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Competitive Community Analysis

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by

Austin Ray

on 2 August 2013

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Transcript of Competitive Community Analysis

Competitive Community Analysis
Durbin Crossing
2,000 gross acres, approx. 1,000 acres developable
2,500 homes at build out
300-400 total lots left
85% developed and sold
Total build out in 18 months
Builders
Dennis Dream Finders
Drees D. S. Ware
Mattamy Providence
Richmond American Riverside
40', 50', and 70' lots remain
Conclusions
Durbin Crossing is 85% built - out
The Durbin offering is not superior to Nocatee
The housing product is comparable
Nocatee has better location and amenities
Total CDD fees for a typical 70’ lot is $2,950 versus $2,004 at Nocatee
Durbin had concentrated momentum during the downturn, but Nocatee didn’t pick up pace until 2012
Since January 2011:
51% of Durbin sales were in larger (70’ and 80’) lots
Home price per square foot is between 3% and 10% lower than Nocatee
Builders at Durbin are constructing more square footage on lots
On average, lot prices at Durbin (as of % of total price) were 22.7% compared to 20.5% at Nocatee. However, on a front foot basis, Durbin was $1,104 on average compared to $1,056 at Nocatee.
While Nocatee builders are paying less for lots, the total price per square foot is higher at Nocatee
In the first quarter of 2013, Durbin lots sold for $1,105 per front foot compared to $1,075 at Nocatee (with a 20% true-up)
50
60
50
70
70-80
Aberdeen
900 lots in Phase 1, 800 of which are sold to retail buyers
738 lots in Phase 2, primarily 50s
About 850 total lots left, several years of inventory
Value priced product - heavily weighted to 50' lots
Paving Phase 2 now
Phase 1 Builders:
Drees Dream Finders
D. R. Horton Providence
D. S. Ware Richmond American
Dennis

Conclusions
Maintained 19-23% lot price as a percentage of selling price
Primarily smaller, value priced homes ($92 / SF)
Almost half of development is 50' lots
50', 60', 70', and 80' lots
Homes sell for average of $90,000 cheaper than homes in Nocatee built on same sized lot
Inferior amenities and location
St Johns Forest
Offer 60', 70', and 80' lots
32 lots remaining as of June 1
70
50
70
60
80
60
50
Builders:
Providence Taylor Morrison
David Weekley ICI
In recent months, 80' lots have been most popular
Conclusions
No 40' or 50' lots developed
539 total single family homes at build out
435 gross acres
Did not raise lot prices much in the past 2 years
Murabella
Offer 60', 70', and 80' lots
959 total single family home sites
797 homes sold to date
Builders:
Cornerstone Dream Finders
D. R. Horton KB Homes
Dennis Richmond American
Southern Lifestyle Standard Pacific
Primarily 70s and 80s remain
Conclusions
Las Calinas
Approximately 500 total single family homes at full build out
250 lots remaining (developed and undeveloped)
Almost 90% of community is controlled by Taylor Morrison
Offer 50', 60', 70', and 80' lots
2.5 months of developed lot inventory (next phase right behind)
Builders:
Taylor Morrison
Dostie
Advantage

Conclusions
Larger product has been most popular
Future development will consist of 70's (site agent states that 70s are most popular)
Product is value-priced (80' = $274,334)
40' TND
50'
60'
70'
50'
50', 60', 70'
50', 70', 80'
70'
Rivertown
4,170 gross acres in DRI
232 developed lots , 143 available
Builders:
David Weekley
Dennis
Mattamy
Conclusions
Lot price for the past year was only 15% of total selling price - average of $663 per front foot
Only researched community (aside from Nocatee) with rear-loaded product
Oakleaf Plantation
6,400 gross acres (1,400 preserved)
1,000 + developed lots currently available
Builders:
Lennar Pulte
Standard Pacific Richmond American
Drees D. R. Horton
Mattamy
Conclusions
40', 50', 60', 70', and 80' lots
Lots sold for average of 16% of total selling price
1,638 total single family lots at build out
On average, lot price was 17% of selling price
$719-$813 / FF in past year
Average home price per SF is comparable to Nocatee
All lots have been developed and sold to builders
On average, lot sales in the past year were $548 per front foot, and home price per SF was $91
Lot sales as a percentage of total selling price was only 16% on average
Community was hit hard during the downturn
No CDD
Relatively low selling price per square foot ($94)
CDD assessment of $2,437 compared to Nocatee's $2,004
Inferior amenities with a CDD assessment of $2,525 compared to Nocatee's $2,004
CDD debt assessment is comparable to Nocatee
Total CDD assessment of $1,815 compared to $2,004 at Nocatee
Bartram Park Preserve
Mattamy purchased undeveloped land in Bartram
435 total single family home lots (218 in first phase, 217 in second)
Completed phase 1 lot development, have sold 14 homes of the first phase to homebuyers
40', 50', and 60' lots
Palencia
1,450 total acres in community
2,642 home sites
Approximately 250 single family home sites recently developed and being sold by ICI (60s and 70s)
60
70
Development order allows for 3,700 SF units, 800 MF units, 100,000 SF of office, and 300,000 SF of retail
Selling price per SF is an average of $101 compared to $110 at Nocatee
Average price per SF is $91
Average lot price per front foot is $620
Most residential land is developed
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
*Data ranges from April 1,2012 - March 31,2013
Full transcript