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2016 3-Year Economic Outlook for Anchorage

Presented July 27, 2016 at the Dena'ina Center by AEDC President & CEO Bill Popp.
by

AEDC Anchorage, AK

on 14 June 2017

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Transcript of 2016 3-Year Economic Outlook for Anchorage

Outlook Luncheon
Gift Bag Sponsor
2016
Bill Popp, President & CEO
July 27, 2016
2016
JOBS
1,000
5.0%
AVG. UNEMPLOYMENT
2015

HEALTH CARE
TRANSPORTATION
RETAIL
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
INFORMATION
2016
-900
JOBS
-0.6%
DECLINE
2015 EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS
through June 2015
through June 2016
2016
3-Year Outlook
ANCHORAGE POPULATION OUTLOOK
ANCHORAGE EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK
ANCHORAGE PERSONAL INCOME
ANC AIR PASSENGER VOLUME
ANC AIR FREIGHT VOLUME
BUILDING PERMIT VALUES
PORT OF ANCHORAGE VOLUME
JOBS
2004-2019
Source: State of Alaska, Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
2004-2019

Source: State of Alaska, Department of Labor and Workforce Development, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
2004-2019
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2004-2014. McDowell Group forecast, 2015-2019.
Source: Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
2004-2019
2004-2019
Source: Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
2004-2019
Source: Municipality of Anchorage, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
2004-2019
Source: Port of Anchorage, 2004-2015. McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019.
ANCHORAGE VISITOR INDUSTRY
AVERAGE ANS CRUDE OIL PRICES
ANS West Coast, Yearly $ Per Barrel, 2004-2019
Source: Alyeska Pipeline Service Company, 2004-2015; State of Alaska, Department of Revenue, 2004-2015; McDowell Group forecast, 2016-2019, based on averages of Energy Information Administration, World Banks and State of Alaska forecasts.
Sponsored by:
2016 Q2
ANCi
Anchorage Consumer
Optimism Index
sponsored by:
ANCHORAGE CONSUMER
ANCHORAGE CONSUMER
2016 Q2
2011-2016
THANK YOU!
All reports available on www.AEDCweb.com
ANCHORAGE CONSUMER
BED TAX + CAR/RV RENTAL TAX
2004-2016

Source: Municipality of Anchorage, 2004-2015. McDowell Group estimate, 2016.
+500
+100
FLAT
HEALTH CARE
RETAIL
GOVERNMENT
TRANSPORTATION
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
+100
+200
+100
+200
-200
OTHER SERVICES
OIL & GAS
PROFESSIONAL &
BUSINESS SERVICES
CONSTRUCTION
UPDATE
Employment Numbers
sponsored by:
sponsored by:
sponsored by:
Local Economy Confidence:
Personal Financial Confidence:
Future Expectations:
50.8
65.7
38.2
OPTIMISM INDEX
OPTIMISM INDEX
OPTIMISM INDEX
Jeffrey Hayzlett
Author, "Think Big, Act Bigger"
speaker co-sponsors:
INTRODUCING:
CONSTRUCTION
OIL & GAS
MANUFACTURING
manufacturing
information
financial activities
FLAT
+600
compiled by :
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
($million)
Sponsored by:
Sponsored by:
48.2
Q2
2015
PROFESSIONAL &
BUSINESS
SERVICES
-100
+300
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
-300
Compiled by:
+300
-600
Trans Alaska Pipeline System Throughput, 2004-2015
-100
-100
GOVERNMENT
OTHER SERVICES
+400
@AEDC
live-tweeting
#AEDCLunch

AEDC 3-Year
($ billions)
(millions)
(million short tons)
($ millions)

(million short tons)
We are headed for the deepest recession in Alaska's history.
TOP 10 STATES
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
States Ranked by 2015 Real GDP
($ billions)
BOTTOM 10 STATES
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
States Ranked by 2015 Real GDP
($ billions)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
States Ranked by Percent Change
in Real GDP
TOP 10 STATES, 2014-2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
States Ranked by Percent Change
in Real GDP
BOTTOM 10 STATES, 2014-2015
As of 6/30/16
Source: American Bankruptcy Institute
Alaska Annual Bankruptcy Filings
ALASKA BANKS & CREDIT UNIONS
Source: FDIC & NCUA
Annual Cash on Deposit
($ billions)
YTD Total, 10-Year Comparison
Source: Anchorage MLS
Anchorage Single Family Home Listings
YTD, 10-Year Comparison
Source: Anchorage MLS
Anchorage Single Family Home Monthly Unit Sales
YTD, 10-Year Comparison
Source: Anchorage MLS
Anchorage Single Family Total Unit Sales
YTD, 10-Year Comparison
Source: Anchorage MLS
Anchorage Single Family Home Average Sales Price
-600
-700
YTD UNEMPLOYMENT
5.5%
Sponsored by
Sponsored by
Sponsored by
Sponsored by
Sponsored by
2nd Quarter
Initial Unemployment Claims in Alaska
Sponsored by
2nd Quarter
Continuing Unemployment Claims in Alaska
12 Months Ending May 2016
Source: CoreLogic
Completed Home Foreclosures - Worst Five States
12 Months Ending May 2016
Source: CoreLogic
Completed Home Foreclosures - Best Five States/DC
Is it too late
to sell my house?
A $1,000 PFD will cost Alaska thousands of jobs.
Is my money safe in Alaska banks?
It's 1986 all over again!
In summary:
27 years of steady economic growth has come to an end in 2015
The pinch is ongoing and likely to continue through 2017
Anchorage’s return to growth possible by 2019
While painful, the pinch is not a punch!
Even in a downturn there will be opportunities
Now is not the time for a NAP. We need to fix State finances now!
Full transcript