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Thesis Article Presentation

December 3rd
by

Sam Toepfer

on 13 November 2012

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Transcript of Thesis Article Presentation

INCLUDING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IN A TIME SERIES MODEL TO FORECAST HURRICANE MOVEMENT Article Presentation Sam Toepfer AUTHOR: TIMOTHY B. MOTT WHY IS HURRICANE FORECASTING IMPORTANT? WHAT IS HURRICANE FORECASTING?
- using mathematical models to predict where and when a hurricane will hit


- Meteorological vs. Statistical - An accurate forecast of a tropical storm can be the difference in hundreds of lives

- Can also allow people more time to prepare their property for the conditions NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
(NHC) - United States agency

- located in Coral Gables, Florida

- combine hundreds of computer models to come up with the most accurate forecasts BACKGROUND INFORMATION DR. THOMAS CURRY'S MODEL FOR PREDICTING HURRICANE LANDFALL - wanted to improve outdated models
too slow
too inaccurate

-time series analysis

-the use of past conditions, locations, and tracks of hurricanes TIME SERIES ANALYSIS Mott, T. B. (1993, March). Including Maximum
Sustained Wind Speed in a Time Series Model to Forecast Hurricane Movement (Master's Thesis No. AFIT/GOR/ENS/93M-14). Wright- Patterson AFB, OH: Air Force Institute of Technology. Works Cited Questions? HURRICANE ANDREW HURRICANE IRENE Hurricane Ivan Standard Notation * looks at history
* looks for patterns
* order is crucial
Yt
Yt+1
Yt-1
Full transcript