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Introduction to Crime Analysis
Transcript of Introduction to Crime Analysis
What is Crime Analysis?
What it is not
It looks more like this
There have been 5 similar Residential B&E’s in the Wilmington Road area between March 12 and April 17. Entry has been gained through smashing rear windows with rocks or by cutting window screens. Jewelry is the item of choice for the thief or thieves.
If we don’t see a break Friday or Saturday then Tuesday April 28 will be a very likely day. As each day passes the odds for the next date will increase significantly right up until Sunday May 3rd. If we go past May 5th without a break it is likely that our offender has been caught or has moved to another area.
It is probable that our offender lives or works within a short distance of the midpoint on the map. In cities this is usually 1.5 blocks from the offenders’ home in about 90% of cases. Our last series that was very similar to this was carried out by a suspect from Sheldon Street
As more of these happen we will be able to make a more accurate prediction about where and when the following break will occur. Please try to get the narrowest time of day range and method of entry into the log ASAP so that this is easier to update.
And kinda like this
Lieutenant Glen Mills
Police Patrol Lieutenant / Burlington Police Department
President - Massachusetts Association of Crime Analysts
MACA / IACA
Law Enforcement Analysts
The map below shows these breaks. The points with dots are breaks and the single point in the middle is the center of the activity.
The highlighted box is a Geographic Profile showing an area where there is a 68% chance for the next B&E in this series.
Because there was no B&E reported today on 4/21 the odds are that the next B&E will likely occur on Friday April 24 or Saturday April 25.
There are still 2 reports pending but time of day appears to be between 11:00 and 12:00 hrs. I would recommend watching the area between 10:00 and 13:00 hrs.