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Options for global agricultural trade after Nairobi

Presentation at the IFPRI Policy Seminar, FEB 23 2016 http://www.ifpri.org/event/options-global-agricultural-trade-after-nairobi
by

David Laborde

on 11 January 2017

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Transcript of Options for global agricultural trade after Nairobi

From Bali to Nairobi:
What was really achieved?

An evolving landscape:
The 2008 framework
Bali: better than nothing
Multilateral framework still alive
No progress on market access, and domestic support and export subsidies
Key outcomes:
Agreement on Trade Facilitation (WT/MIN(13)/W/8)
Public Stockholding for Food Security Purposes (WT/MIN(13)/W/10)
Post Bali Work program to be defined to prepare Nairobi and conclude the Round
Reaching Nairobi with minimal expectations
2014 was lost due to opposition regarding the Bali outcomes: ATF protocol adoption vs Public stockholding situation clarified;
November 2014: "final agreement" regarding ATF, Peace Clause regarding Public Stockholding s
ine die
, negotiations on an independent track
New deadline for the work program: July 2015
ATF protocol: since in a ratification process by member states. Only 70 in Feb. 2016 (India Feb. 17). Needs 2/3 of the members to take effects.
So, minimal expectations for the First WTO MC in Africa, during the Development Round.
No convergence on key topics: domestic support, SSM
Pressures from the mega-trade deals (TPP, TTIP)
Nairobi Outcomes
Elimination of Export Subsidies; disciplines on other export promotion instruments
Opening the door to a price and
quantity
SSM
Cotton, LDC issues (RoO)

plurilateral
” talks among 53 WTO members to expand the product coverage of the Information Technology Agreement (ITA)
Failure on Fisheries subsidies
Future
: Members agreed to disagree.
Options for global agricultural trade after Nairobi

David Laborde, MTID, IFPRI

More in Laborde and Martin (2013)
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/agricultural-trade-what-matters-doha-round
Even with "flexibilities", an ambitious agenda: annual gain of
$bn 120
for the world economy
Agriculture weights half of the potential gains
Significant effects on Global Agricultural Trade:
More in Diaz-Bonilla and Laborde (2014)
More in Diaz-Bonilla and Laborde (2015)
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/bali-agreement-last-assessment-perspective-developing-countries
Concluding Remarks
The multilateral framework is not dead, but the Doha Round ?
No capacity to deliver on the core topics: but nothing new. Significant flaws in design, see:
Bouet and Laborde (2004, 2011)
Laborde and Martin (2015)
WTO and stronger discipline are needed:
Countries Coordination and Price Volatility
Institutions and agreements are here to avoid countries to “forget” good behavior
the value of binding tariffs
Balancing the system:
Complex political economy with changing relative powers and roles
Role of individual country behavior and contribution to global goods (Global Trading System and Food Security):
discipline on export restrictions?
How to lock in individual efforts?
Small steps better than Ambitious Round
https://www.ifpri.org/publication/why-doha-development-agenda-failing-and-what-can-be-done-1
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/formulas-failure
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/catastrophic-flood-or-inoffensive-drizzle-assessing-impact-countries-using-existing
"We recognize that many Members
reaffirm
the Doha Development Agenda, and the Declarations and Decisions adopted at Doha and at the Ministerial Conferences held since then, and reaffirm their full commitment to conclude the DDA on that basis. Other Members
do not

reaffirm
the Doha mandates, as they believe new approaches are necessary to achieve meaningful outcomes in multilateral negotiations.
Members have different views on how to address the negotiations
".

Nairobi declaration, WTO MC 10.

A favorable decade for Ag. Prices
Market shares in Global Trade in Calories
Assessing the cost of policy space:
what if
countries used their pre-Nairobi commitments
Impact on world prices
Impact on Ag. Investment (annual, %)
Income effects: better-off with Global Food Stamps
http://ebrary.ifpri.org/cdm/ref/collection/p15738coll2/id/31360
Bouet and Laborde, 2008, 2012
Full transcript