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Influenza Rapid Risk Assessment

Free Prezi template for creating a workflow related presentation. Describe a process and all the necessary steps one has to complete. Download the file from Prezibase.com or save a copy right here

Shuwan Jian

on 27 August 2014

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Transcript of Influenza Rapid Risk Assessment

Influenza Virologic Risk Assessment Tool
Flu Threat!
Risk element identification
Who provide information for the IRAT?
Attributes of the population
Ecology and epidemiologic considerations
Expert scoring& weighting
Download this free template
Identify key gaps in information / knowledge and focus research
Assist with clear documentation of thought process
Provide a useful tool for the influenza community
Focus risk manegement efforts
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H6N1, H9N2, H7N7, H7N2, H7N3, H10N7
A virus on the verge?
Influenza risk assessment tool
Predict the next pandemic
Remove the need for subject matter expertise
Make precise risk estimate
What it can NOT do
Independent of each other
A minimum number of elements

Veterinary Health Experts
Public Health Experts
Laboratory Experts
Field Epidemiologists
3 categories of elements
Properties of the virus
Attributes of the population
Ecology & Epidemiology
Properties of the virus
Genomic variation
Receptor binding
Transmission in lab animals
Antiviral/treatment susceptibility/ resistance
Existing population immunity in humans
Disease severity and pathogenesis
Antigenic relationship to vaccine candidates
Global distribution among animal species
Infection in animal species
Human infections
-Animal-human interaction
-Human to Human
Rank higher: weight greater
Scoring based on evidence:
Low risk [1-3]
Moderate risk [4-7]
High risk [8-10]

Influenza Risk Assessment Tool
IRAT developed by CDC and external influenza experts to assess the relative risks of influenza viruses that circulate in animals and cause rare human infections
Developed to help guide risk management decisions
IRAT makes potential pandemic risk assessment on “emergence” and “public health impact”
-Emergence: What is the risk that a “novel” influenza virus has the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission?
-Public Health Impact: If the virus were to achieve sustained human-to-human transmission, what will be the potential relative impact in the population?

Khazeni, et al Annals of Internal medicine, May 2014
Infections and deaths per day depending on timing of vaccination and mortality rate
Full transcript