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Transcript of T-Systems Exponentials
Free Space Optical (FSO) at 160 gigabits (Pisa)
THZ radio link at 3 Gbps, some day 30 Gbps
Time for “Glass Roots” to enable real competition
Fiber now 255 Tbits
per second with
calls at once!
Picocell approach offers unlimited bandwidth
Haas: Wireless through LED bulbs
Reardon claims “DIDO” system offers full bandwidth to every device in the room
Low power “personal area networks” coming
Spectrum allocation becoming obsolete
But others want to auction and own it
Network “management” & neutrality
Battles more political than technical
GPUs generating too much heat
Portability requires low power
Contact lens projector the holy grail
Registration on real world difficult
VR sports, gaming & shopping
Augmented/Alternate reality games
User Interface Breakthroughs
Replacement for the keyboard needed
Speech Recognition,, natural language & translate
Siri, Watson still have far to go
Gesture interfaces from 3-D cameras
Displays & touch
All while small & efficient
The ball-n-chain: System Administration
Is the Apple “walled garden” the only answer?
Improve performance in face of complexity
Provide real time operations
Cloud computing and apps
Software development needs better re-use
"The Internet of Things"
Brad Templeton, Computing Track Chair
Chip-Multiprocessors: “Single-Chip Cloud” Datacenter on a Chip
48 (45 nm)
Chip-Multiprocessors: High Performance Technical Computing
32 cores X 16-wide-vector ≈ 1 TFLOPS peak
2 (32 nm)
8 (32 nm)
Images courtesy of Cisco
End of rapid scaling of single threaded code
At least it’s still scaling up – 10-15%/year is great
40%/year speedups for parallel software on parallel hardware through 2020
Assuming energy/computation falls 40%/year?!
Great disruptions in status quo bring great opportunities
Moore’s Law Forecast
Automatic parallelization: not any time soon
Legacy code “renovation” is very challenging
Serial assumptions are baked throughout many abstraction layers / programming interfaces
E.g. Windows’ GUI thread “pulls you in”
Prefer to chase new rainbows
New experiences and new scalable features achieved by composition of old with new
Prospects for Parallelization of Legacy Software?
What else can we do with billions of transistors?
Idea: chip-multiprocessors (CMP)
Tile die with 2, 4, … CPU cores – 2X cores/2y
Simpler cores -> even more cores
Finesse power with lower V, lower freq, sleep
Finesse memory wall with memory parallelism
“We can’t think of anything better, so let’s see if programmers can make these things work!”
Towards the Next 100X:
Explicit Parallelism – Multi-Core
[The Manycore Revolution, SciDAC Review, Fall 2009]
Serif's and scattering bars
Cheaper, Smaller, Lower Power
1,000 distinct apps
Moore's Law on Everything
What makes an exponential revolution?
Insatiable market demand for doubling, little demand for incremental improvement
Platforms with a
Culture of Innovation
"Software is eating the world"
- Marc Andreessen
Software lets you virtualize the physical
Takes you above hardware and infrastructure
The flexibility allows you to delay decisions
What fraction of the Fortune 500 would be off the list in 10 years, according to Babson Olin School of Business?
10%? 25%? 40% 60%?
But 15 steps -- halfway -- is only 20 miles!
(2014: back from bankruptcy,
13K employees, $770M cap)
3 parking spaces per car, 60% of land in LA
Over 25% of USA energy budget, more of the CO2
1.7 light years driving!
They are coming
Cars galore with:
Lane keeping warning/assist
Automatic Cruise Control
Pedestrian and collision detection/warning/braking
Programmers can save the world
What car do I need
"The right vehicle for the trip"
Mostly an ultralight
Buy what you use, not what you might need
Your car rents itself out
Or don't buy at all
All the economics of cars change
Greener than transit…
Time for Apollo-like resolve
Robots don't care how convenient it is to refuel
Enables all alternative fuels
200 million tons CO2
Ending overseas oil imports
Must not be over-regulated
Jurisdictions will compete
Possibly Singapore, China, India, Israel, Japan
Children, the aged, the Drunk
They don’t park they stand.
Can stand in driveways, in front of hydrants, double and triple parked
The more cars on road, the more road capacity
Brad Templeton, Singularity University
So NOT speaking for Google
Comes to transportation
Competing Innovators vs. 19th century approaches
Mike & Maaike
A pleasant work environment, face to face
No central control or new infrastructure
The "poor man's teleporter"
What car do I need for my life?
Plus 100 cars in Gothenberg in 2017
iPhone Speed or Industrial Speed?
One Vital Italian Product
The existing big players rarely survive.
40% of fatalities due to drinking
Netherlands: 640 deaths
and 162 cyclists
Germany: 3,400 deaths
(about 65% of USA per km)
2.4M accidents, 377K injuries, 67K serious
167 deaths, down from 400 10 years ago
(About 30% better per km than USA)
(down 50% from 2001)
Double UK, 4x Netherlands, 30% better than USA
Most dangerous city in Europe?
From 3500, 10 years ago
~40% of USA per km or per car
7,168 Injuries, 160 fatalities
Almost double US rate per vehicle
Some studies say 275,000
many times rate per car than USA
Half of US
US: Kill 34,000 people each year - #3 in years of life lost
NHTSA: $871 billion cost of accidents ($600B suffering) - 9% of GDP, 29 cents/mile (0,16 €/km)
50 billion hours spent driving - 8% of GDP
Canada: 2000 deaths, 150K injuries (Just under USA per km)
India: 142,000 people -- worst in the world.
Similar per capita, but 7x worse, per car, than the USA. 5L seriously injured.
1.2 million killed per year
1. Retain Traditional Cars
2. Buy private robocars
3. Buy a better car, hire it out
4. Summon Robotaxi
(at first instead of 2nd car)
A car with a computer
A computer with wheels
$70B from Hyundai
Same as USA
2.5x the rate per km!
Repairs & Service
4 million accidents
wrong way in
8% of accidents
4x USA death rate
1.7m km real driving
3x USA rate per person
11x USA rate per car
2x USA per car
Much more per km
1/2 per person
Just under USA per km
almost 2x USA per car