election but became opposition party after Likud was able to form a government
A leading voice in the Two State Solution
Started in Likud, but left with Olmert and Sharon
the legislative branch
the executive branch
the judicial branch
10
Founded in 1984
Ultra-orthodox religious party representing mainly Sephardic and Mizrahi Haredi Judaism
Joined Netanyahu's 2009 coalition
In 1999, its former party leader, Aryeh Deri faced corruption charges
Ariel Sharon
Ariel Altas
Yitzhak Cohen
Amnon Cohen
David Azulai
Nissim Ze'ev
Minister of Internal Affairs
8
Founded in 1968
Origins evolved from the Socialist Zionist Party
Established the Israeli Defense Force
One Nation party, under Perez merged with the Labor Party
Supported Operation Defense Shield
Michael Harish
Yatzhak Rabin
Shimon Peres
Ehud Barak
Amir Peretz
Yossi Beilin
3
27
3
1
Haim Amsalem
Founded in April 2011 after Haim Amsalem was expelled from Shas
Ran on a secular-religious unity platform
Daniel Hetrshkovitz
Yaakov Amidor
Founded in 2008
A right wing religious Zionist party
Haneen Zoubi
Jamal Zahalka
Azni Bishara
Wasil Taha
Founded in 1995
Wants an all-inclusive democracy
Objected to every state budget on the basis of discrimination against Arabs
Supports a Two State Solution based on 1967 borders and implementation of UN Resolution 194 in regard to refugees
Banned from the 2009 Israeli Central Election Committee
Ban overturned by the Supreme Court of Israel
Benny Begin
Ariel Sharon
Benjamin Netanyahu
Menachem Begin
Yitizhak Shamir
A right wing political party founded in 1973
Claims the right of settlement
Rejects a Palestinian state
Wants a united Jerusalem under Israeli control
Refuses to withdrawal from Golan Heights
appointed by the president
number of Justices varies depending on the Knesset
Oslo II
Hebron Protocol
Wye River Memorandum
Camp David Summit
Taba Summit
Arab Peace Initiative
The Roadmap for Peace
Israel Hamas Caesefire
2011 Reconciliation Agreement
2010 Direct Negotiations
Al-Aqsa Intifada
Won the Nobel Peace Prize for signing the Oslo Agreements
Pushed for withdrawal from Lebanon in 1984
Formally recognized PLO
Assassinated on November 4, 1995 by a radical right wing ultra-Orthodox Jew
Won the Nobel Peace Prize for participating in the Oslo Agreements
Former member of Haganah
Supported Sharon's military policy throughout the Intifada
Political realist
Former Israeli Ambassador to the UN
Withdrew after corruption scandal in 1999
Opposed to the Oslo Accords
Returned in 2002 as a minister in Sharon's Government
Former IDF military hero
Led operations to assassinate members of the PNA in 1973
Withdrew from Southern Lebanon in 2000
Resigned due to a failure to make any progress in regard to the Israel-Palestine issue
Current Defense Minister
Commander in IDF since it was created
Responsible for the Sabra and Shatila Massacres
Resigned after a severe stroke
Faced financial scandals in regard to his 1999 campaign
Withdrew from Gaza in 2004
Former mayor of Jerusalem
Criticized for mishandling Lebanon War
Supports the targeting of Hamas
Accused of corruption in 2007
Resigned in 2008
Water Rights
PNA
Executive Branch
Legislative Branch
established in 1993 in accordance to the Oslo Accords
President
Prime Minister
Yasser Arafat
Mahmoud Abbas
Salam Fayyad
Ismail Haniyeh
Ahmed Qurei
Nabil Shaath
Mahmoud Abbas
Cabinet
appoints
appoints
Palestinian Legislative Council
Approves of the cabinet and prime minister
A unicameral legislative council
132 seats
Mixed electoral system
50% elected via Party-list Proportional Representation system
50% elected by majority vote based on district seats
Minister of Information
Minister of Finance
Minister of Foreign Affairs
Minister of Civil Affairs
Minister of Economy
Minister of Agriculture
Minister of Education and Higher Education
Minister of Health
Minister of Housing and Public Works
Minister of Interior
Minister of Justice
Minister of Labour and Social Affairs
Minister of Planning
Minister of Tourism
Minister of Transport
Minister of Local Government
Minister of Prisoner Affairs
Minister of Religious Affairs
Minister of Telecommunications and Technology
Minister of Women's Affairs
Ministers without Portfolio
Secretary General
Speaker of the PLC
March 19, 2003-September 6, 2003
October 7, 2003- December 18, 2005
December 18, 2005- December 24, 2005
December 24, 2005- March 29, 2005
June 15, 2007- Incumbent
(Received his PhD at UT Austin)
March 29, 2006-Incumbent
The Ramallah Appeal & High Court is the nonfunctioning judiciary branch. It remains weak due to Israeli occupation and a strong connection to the executive branch.
Civil Society
Hamas
PLO
PFLP
Fida
ALF
Al Saiqa
PPP
DFLP
PLF
Fatah
Internal Politics
United States of America
United Nations
Syria
Lebanon
Jordan
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Arab League
Prime Minister from 1983-1984 & 1986-1992
Although he was against the Madrid Conference he attended after Bush (41) threatened to withhold loan guarantees
After the Madrid Conference, his government collapsed
Involved in the Oslo Accords
Nicknamed "Peres' Poodle"
Strongly involved in the Taba talks
In favor of negotiating with Palestinians
The Madrid Conference
Bilateral negotiations held in DC in 1992
Hosted by Spain
Cosponsored by US & USSR
PLO were not invited
Headed by Shamir, who was against talking to the PLO
Rabin, Peres & Beilin were for talking to the PLO
Negotiations based on UN Resolution 242
key players
Dr. Yair Hirschfeld
Dr. Ron Pundik
Ahmad Qurei (aka Abu Ala)
Uri Savir
Yoel Singer
Mahmoud Abbas (aka Abu Mazen)
Israeli Historian
Strong Supporter of a Two State Solution
Founded the Economic Cooperation Foundation in 1990
Israeli Historian
Current President of the Peres Center for Peace
Strongly Involved in the Beilin-Abu Mazen Agreement
Reported directly to Arafat in Tunis
General Director of the PLOs Economic Branch
Responsible for making the PLO one of the largest employers in Lebanon
Suspect to contraversy over receiving profit from the separation barrier
Not a part of the original negotiation team
Chief Negotiator at the Oslo Accords
Established the Peres Center for Peace
Not a part of the original negotiation team
Legal advisor to the Israeli Foreign Ministry
In 1998, he wrote an article to Ha'aretz called "Manipulating Arafat: Behind the scenes at Oslo-Recognizing the need for mutual recognition"
talks were slow
Israel started talks because they felt it would make negotiations with Syria over Golan Heights easier- "bicycle principle"
Peres proposed "Gaza First"
Arafat countered with "Jericho & Gaza First"
Oslo I set an agenda for negotiations governed by a timetable
Oslo I established mutual recognition and acceptance of UN Resolution 242
UN Resolution 242
Israeli transfer of power to newly established PNA in regards to education, health, welfare, direct taxation, and tourism
Discussion of military affairs and transfer of power to be held in Taba
Peres & Abbas were to meet in Cairo every 2-3 weeks
Elections to be held in 9 months (May 1994)
Negotiations on final status in 2 years (1995)
Permanent agreement in 5 years (1998)
Silent in regards to major issues: refugees, borders, Jerusalem, and settlements
Matrix of Control
Borders
Refugees
Jerusalem
Settlements
Gaza
Shebaa Farms
Golan Heights
Cairo Agreement
The Gaza- Jericho Agreement
Nabil Sha'ath
Major-General Amnon Lipkin Shahak
Egyptian citizen who taught in Beirut
Said to be "the real power behind Arafat's thrown"
Criticized for not caring about Palestinian Refugees and the Right of Return
Wanted an early and large transfer of power to PNA in order to start building a state
Chief of Staff of the Israeli Defense Force
Wanted an gradual and limited transfer of power
February 9, 1994
Agreed to steps of limited power
Israel agreed to redeploy troops from Gaza & Jericho, but not withdrawal
May 4, 1994
All power was trasferred to the PNA regarding health, social welfare, direct taxation, tourism, education, and culture in Palestinian areas
Israel redeployed troops from Gaza and Jericho
Augugst 20, 1993
No Peace Agreement with Israel
Progress was made in the 1990s, but Syria didn't acquiesce over the timeline for withdrawal and demands for security arrangements
In 2006, Syria threatened to help Hezbollah in the 2006 Lebanon war
Turkey organized peace talks, but Syria withdrew after Operation Cast Lead in 2008
Peace Agreement signed in 1994
Major issues between the two countries include borders, Jerusalem, water, security, and refugees
Offered "Warm Peace"
Peace Agreement signed in 1979
Offered "Cold Peace"
September 28, 1995
Agreed to by Arafat & Rabin
Called for elections to a legislative council
Israel withdrew its forced in Palestinian centers
Divided up Palestine into Zone A, Zone B, and Zone C
Under complete control by the PNA
About 15% of Palestine based on the 1967 borders
PNA controls civilian affairs
Israel controls security
About 25% of Palestine based on the 1967 borders
Under complete Israeli control
About 60% of Palestine based on the 1967 borders
A history of destorying the peace process
Increased home demolitions
Institution of curfews
Land confiscation
Settlement expansion
Opened the archeological tunnel in Jerusalem near Muslim holy sites in 1996
January 15, 1997
Agreed to by Arafat & Netanyahu
Split Hebron (aka. Al-Khalil) into Area H-1 and Area H-2
Similar to Area A
PNA has complete control but the IDF can enter when escorted by Palestinian Police Force
About 80% of the city
The same as Area C
Israel has complete control
About 20% of the city
Agreed to by Arafat & Netanyahu
Clinton invited King Hussein
Israel withdrew further from northern West Bank
Took 10 months to implement due to Zionist opposition
13 % of Area C transferred
1% Transferred to Area A
12% Transferred to Area B
Netanyahu's Three Nos
Withdrawal from Golan Heights
Discussion on the case of Jerusalem
Negotiations under any preconditions
October 23, 1998
July 11, 2000
Lasted 14 days
Barak acted more like a soldier than a diplomat with a "take it or leave it" approach
Arafat rejected offers but didn't come up with anything on his own
Arafat believed that Clinton and Barak were teaming up against him
Barak wanted 1) a Palestinian state based on the 1967 border but with annexation of settlement blocks 2) Right of return for refuges but only for family reunification and a limit of 500 a year 3) eventual return of Jordan Valley 4) Partitioned Jerusalem
Arafat was not satisfied with the right to return
Egypt and Saudi Arabia pushed Arafat to not give up rights to Muslim holy places in Jerusalem
No agreement was reached
September 28, 2000
Israeli Response
Palestinian Response
Separation Barrier
Imprisonment
Curfews
Checkpoints
Destruction of Infrastructure
Repression of Protests
Strikes
Qassam Rockets
Suicide Bombings
Attacks on Settlers
Attacks on Military
Protests
Detention of Arafat
Boycotts
In July 2011, Israel passed a law that bans organizations that organize or support boycotts against Israel
Assassinations
Israel uses 73% of the water from West Bank aquifers
Palestinians use 17% of the water from the West Bank aquifers
Settlers use 10% of the water from the West Bank aquifers
Israeli Only Roads
In 2008, there were 794 kilometers of "bypass roads"
Each "bypass road" restricts access to all and within 50-75 m
Led to great losses in agricultural land
Isolates villages and towns
Has created segregated ghettos
There are 44 tunnels 40 kilometers of "Fabric for life" roads, which are controlled by Israel
Checkpoints
In 2008, there were 699 closures
A form of collective punishment
Movement is controlled by Israel
Red Crescent reported 112 deaths
& 35 stillbirths as a result of checkpoints
69 women have given birth at checkpoints
Home Demolitions
Settlement Blocks
Separation Barrier
121 settlements in the West Bank
12 settlments in East Jerusalem
Over 100 illegal outposts
Blockade
Flotilla
Operation Cast Lead
Operation Rainbow
Operation Days of Penitence
Operation Summer Rains
Shalit
Operation Autumn Clouds
Operation Hot Winter
Kidnapped by militant members of Hamas on June 25, 2006
A French & Israeli national who is also a soldier in the IDF
Used by Hamas as a major bargaining chip for a release of prisoners
On February 27, 2008, Hamas, the Popular Resistance Committee, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad fired rockets into Ashkelon which knocked out a power line, but did NOT physically hurt anyone
From February 29-March 1, 2008, the IDF carried out attacks
Casualties included about 70 Palestinian civilians including women and children, about 5o Palestinian militants and 2 Israeli soldiers
Demographics
Israel carried out attacks from June 28, 2006 to July 6, 2006 in response to rocket fire and the capture of Shalit
Casualties include about 120 Palestinian civilians including women and children, about 280 Palestinian militants and 5 IDF soldiers (although one incident was due to friendly fire)
Amnesty International claims that Israel committed war crimes due to their collective punishment of the Gaza population
On May 11-12, 11 IDF soldiers were killed at Rafah Crossing
Israel invaded the Southern Gaza strip from May 13-24, 2004
Destroyed 116 houses in Rafah Camp
Rafah Camp is the 2nd largest Palestinian Refugee Camp with 99,000 inhabitants
IDF reported that 41 militants and 12 civilians were killed
From November 1-7, 2006, the IDF attacked Northern Gaza in order to eradicate Qassam rockets
UN expressed concern over the shelling of Bein Hanoun
53 Palestinians (including 16 civilians) and an IDF soldier were killed
From September 30-October 16, 2004, Israel invated the Northern Gaza Strip after Qassam rockets killed two children in Serdot
5 Israelis consisting of two children, one civilian and two soldiers were killed
133 Palestinians were killed including 31 children
431 Palestinian civilians including 138 children were injured
2 UN teachers were killed
91 homes were destroyed
50% of arable land in Beit Hanoun was destroyed
On June 29, 2008, Egypt borkered a Six Month Lull
On November 4, 2008 Israel launched an attack to destroy tunnels, from there conflict escalated
From December 27, 2008 to January 21, 2009, Israel invaded and bombed the Gaza strip
On January 16, UNRWA headquarters were hit with white phosphorus
1,385 Palestinians were killed; of those, 762 were civilians including 318 children
More than 5,300 Palestinians were injured
3,500 homes were destroyed making 20,000 homeless
Three Israeli citizens and ten IDF soldiers were killed but four of those deaths were caused by friendly fire
About a dozen citizens and over 100 IDF soldiers were injured
The Gaza Freedom Flotilla was attacked in international waters by the IDF on May 31, 2000 killing nine activists and wounding many others
10 IDF soldiers were injured
The event severely harmed Turkish-Israeli relations
In June 2007, Israel and Egypt instituted an air, land, & sea blockade of Gaza Srip
Banned items include cement, fertilizer, wood for furniture, chocolate, canned fruit, fruit juice, jam, plastic toys, and textiles
1/2 of the Gaza population is dependent upon food provided by UNRWA
Food distribution is randomly suspended due to fuel shortages and border closures
80% of the water is not up to WHO standards
WHO states that 15-30% of essential drugs are out of stock and 21% of patients are denied treatment due to a lack of resources
In 2005, IDF soldiers evicted 8,500 settlers in Gaza Strip resulting in a 54 year old settler setting herself on fire
The Gaza Strip is 146 square miles
In 2011, 1,657,000 people live in the Gaza Strip
About 1,000,000 residents are refugees
44% are under 18
Medium age is 17.7
Population growth rate is 3.2%
99% is Sunni Muslim
1% is Christian (Greek Orthodox & Catholic)
208,000 Palestinians live in East Jerusalem
Israel's Basic law states that Jerusalem will be Israel's undivided capital
Palestinians see East Jerusalem as their future capital
43% of the Palestinian population are refugees
38% of the refugees in Gaza are in poverty
18% of the refugees in the West Bank are in poverty
Construction began June 16, 2002
760 km long
Once complete it will "de facto" annex 11% of the West Bank
70,000 in the West Bank and 200,000 in East Jerusalem are between the Green Line and the Wall, isolating 78 communities
Over 40,000 Palestinian homes have been demolished
Formed in 1990 after spilting from DFLP
No armed wing
Slogan is "freedom, independence, return, democracy and socialism"
Founded in 1967
Considered a terrorist organization
Second largest party in the PLO
Currently boycotting the PLO
Founded in 1969 as a front for the Iraqi Ba'ath Party
Opposed the Oslo Accords
A Syrian Ba'athist party founded in 1968
Originally the second largest party in Palestine
Currently boycotting the PLO
A socialist organization founded in 1919
The only PLO member that was not a part of the fedayeen
Advocate for the Oslo Accords
A secular Marxist-Leninist organization founded in 1969 when PFLP started to question Marxist-Leninist theory
Leadership is based in Damascus
Founded in 1967 with Syrian support
Considered a terrorist organization
Opposed the Oslo Accords
Left wing political group
Strongest group in the PLO
Considered a terrorist group until 1988
January 21, 2001
Negotiated under the Clinton Parameters
Discussed refugees, security, borders and Jerusalem
In regards to refugees, Israel would not agree to a right of return
In regards to Jerusalem, Palestinians would not agree to give up Mt. Olive and the "Holy Basin" in East Jerusalem
Talks broke down on January 27 after U.S. and Israeli presidential elections
In regards to security, it was agreed that the PNA should be nonmilitarized
March 28, 2002 & March 28, 2007
Proposed by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia at the Arab League
States within the Arab League would normalize relations with Israel if it would withdrawal from Occupied Palestine and have a reasonable solution in regards to refugees
Rejected by Netanyahu and Likud
Syria did not initially support the initiative because it believed that Palestinians should have a right to armed resistance
June 24, 2002
June 19, 2008
September 1, 2010
April 27, 2011
Secret meetings took place in Cairo between Fatah and Hamas
Agreed to legislative and presidential elections in a year
Lack of progress due to disagreements over who will lead the interim government
Elections to be held in 2012
Headed by George Mitchell
Talks stoped after increased settlement construction and Operation Cast Lead
In the 1980s Israel recruited Ethiopians to set up settlements in Shebaa
Although Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, Israel still maintains presence in Shebaa
Issued on November 22, 1967
Call for withdrawal from occupied territories and the right for peace
By 2015, Palestinians will be a majority
Likud Knesset speaker Reuven Rivlin supported the concept of a One State Solution
PPP, PFLP and al-Mabadara under the leadership of Mustafa Barghouti have shown interest in the One State Solution

A Two State Solution is becoming less viable due to Israeli matrix of control
PLO is currently working on establishing a state by being recognized by the United Nations

Split in the Palestinian State
In January 2006, Hamas won 74 seats in the parlimentary elections
In March 2006, Isam'il Haniyya was sworn in as Prime Minister
In June 2006, Hamas ministers are detained
In March 2007, the Palestinian National Unity Government is formed excluding Hamas
In June 2007, Hamas takes control of Gaza
Political Opportunity Structures
Open political space
Social movement spillover
Split of elites
Mobilizing Structures
Moral resources
Social-organizational resources
Human resources
Cultural Resources
Cultural Framing
Palestine is waqf
Islam is the solution
Jewish conspiracy
The peace process will fail on its own
Hamas provides authentic nationalism
"Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya" or the Islamic Resistance Movement
Founded in 1987 with origins of the Muslim Brotherhood
Calls for destruction of Israel as a Jewish state and the creation of an Islamic state
Financed mainly by Saudi Arabia, Iran, and local and international NGOs
Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades
Hamas' military wind founded in 1992
Receive training in Syria and Iran
Autonomous from other wings
Social Welfare
90% of the Hamas budget according to the Council on Foreign Relations
Responsible for the construction of schools and providing health care
Majlis al-Shura
Based in Damascus
Political and administrative wing of Hamas
A parliamentary organization founded in 1964
Considered a terrorist organization until the Madrid Conference
Internationally recognized as the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people
November 11, 2004-January 15, 2005
July 5, 1994-November 11, 2004
Rawhi Fatton
Aziz Duwaik
January 15, 2005-Current
January 15, 2009- Current
Reported to Arafat
First Palestinian Prime Minister
It has been claimed by Abu Daoud that he unknowingly funded the 1972 Munich Massacre
Judiciary Branch
No discussion of issues regarding a final settlement
Called for cessation of settlement construction
Declared that Palestinian aggression against Israel must stop (but not vice versa)
Rejected by both sides
http://www.btselem.org/download/20110612_btselem_map_of_wb_eng.pdf
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